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Pittsburgh Steelers 3 at New England Patriots 33. Final.
Patriots -5.5 ✓U 49 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 1
New England Patriots 33, Steelers 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q4 0:06, 2nd and 10, on V.McDonald — 51.5 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:06 · 2nd and 10
V.McDonald
Steelers
(:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald to NE 5 for 21 yards (24-S.Gilmore; 30-J.McCourty).
Patriots closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 30.
New England Patriots 33–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, Steelers +51.5% win probability on one snap.
51.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPatriotsQ1 12:01(12:01) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to PIT 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
6.6pts
J.WhitePatriotsQ1 5:35(5:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short left to 28-J.White to PIT 20 for 32 yards (20-C.Sutton).
6.1pts
What separated them
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.24 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.50 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.17 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Patriots won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Steelers at 4 chunk plays.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Patriots won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Steelers at 3 of 12 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Steelers167 of 175 plays carry both curves
(:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald to NE 5 for 21 yards (24-S.Gilmore; 30-J.McCourty).
Swing −51.5 for PatriotsExpected points — for PatriotsModel and market agree here.play 174
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:06NE +51% win prob(:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald to NE 5 for 21 yards (24-S.Gilmore; 30-J.McCourty).
1st · 12:01NE +7% win prob(12:01) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to PIT 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
1st · 5:35NE +6% win prob(5:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Edelman pass short left to 28-J.White to PIT 20 for 32 yards (20-C.Sutton).
1st · 12:06PIT +4% win prob(12:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Edelman.
1st · 12:43PIT +4% win prob(12:43) 26-S.Michel right end to NE 35 for -3 yards (91-S.Tuitt, 34-Te.Edmunds).
1st · 7:20PIT +4% win prob(7:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short middle to 11-J.Edelman. PENALTY on NE-85-R.Izzo, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at NE 35 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Gordon's 20-yard touchdown catch with 4:55 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:55J.Gordon·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom T.Bradyfrom T.BradyLead never changed again+70–7
2nd11:54S.Gostkowski·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+30–10
3rd0:16S.Gostkowski·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–30
4th6:41S.Gostkowski·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–33
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryPatriots
Steelers0–8Patriots
308Total yards465
5.0Yards per play6.9
34%Success rate43%
25%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays9
12First downs23
1Sacks taken1
1Turnovers0
The read
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.23Steelers: −0.23 expected points added per play
+0.24Patriots: +0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.17Steelers: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.50Patriots: +0.50 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.45Steelers: −0.45 expected points added per play
−0.11Patriots: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 61 snaps at a 80% dropback rate against Patriots’s 67 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 1, Patriots 6.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.24 expected points added per play vs -0.23.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 78.3%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 1 — 0.5 points clear of the next team along.
46 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.0 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.00× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Patriots6.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−1.37× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.3%, 24.9 points above their season mean of 53.3% and 1.8 times their own 14.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Russell BodineCJoejuan WilliamsDBObi MelifonwuDBByron CowartDEKyle Van NoyOLBJarrett StidhamQBDamien HarrisRBKorey CunninghamTMatt LaCosseTEDemaryius ThomasWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass+55% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:06) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 89-V.McDonald to NE 5 for 21 yards (24-S.Gilmore; 30-J.McCourty).
Q4 0:06 · Steelers · 2nd & 10 at NE 26 · gained 21 · expected points — · +54.6% win probability
165 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 1 drawn hollow because the model scored no expected points on them · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 82 yards from the NE 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
39%
Yards
773
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1772%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR25+0.1144%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR23-0.1365%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17+0.8759%
Steelers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR14-0.63100%
Steelers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 38
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 12 to the Steelers 39
Steelers0Patriots6
Steelers0Patriots7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Patriots 18 to the Steelers 20
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 38 to the Steelers 31
2nd quarter50 plays
Steelers0Patriots10
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Steelers 7
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Steelers 30
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Patriots 38
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 44
Steelers0Patriots16
Steelers0Patriots17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Steelers 25
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Patriots 47
Steelers0Patriots20
Field goal8 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Steelers 23
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Steelers3Patriots20
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Patriots 1
Steelers3Patriots26
Steelers3Patriots27
Touchdown6 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 42
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Patriots 42
Steelers3Patriots30
Field goal9 plays, from the Patriots 10 to the Steelers 10
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Steelers 34 to the Patriots 45
Steelers3Patriots33
Field goal15 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Steelers 15
Intercepted8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Patriots 41
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
Drive ended12 plays, from the Steelers 45 to the Patriots 26
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
