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2019 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles30
BY 3final margin
PanthersCarolina27
Los Angeles Rams 30 at Carolina Panthers 27. Final.
Rams -1.5 ✓O 49.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 1
Los Angeles Rams 30, Panthers 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 13:45, 4th and 12 — 11.7 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 13:45 · 4th and 12
Unnamed on the sheet
Panthers
(13:45) 6-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 56-J.Carter, Center-44-J.McQuaide, RECOVERED by CAR-39-R.Bonnafon at LA 9. 39-R.Bonnafon to LA 5 for 4 yards (6-J.Hekker).
Rams closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Los Angeles Rams 30–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 13:45, Panthers +11.7% win probability on one snap.
11.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.MooreRamsQ1 11:47(11:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 12-D.Moore to LA 26 for 16 yards (58-C.Littleton). FUMBLES (58-C.Littleton), RECOVERED by LA-58-C.Littleton at LA 30. 58-C.Littleton to LA 33 for 3 yards (40-A.Armah).
10.4pts
J.BradberryPanthersQ4 12:09(12:09) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at CAR 29. 24-J.Bradberry to CAR 29 for no gain (17-R.Woods).
10.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Rams won this one — 1 giveaway, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Panthers at 5 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Rams at 3 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Rams181 of 192 plays carry both curves
(13:45) 6-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 56-J.Carter, Center-44-J.McQuaide, RECOVERED by CAR-39-R.Bonnafon at LA 9. 39-R.Bonnafon to LA 5 for 4 yards (6-J.Hekker).
Swing +11.7 for PanthersExpected points +3.85 for PanthersThe model had Panthers 5 points higher than the market did.play 148
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 13:45LA +12% win prob(13:45) 6-J.Hekker punt is BLOCKED by 56-J.Carter, Center-44-J.McQuaide, RECOVERED by CAR-39-R.Bonnafon at LA 9. 39-R.Bonnafon to LA 5 for 4 yards (6-J.Hekker).
1st · 11:47LA +10% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 12-D.Moore to LA 26 for 16 yards (58-C.Littleton). FUMBLES (58-C.Littleton), RECOVERED by LA-58-C.Littleton at LA 30. 58-C.Littleton to LA 33 for 3 yards (40-A.Armah).
4th · 12:09LA +10% win prob(12:09) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at CAR 29. 24-J.Bradberry to CAR 29 for no gain (17-R.Woods).
2nd · 13:48CAR +8% win prob(13:48) 4-G.Zuerlein 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
1st · 0:16CAR +8% win prob(:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods to CAR 33 for 22 yards (33-T.Boston). Penalty on CAR-99-K.Short, Defensive Offside, declined. Penalty on CAR-99-K.Short, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
2nd · 13:15LA +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
G.Zuerlein's 49-yard field goal with 13:48 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd13:48G.Zuerlein·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaideLead never changed again+33–0
Rams ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Rams: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.13Panthers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.05Rams: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.22Panthers: −0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Rams: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.04Panthers: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 70 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Panthers’s 63 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Rams 4, Panthers 3.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.27× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Panthers14.6%
inside their normal wobble · −3.1 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.51× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -6.0 pts, 7.4 points below their season mean of 1.4 pts and 2.0 times their own 3.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Bruce IrvinDEVernon ButlerDTJordan KunaszykLBBrandon GreeneOGKyle AllenQBWill GrierQBGreg LittleTBrandon ZylstraWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass−15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(12:09) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Bradberry at CAR 29. 24-J.Bradberry to CAR 29 for no gain (17-R.Woods).
Q4 12:09 · Rams · 1st & 10 at CAR 49 · gained nothing · -4.30 EP · −14.7% win probability
179 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 26 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 26 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 75 yards from the LA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
45%
Yards
692
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55+0.0660%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.2073%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR12-0.2950%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0444%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1567%
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Rams 42
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 33 to the Panthers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Panthers 43
Punt4 plays
No good11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Rams 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 43 to the Rams 45
2nd quarter51 plays
Rams3Panthers0
Field goal4 plays, from the Panthers 33 to the Panthers 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost3 plays
Rams9Panthers0
Rams10Panthers0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 5
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 45
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 3 to the Rams 21
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 33
Rams13Panthers0
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 29 to the Panthers 38
Rams13Panthers3
Field goal13 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Rams 28
3rd quarter52 plays
Rams16Panthers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Panthers 9
Rams16Panthers9
Rams16Panthers10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Panthers 40 to the Rams 8
Rams22Panthers10
Rams23Panthers10
Touchdown18 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Panthers 1
Rams23Panthers13
Field goal10 plays, from the Panthers 30 to the Rams 34
The period ended4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 30
4th quarter48 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 33
Rams23Panthers19
Rams23Panthers20
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 5 to the Rams 2
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Panthers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Panthers 33
Rams29Panthers20
Rams30Panthers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 43 to the Panthers 5
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 36
No good4 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 23
Rams30Panthers26
Rams30Panthers27
Touchdown10 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Rams 1
The period ended7 plays, from midfield to the Panthers 38
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -1.5
Closing total
49.5
Rams moneyline
-122
Panthers moneyline
+111
Rams closed -1.5 and covered, winning by 3.
Total closed 49.5; the game landed 57 — over by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 87°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Rams 7 days · Panthers 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Ron Rivera
(13:15) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton to CAR 8 for -7 yards (50-S.Ebukam). FUMBLES (50-S.Ebukam), RECOVERED by LA-50-S.Ebukam at CAR 10. 50-S.Ebukam to CAR 10 for no gain (12-D.Moore).
1st · 13:14LA +7% win prob(13:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 46 for -6 yards (52-C.Matthews).
1st · 12:30CAR +6% win prob(12:30) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 12-D.Moore to LA 42 for 12 yards (23-N.Robey).
