For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2019 Week 1 · Sun, Sep 8, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco31
BY 14final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay17
San Francisco 49ers 31 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17. Final.
Buccaneers -1 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 1
San Francisco 49ers 31, Buccaneers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:55, 1st and 10, on M.Nzeocha — 21.4 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:55 · 1st and 10
M.Nzeocha
49ers
(2:55) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 53-M.Nzeocha at TB 30. 53-M.Nzeocha to TB 29 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard).
U 51 ✓
90°F
Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
San Francisco 49ers 31–17. Biggest swing: Q2 2:55, 49ers +21.4% win probability on one snap.
21.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
V.HargreavesBuccaneersQ2 8:47(8:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 26-T.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 28-V.Hargreaves at SF 15. 28-V.Hargreaves for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.3pts
J.Winston49ersQ4 13:07(13:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Godwin (33-T.Moore).
16.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
49ers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Buccaneers at 4 giveaways.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — -0.07 expected points per dropback, against Buccaneers at -0.57 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — -0.16 expected points per snap, against Buccaneers at -0.38 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — -0.01 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.24 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on 49ers165 of 173 plays carry both curves
(2:55) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 53-M.Nzeocha at TB 30. 53-M.Nzeocha to TB 29 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard).
Swing −21.4 for BuccaneersExpected points −4.44 for BuccaneersModel and market agree here.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:55SF +21% win prob(2:55) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 80-O.Howard INTERCEPTED by 53-M.Nzeocha at TB 30. 53-M.Nzeocha to TB 29 for 1 yard (80-O.Howard).
2nd · 8:47SF +19% win prob(8:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 26-T.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 28-V.Hargreaves at SF 15. 28-V.Hargreaves for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 13:07SF +17% win prob(13:07) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short middle to 12-C.Godwin (33-T.Moore).
4th · 2:10SF +17% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left intended for 44-D.Ogunbowale INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Witherspoon [55-D.Ford] at TB 25. 23-A.Witherspoon for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:38TB +15% win prob(12:38) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left to 13-R.James for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:53SF +14% win prob(11:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right intended for 25-P.Barber INTERCEPTED by 25-R.Sherman at TB 31. 25-R.Sherman for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
R.James's 39-yard touchdown catch with 12:38 left in the 3rd put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:12R.Gould·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap C.Holba+33–0
Buccaneers ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.1649ers: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.38Buccaneers: −0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.0749ers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.57Buccaneers: −0.57 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.2449ers: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.01Buccaneers: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 59 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 64 at 66%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 4, Buccaneers 4.
NoteBuccaneers outgained 49ers 296-260 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +1.2 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.22× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Buccaneers3.4%
leaned — stayed blocked · −11.7 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.4%, 11.7 points below their season mean of 15.1% and 1.6 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
53 dressed · 9 never used
69Mike McGlincheyOT · Every snap100%67 snaps
58Weston RichburgC · Every snap100%67 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap99%66 snaps
74Joe StaleyT · Full-time97%65 snaps
—Michael PersonG · Full-time97%65 snaps
85George KittleTE · Full-time91%61 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Full-time88%59 snaps
11Marquise GoodwinWR · Heavy rotation73%49 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykRB · Rotational46%31 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Rotational43%29 snaps
13Richie JamesWR · Rotational39%26 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Rotational30%20 snaps
26Tevin ColemanRB · Rotational27%18 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational25%17 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational18%12 snaps
83Levine ToiloloTE · Situational16%11 snaps
63Ben GarlandG · Situational4%3 snaps
18Dante PettisWR · Situational3%2 snaps
67Justin SkuleT · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Mike PersonCJason VerrettCBJimmie WardFSDaniel BrunskillOTNick MullensQBC.J. BeathardQBKaden SmithTEJalen HurdWRTrent TaylorWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass−22% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(8:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 26-T.Coleman INTERCEPTED by 28-V.Hargreaves at SF 15. 28-V.Hargreaves for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 8:47 · 49ers · 2nd & 18 at SF 12 · gained nothing · -6.22 EP · −21.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 79 yards from the TB 21 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.19
Success rate
39%
Yards
553
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1868%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.3175%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21+0.0233%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.2150%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.4838%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.3017%
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 24 to the Buccaneers 30
49ers3Buccaneers0
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Buccaneers 8
Punt13 plays, from the Buccaneers 18 to the 49ers 43
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the 49ers 30
The period ended9 plays, from the Buccaneers 17 to the 49ers 30
2nd quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Fumble lost9 plays, from the 49ers 34 to the 49ers 8
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
49ers3Buccaneers6
Touchdown6 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the 49ers 21
49ers3Buccaneers7
49ers6Buccaneers7
Field goal15 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Buccaneers 15
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.1 seconds
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Buccaneers 19
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
49ers12Buccaneers7
49ers13Buccaneers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Buccaneers 39
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
49ers19Buccaneers7
Touchdown3 plays
49ers20Buccaneers7
49ers20Buccaneers13
49ers20Buccaneers14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the 49ers 10
No good9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Buccaneers 39
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the 49ers 24
4th quarter48 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, one linebacker and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the 49ers 9 to the 49ers 2
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 2 to the 49ers 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
49ers20Buccaneers17
Field goal7 plays, from the 49ers 41 to the 49ers 6
49ers23Buccaneers17
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Buccaneers 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
49ers29Buccaneers17
Touchdown2 plays
49ers31Buccaneers17
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the 49ers 37
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -1
Closing total
51
49ers moneyline
-102
Buccaneers moneyline
-108
Buccaneers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 48 — under by 3.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Hot, 90°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the west; mainly clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
49ers 7 days · Buccaneers 7 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Bruce Arians
2nd · 12:01SF +13% win prob(12:01) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 80-O.Howard to SF 9 for 10 yards (54-F.Warner). FUMBLES (54-F.Warner), RECOVERED by SF-98-R.Blair at SF 8. 98-R.Blair to SF 8 for no gain (80-O.Howard).
3rd · 13:23TB +11% win prob(13:23) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete deep middle to 84-K.Bourne. PENALTY on TB-33-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 23 yards, enforced at SF 37 - No Play.
