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polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:29 AM ET · 16 to play
Tennessee Titans 43 at Cleveland Browns 13. Final.
Browns -5.5 upsetO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 1
Tennessee Titans 43, Browns 13 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 2:10, 1st and 10, on D.Henry — 19.6 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:10 · 1st and 10
D.Henry
Titans
(2:10) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Browns closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 43–13 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:10, Titans +19.6% win probability on one snap.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.LandryBrownsQ3 2:58(2:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry to TEN 3 for 34 yards (26-L.Ryan).
13.2pts
K.ByardTitansQ4 14:21(14:21) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 13-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 37. 31-K.Byard to CLE 35 for 28 yards (64-J.Tretter).
11.3pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 3 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.35 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Browns at -0.41 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Titans at 3 touchdowns on 6 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Titans169 of 176 plays carry both curves
(2:10) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Swing −19.6 for BrownsExpected points −6.09 for BrownsThe model had Titans 5 points higher than the market did.play 125
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:10CLE +20% win prob(2:10) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 2:58CLE +13% win prob(2:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 80-J.Landry to TEN 3 for 34 yards (26-L.Ryan).
4th · 14:21TEN +11% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right intended for 13-O.Beckham INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Byard at TEN 37. 31-K.Byard to CLE 35 for 28 yards (64-J.Tretter).
2nd · 2:00CLE +10% win prob(2:00) 6-B.Kern punts 70 yards to CLE 3, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-48-B.Brinkley.
3rd · 4:12CLE +9% win prob(4:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 80-J.Landry pushed ob at TEN 44 for 23 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
1st · 11:04CLE +9% win prob(11:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep middle to 81-R.Higgins to TEN 4 for 35 yards (54-R.Evans).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Henry's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 9:42 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:18D.Hilliard·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+60–6
1st6:36C.Santos·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+33–6
2nd9:42D.Henry·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+710–6
2nd1:47C.Wake·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+212–6
3rd11:58C.Santos·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+315–6
Titans ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Titans: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.35Browns: −0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Titans: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.41Browns: −0.41 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.00Titans: −0.00 expected points added per play
−0.22Browns: −0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 54 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Browns’s 63 at 68%. Red-zone trips: Titans 6, Browns 2.
NoteBrowns outgained Titans 346-341 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 12 pts
right on their number · +1.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Browns26.7%
leaned — got home · +12.6 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.86× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 26.7%, 12.6 points above their season mean of 14.1% and 1.9 times their own 6.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tennessee Titans
54 dressed · 9 never used
76Rodger SaffoldG · Every snap100%59 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%59 snaps
75Jamil DouglasOG · Every snap100%59 snaps
71Dennis KellyOT · Every snap100%59 snaps
60Ben JonesC · Every snap100%59 snaps
8Marcus MariotaQB · Full-time97%57 snaps
84Corey DavisWR · Heavy rotation73%43 snaps
81Jonnu SmithTE · Heavy rotation63%37 snaps
22Derrick HenryRB · Heavy rotation61%36 snaps
85MyCole PruittTE · Heavy rotation58%34 snaps
19Tajae SharpeWR · Rotational49%29 snaps
82Delanie WalkerTE · Rotational46%27 snaps
11A.J. BrownWR · Rotational42%25 snaps
33Dion LewisRB · Rotational41%24 snaps
10Adam HumphriesWR · Rotational34%20 snaps
86Anthony FirkserTE · Situational15%9 snaps
15Darius JenningsWR · Situational8%5 snaps
32David FluellenRB · Situational7%4 snaps
17Ryan TannehillQB · Situational3%2 snaps
53Daren BatesILB · Situational2%1 snap
72David QuessenberryT · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Chris MiltonCBTye SmithCBMatt DickersonDEKevin PamphileGNate DavisGDavid LongLBReggie GilbertLBDalyn DawkinsRBKalif RaymondWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Mariota pass+21% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:10) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 22-D.Henry for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 2:10 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 25 · gained 75 · +6.09 EP · +21.1% win probability
167 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 87 yards from the TEN 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
41%
Yards
685
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60-0.3770%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.4140%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19-0.2258%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.6688%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Titans0Browns6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 27 to the Titans 4
Titans3Browns6
Field goal9 plays, from the Titans 8 to the Browns 19
Punt7 plays, from the Browns 11 to the Browns 24
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Titans 47
The period ended5 plays, from the Browns 7 to the Browns 31
2nd quarter57 plays
Punt2 plays
Titans9Browns6
Titans10Browns6
Touchdown16 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Browns 1
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 39
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 15 to the Browns 47
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Titans12Browns6
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 41 to the Browns 48
The period ended10 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Titans 42
3rd quarter37 plays
Titans15Browns6
Field goal6 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Browns 28
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Titans 45
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 6 to the Titans 14
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Titans15Browns12
Titans15Browns13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Browns 39 to the Titans 3
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Titans21Browns13
Titans22Browns13
Touchdown3 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 39
4th quarter44 plays
Intercepted3 plays
Titans28Browns13
Titans29Browns13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Browns 11
Intercepted4 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 31
Titans35Browns13
Titans36Browns13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 7
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Titans 45
Titans42Browns13
Touchdown1 play
Titans43Browns13
Punt1 play
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 33
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -5.5
Closing total
44
Titans moneyline
+206
Browns moneyline
-230
Browns closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 56 — over by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 68°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the north-east; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Titans 7 days · Browns 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Freddie Kitchens
2nd · 1:47TEN +8% win prob(1:47) 6-B.Mayfield sacked in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (91-C.Wake). CLE-70-K.Lamm was injured during the play. He is Out.
1st · 4:23TEN +8% win prob(4:23) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CLE 6 for -15 yards (91-C.Wake).
Titanscategory by categoryBrowns
Titans0
Browns6
