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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 6:55 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 35, Giants 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 3:25, 2nd and 10, on B.Jarwin — 10.3 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:25 · 2nd and 10
B.Jarwin
Cowboys
(3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 89-B.Jarwin for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.3
Dome
Cowboys closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Dallas Cowboys 35–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 3:25, Cowboys +10.3% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.BarkleyGiantsQ1 11:25(11:25) 26-S.Barkley up the middle pushed ob at DAL 23 for 59 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
10.1pts
M.GallupCowboysQ2 13:40(13:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup ran ob at NYG 41 for 36 yards [59-L.Carter].
7.5pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Giants owned this one and still lost it — +0.55 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.94 expected points per dropback, against Giants at +0.00 expected points per dropback.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Giants at 3 of 11 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Giants165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 89-B.Jarwin for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +10.3 for CowboysExpected points +3.03 for CowboysThe model had Giants 20 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:25DAL +10% win prob(3:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 89-B.Jarwin for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:25DAL +10% win prob(11:25) 26-S.Barkley up the middle pushed ob at DAL 23 for 59 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
2nd · 13:40DAL +8% win prob(13:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup ran ob at NYG 41 for 36 yards [59-L.Carter].
1st · 7:29DAL +7% win prob(7:29) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb to DAL 43 for 12 yards (59-L.Carter).
1st · 0:30NYG +7% win prob(:30) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right [55-L.Vander Esch]. PENALTY on NYG-10-E.Manning, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 35.
1st · 6:08DAL +6% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup to NYG 38 for 13 yards (27-D.Baker).
2nd · 10:54
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Witten's 4-yard touchdown catch with 10:23 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Cowboys ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.94 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.13Giants: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.41Cowboys: +0.41 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.00Giants: +0.00 expected points added per play
+0.94Cowboys: +0.94 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.55Giants: +0.55 expected points added per play
−0.20Cowboys: −0.20 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 66 snaps at a 77% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 60 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Giants 4, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.41 expected points added per play vs 0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected, +11.2 pts, sat 10.1 points above their season number of +1.1 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.2 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 14 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.28× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Cowboys11.8%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.2 pts, 10.1 points above their season mean of 1.1 pts and 2.2 times their own 4.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Adam RedmondCDonovan WilsonDBTaco CharltonDETrysten HillDTDarian ThompsonFSLuke GiffordLBAlfred MorrisRBBrandon KnightT
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Barkley up+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(11:25) 26-S.Barkley up the middle pushed ob at DAL 23 for 59 yards (24-C.Awuzie).
Q1 11:25 · Giants · 2nd & 1 at NYG 18 · gained 59 · +3.96 EP · +12.8% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 93 yards from the DAL 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
44%
Yards
964
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.1980%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.5053%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.3540%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.2560%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1720%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 46
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Giants6Cowboys0
Giants7Cowboys0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Cowboys 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Giants7Cowboys6
Giants7Cowboys7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 28
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 35
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter48 plays
Giants7Cowboys13
Giants7Cowboys14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Giants 4
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 42
Giants7Cowboys20
Giants7Cowboys21
Touchdown18 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Giants 21
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 44
3rd quarter42 plays
Giants10Cowboys21
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 15 to the Cowboys 10
Giants10Cowboys27
Giants10Cowboys28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Giants 25
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 7
Giants10Cowboys34
Giants10Cowboys35
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 11 to the Giants 10
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 33
4th quarter44 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 34
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 34 to the Giants 44
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 25
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Cowboys 40
Giants16Cowboys35
Giants17Cowboys35
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cowboys 2
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 16 to the Cowboys 19
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Cowboys 44
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
