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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 17 at Baltimore Ravens 23. Final.
Ravens -13 no coverU 46 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Baltimore Ravens 23, Cardinals 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 3:05, 3rd and 11, on M.Brown — 4.0 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:05 · 3rd and 11
M.Brown
Ravens
(3:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown to ARI 15 for 41 yards (20-T.Brock).
Ravens closed -13, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Baltimore Ravens 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 3:05, Ravens +4.0% win probability on one snap.
4.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.JohnsonCardinalsQ2 10:57(10:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 19-K.Johnson to BAL 10 for 31 yards (24-B.Carr) [41-A.Levine].
3.8pts
C.KirkCardinalsQ4 13:47(13:47) (No Huddle) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 13-C.Kirk to BAL 01 for 18 yards (99-M.Judon).
3.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 14 chunk plays, against Cardinals at 7 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Ravens won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Cardinals at 2 of 11 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — -0.06 expected points per carry, against Cardinals at -0.50 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 41% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Cardinals169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(3:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown to ARI 15 for 41 yards (20-T.Brock).
Swing +4.0 for RavensExpected points +3.63 for RavensThe model had Cardinals 5 points higher than the market did.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:05BAL +4% win prob(3:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown to ARI 15 for 41 yards (20-T.Brock).
2nd · 10:57BAL +4% win prob(10:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 19-K.Johnson to BAL 10 for 31 yards (24-B.Carr) [41-A.Levine].
4th · 13:47BAL +4% win prob(13:47) (No Huddle) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 13-C.Kirk to BAL 01 for 18 yards (99-M.Judon).
4th · 14:50BAL +3% win prob(14:50) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to BAL 25 for 54 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
1st · 10:01BAL +3% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left end pushed ob at ARI 42 for 19 yards (36-D.Swearinger).
4th · 10:30BAL +3% win prob(10:30) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left end ran ob at ARI 38 for 10 yards (25-Ch.Jones).
4th · 8:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Andrews's 27-yard touchdown catch with 8:12 left in the 1st put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:12M.Andrews·27-yd TD catch27-yard touchdown catchfrom L.Jacksonfrom L.JacksonLead never changed again+70–7
1st2:21Z.Gonzalez·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+33–7
2nd14:11J.Tucker·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+33–10
2nd8:34Z.Gonzalez·21-yd field goal21-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+36–10
4th9:02J.Tucker·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+317–23
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryRavens
Cardinals1–6Ravens
351Total yards442
6.5Yards per play6.3
41%Success rate46%
18%Third-down rate50%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
7Explosive plays14
15First downs25
3Sacks taken2
0Turnovers0
The read
Ravens ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.50 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Cardinals: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.17Ravens: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Cardinals: +0.25 expected points added per play
+0.30Ravens: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.50Cardinals: −0.50 expected points added per play
−0.06Ravens: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 54 snaps at a 81% dropback rate against Ravens’s 70 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 4, Ravens 5.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
ARI's pass rate over expected, +16.7 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.2-swing turn from week 1.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.7 points.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's early-down pass rate, 78.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 1.9 points clear of the next team along.
41 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
BAL's early-down pass rate turned over: 32.8% in week 1 against 60.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
ARI's sack or hit rate turned over: 22.9% in week 1 against 4.5% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 23 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.38× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Ravens18.2%
right on their number · +0.6 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.08× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 5.0 pts, 12.6 points above their season mean of -7.7 pts and 1.9 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Arizona Cardinals
53 dressed · 8 never used
64J.R. SweezyG · Every snap100%57 snaps
74D.J. HumphriesOT · Every snap100%57 snaps
71Justin MurrayOT · Every snap100%57 snaps
67Justin PughG · Every snap100%57 snaps
53A.Q. ShipleyC · Every snap100%57 snaps
1Kyler MurrayQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
11Larry FitzgeraldWR · Full-time95%54 snaps
14Damiere ByrdWR · Full-time93%53 snaps
13Christian KirkWR · Full-time93%53 snaps
31David JohnsonRB · Heavy rotation60%34 snaps
29Chase EdmondsRB · Rotational40%23 snaps
19KeeSean JohnsonWR · Rotational32%18 snaps
15Michael CrabtreeWR · Rotational32%18 snaps
87Maxx WilliamsTE · Rotational25%14 snaps
85Charles ClayTE · Rotational25%14 snaps
16Trent SherfieldWR · Situational7%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Jonathan BullardDEMichael DogbeDTLamont GaillardGJeremy VujnovichGBrett HundleyQBJoshua MilesTBrett TothTAndy IsabellaWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass+10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:57) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right to 19-K.Johnson to BAL 10 for 31 yards (24-B.Carr) [41-A.Levine].
Q2 10:57 · Cardinals · 3rd & 9 at BAL 41 · gained 31 · +3.22 EP · +9.6% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 94 yards from the BAL 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
39%
Yards
791
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR31+0.0781%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.0266%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.4969%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3067%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.160%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.4656%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.53100%
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 44
Cardinals0Ravens6
Cardinals0Ravens7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Cardinals 27
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Cardinals 25
Turnover on downs4 plays, from midfield to the Cardinals 42
Cardinals3Ravens7
Field goal7 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Ravens 4
The period ended8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Cardinals 22
2nd quarter51 plays
Cardinals3Ravens10
Field goal3 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Cardinals 15
Cardinals6Ravens10
Field goal16 plays, from the Cardinals 14 to the Ravens 3
Cardinals6Ravens16
Cardinals6Ravens17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Cardinals 1
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 6 to the Cardinals 23
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Cardinals 48
The period ended5 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 41
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 31
Cardinals9Ravens17
Field goal12 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Ravens 2
The period ended21 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Cardinals 5
4th quarter49 plays
Cardinals9Ravens20
Field goal1 play
Cardinals15Ravens20
Cardinals17Ravens20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Ravens 1
Cardinals17Ravens23
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Cardinals 33
Punt2 plays, from the Cardinals 18 to the Cardinals 26
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Cardinals 44
Punt6 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Cardinals 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
