For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Kansas City Chiefs 40 at Jacksonville Jaguars 26. Final.
Chiefs -3.5 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 1
Kansas City Chiefs 40, Jaguars 26 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:36, 3rd and 3, on S.Watkins — 15.8 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
90°F
Chiefs closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 14.
Kansas City Chiefs 40–26. Biggest swing: Q1 13:36, Chiefs +15.8% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:36 · 3rd and 3
S.Watkins
Chiefs
(13:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.CharkJaguarsQ1 5:31(5:31) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-D.Chark for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
10.8pts
S.WatkinsChiefsQ1 2:45(2:45) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.68 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at +0.30 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.41 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at +0.20 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 53% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Chiefs158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(13:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −15.8 for JaguarsExpected points −6.56 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 21 points higher than the market did.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:36JAX +16% win prob(13:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:31JAX +11% win prob(5:31) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep right to 17-D.Chark for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-C.Jones].
1st · 2:45JAX +9% win prob(2:45) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 14-S.Watkins for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 7:56JAX +6% win prob(7:56) 15-G.Minshew pass deep middle to 17-D.Chark to KC 6 for 69 yards (35-C.Ward).
3rd · 8:59KC +6% win prob(8:59) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 27-L.Fournette to KC 26 for no gain (54-D.Wilson). FUMBLES (54-D.Wilson), RECOVERED by KC-21-B.Breeland at KC 26. 21-B.Breeland to KC 40 for 14 yards (12-D.Westbrook).
1st · 7:41JAX +5% win prob(7:41) (Shotgun) 7-N.Foles pass deep middle to 18-C.Conley to JAX 38 for 21 yards (35-C.Ward; 22-J.Thornhill). PENALTY on KC-22-J.Thornhill, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 38.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
S.Watkins's 68-yard touchdown catch with 13:36 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 12 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:36S.Watkins·68-yd TD catch68-yard touchdown catchfrom P.Mahomesfrom P.MahomesLead never changed again+77–0
1st9:00H.Butker·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+310–0
Chiefs ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.68 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.41Chiefs: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.20Jaguars: +0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.68Chiefs: +0.68 expected points added per play
+0.30Jaguars: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Chiefs: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.03Jaguars: −0.03 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 59 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 51 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 8, Jaguars 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.8 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−1.17× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Jaguars11.8%
inside their normal wobble · −6.3 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.97× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 33.0 points below their season mean of 33.0% and 1.6 times their own 20.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
53 dressed · 8 never used
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%68 snaps
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%68 snaps
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%68 snaps
62Austin ReiterC · Every snap100%68 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%68 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Full-time96%65 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Full-time87%59 snaps
17Mecole HardmanWR · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Heavy rotation74%50 snaps
26Damien WilliamsRB · Heavy rotation66%45 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation63%43 snaps
81Blake BellTE · Rotational49%33 snaps
25LeSean McCoyRB · Rotational29%20 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Situational18%12 snaps
42Anthony ShermanFB · Situational15%10 snaps
8Matt MooreQB · Situational13%9 snaps
79Jeff AllenG · Situational6%4 snaps
13Byron PringleWR · Situational4%3 snaps
34Darwin ThompsonRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Jordan LucasCBKhalen SaundersDTCameron ErvingGNick AllegrettiGReggie RaglandILBRyan HunterTMartinas RankinTDeon YelderTE
Jacksonville Jaguars
53 dressed · 8 never used
76Will RichardsonT · Every snap100%58 snaps
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%58 snaps
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%58 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%58 snaps
65Brandon LinderC · Every snap100%58 snaps
27Leonard FournetteRB · Full-time86%50 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Full-time83%48 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Full-time81%47 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Heavy rotation76%44 snaps
17D.J. CharkWR · Heavy rotation71%41 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation66%38 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:36) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 13:36 · Chiefs · 3rd & 3 at KC 32 · gained 68 · +6.56 EP · +19.0% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 85 yards from the KC 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
52%
Yards
919
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.3378%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.5171%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0253%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3543%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.8633%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Chiefs0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chiefs6Jaguars0
Chiefs7Jaguars0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 32
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
Chiefs10Jaguars0
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Jaguars 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Chiefs10Jaguars6
Chiefs10Jaguars7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 35
Chiefs16Jaguars7
Chiefs17Jaguars7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Jaguars 49
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to midfield
2nd quarter40 plays
Chiefs17Jaguars10
Field goal6 plays, from the Chiefs 47 to the Chiefs 19
Chiefs20Jaguars10
Field goal9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Jaguars 7
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Chiefs20Jaguars13
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 5
Chiefs23Jaguars13
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Jaguars 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 31
3rd quarter35 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 26
Chiefs29Jaguars13
Chiefs30Jaguars13
Touchdown16 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Jaguars 1
Punt6 plays
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Chiefs36Jaguars13
Chiefs37Jaguars13
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 40 to the Jaguars 3
Chiefs37Jaguars19
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 21 to the Chiefs 15
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Jaguars 44
Intercepted1 play
Chiefs40Jaguars19
Field goal6 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Jaguars 7
Chiefs40Jaguars25
Chiefs40Jaguars26
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Chiefs 21
The period ended10 plays, from the Jaguars 47 to the Jaguars 16
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Chiefscategory by categoryJaguars
Chiefs6
Jaguars0
