For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Buffalo Bills 28, Giants 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 8:08, 1st and 20, on C.Beasley — 7.7 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:08 · 1st and 20
C.Beasley
Bills
(8:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-C.Beasley to NYG 14 for 51 yards (27-D.Baker, 21-J.Peppers). BUF-77-T.Nsekhe was injured during the play.
Bills closed -1 and covered, winning by 14.
Buffalo Bills 28–14. Biggest swing: Q2 8:08, Bills +7.7% win probability on one snap.
7.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetGiantsQ2 12:07(12:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to BUF 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.
7.6pts
T.MurphyBillsQ2 0:53(:53) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left intended for 18-B.Fowler INTERCEPTED by 93-T.Murphy (91-E.Oliver) at BUF 28. 93-T.Murphy to BUF 28 for no gain (71-W.Hernandez).
7.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bills won this one — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Giants at 1 touchdown on 2 trips.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bills won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 2 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.19 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.07 expected points per snap.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Bills176 of 186 plays carry both curves
(8:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-C.Beasley to NYG 14 for 51 yards (27-D.Baker, 21-J.Peppers). BUF-77-T.Nsekhe was injured during the play.
Swing −7.7 for GiantsExpected points −3.47 for GiantsThe model had Giants 4 points higher than the market did.play 61
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:08NYG +8% win prob(8:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 10-C.Beasley to NYG 14 for 51 yards (27-D.Baker, 21-J.Peppers). BUF-77-T.Nsekhe was injured during the play.
2nd · 0:53BUF +8% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left intended for 18-B.Fowler INTERCEPTED by 93-T.Murphy (91-E.Oliver) at BUF 28. 93-T.Murphy to BUF 28 for no gain (71-W.Hernandez).
2nd · 12:07NYG +8% win prob(12:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 58 yards to BUF 2, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-17-C.Core.
1st · 1:39NYG +7% win prob(1:39) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 15-J.Brown to NYG 38 for 14 yards (31-M.Thomas).
1st · 6:26NYG +7% win prob(6:26) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 19-I.McKenzie to NYG 22 for 26 yards (27-D.Baker).
2nd · 13:30NYG +6% win prob(13:30) 26-D.Singletary left end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Singletary's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 13:30 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Bills ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Bills: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.07Giants: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Bills: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.19Giants: −0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.12Bills: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.22Giants: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bills ran 65 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Giants’s 66 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Bills 4, Giants 2.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.2 pts in week 1 against −1.9 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.9 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.4 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Giants11.1%
inside their normal wobble · −3.3 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.5%, 8.4 points below their season mean of 15.0% and 1.3 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Bills attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bills←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Manning pass−11% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:53) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left intended for 18-B.Fowler INTERCEPTED by 93-T.Murphy (91-E.Oliver) at BUF 28. 93-T.Murphy to BUF 28 for no gain (71-W.Hernandez).
Q2 0:53 · Giants · 1st & 10 at BUF 21 · gained nothing · -4.00 EP · −10.5% win probability
174 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was BUF moving 98 yards from the BUF 2 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, BUF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
758
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39-0.1774%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.2657%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.1565%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0347%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1720%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Bills0Giants6
Bills0Giants7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Bills 27
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 29
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 30 to the Giants 35
Bills6Giants7
Bills7Giants7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Giants 6
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 22 to the Giants 23
The period ended7 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Giants 29
2nd quarter50 plays
Bills13Giants7
Bills14Giants7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Giants 14
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 40
Bills20Giants7
Bills21Giants7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 2 to the Giants 14
No good16 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Bills 29
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Bills 21
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 28
Punt11 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Bills 41
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 31
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 27
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 27
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Bills 33
4th quarter56 plays
Bills21Giants13
Bills21Giants14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 4
Bills27Giants14
Bills28Giants14
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Giants 1
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 42
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 42 to the Giants 40
Intercepted5 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 49
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 2 to the Bills 22
The period ended4 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Bills 40
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
