For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
DYNATYZE
Loading
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 5:29 AM ET · 16 final
2019 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
BearsChicago16
BY 2final margin
BroncosDenver14
Chicago Bears 16 at Denver Broncos 14. Final.
Bears -3 no coverU 41 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Chicago Bears 16, Broncos 14 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:01, 1st and 10, on E.Pineiro — 38.6 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Bears closed -3, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Chicago Bears 16–14 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:01, Bears +38.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:01 · 1st and 10
E.Pineiro
Bears
(:01) 15-E.Pineiro 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
38.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
E.SandersBroncosQ4 0:31TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-J.Flacco pass to 10-E.Sanders is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
24.1pts
A.RobinsonBearsQ4 0:09(:09) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 12-A.Robinson to DEN 35 for 25 yards (25-C.Harris).
36.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Bears won this one — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Broncos at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.05 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Bears won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 1 giveaway.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — +0.15 expected points per dropback, against Bears at -0.00 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Bears170 of 183 plays carry both curves
(:01) 15-E.Pineiro 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Swing −38.6 for BroncosExpected points −1.24 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 4 points higher than the market did.play 182
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:01DEN +39% win prob(:01) 15-E.Pineiro 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
4th · 0:09DEN +37% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep middle to 12-A.Robinson to DEN 35 for 25 yards (25-C.Harris).
4th · 0:31DEN +24% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 5-J.Flacco pass to 10-E.Sanders is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
4th · 4:51CHI +19% win prob(4:51) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right intended for 10-E.Sanders INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Fuller at CHI 3. 23-K.Fuller to CHI 11 for 8 yards (10-E.Sanders).
3rd · 11:59DEN +10% win prob(11:59) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 61 yards to DEN 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 25 for no gain (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe). PENALTY on DEN-36-T.Marshall, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 25.
4th · 1:02DEN +10% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 14-C.Sutton to CHI 7 for 5 yards (23-K.Fuller).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
E.Pineiro's 53-yard field goal with 0:01 left in the 4th put Chicago Bears ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:50B.McManus·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Wadman · snap C.Kreiter+30–3
2nd13:39E.Pineiro·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+33–3
2nd5:15E.Pineiro·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+36–3
4th0:01E.Pineiro·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.ScalesLead never changed again+316–14
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryBroncos
Bears4–3Broncos
273Total yards374
4.9Yards per play4.9
41%Success rate44%
27%Third-down rate21%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays4
14First downs26
0Sacks taken2
0Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.02Bears: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.04Broncos: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.00Bears: −0.00 expected points added per play
+0.15Broncos: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.05Bears: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.19Broncos: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 56 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Broncos’s 77 at 69%. Red-zone trips: Bears 1, Broncos 3.
NoteBroncos outgained Bears 374-273 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
−2.5σtheir own normal+2.5σ
One dot per reading, placed at how far it sits from that club's own normal in that club's own standard deviations. 8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
CHI's pass rate over expected, −13.6 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 1.0 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 1.
56 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
CHI's early-down pass rate turned over: 75.0% in week 1 against 43.2% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
44 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.6 points. · −1.2σ from their own normal
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.7 pts in week 1 against +1.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
76 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points. · +0.6σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −1.3 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.23× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Broncos7.4%
inside their normal wobble · −5.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.6 pts, 13.5 points below their season mean of -0.1 pts and 1.6 times their own 8.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
E.Pineiro+43% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:01) 15-E.Pineiro 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 0:01 · Bears · 1st & 10 at DEN 35 · gained nothing · +1.24 EP · +42.8% win probability
168 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 80 yards from the CHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
40%
Yards
647
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.0376%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0252%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR26+0.1158%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.5580%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Bears0Broncos3
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bears 25
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 26
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Bears 49
The period ended13 plays, from the Bears 14 to the Broncos 30
2nd quarter48 plays
Bears3Broncos3
Field goal3 plays, from the Broncos 29 to the Broncos 22
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bears 47
Bears6Broncos3
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Broncos 34
Punt12 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bears 41
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 15 to the Bears 22
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 20
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 27
Punt10 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Bears 42
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Bears12Broncos3
Bears13Broncos3
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Broncos 1
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Bears 39
4th quarter65 plays
Bears13Broncos6
Field goal8 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Bears 14
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.4 seconds
Intercepted16 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Bears 2
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Bears 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Bears13Broncos12
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Bears13Broncos14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Bears 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.6 seconds
Bears16Broncos14
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Broncos 35
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Bearscategory by categoryBroncos
Bears0
Broncos3
