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Cleveland Browns 23, Jets 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:32, 2nd and 12, on O.Beckham — 5.0 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:32 · 2nd and 12
O.Beckham
Browns
(11:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham ran ob at NYJ 4 for 33 yards (21-N.Hairston).
Browns closed -6.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Cleveland Browns 23–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:32, Browns +5.0% win probability on one snap.
5.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.JohnsonBrownsQ1 12:49(12:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 30-D.Johnson to NYJ 35 for 27 yards (46-N.Hewitt). Penalty on NYJ-34-B.Poole, Defensive Holding, declined.
4.5pts
B.MayfieldBrownsQ1 7:58(7:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 88-D.Harris [33-J.Adams]. PENALTY on NYJ-33-J.Adams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
4.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.04 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.46 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Jets at 5 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — -0.04 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.36 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Browns won this one — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Browns165 of 172 plays carry both curves
(11:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham ran ob at NYJ 4 for 33 yards (21-N.Hairston).
Swing −5.0 for JetsExpected points −3.37 for JetsThe model had Jets 25 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:32NYJ +5% win prob(11:32) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 13-O.Beckham ran ob at NYJ 4 for 33 yards (21-N.Hairston).
1st · 7:58NYJ +5% win prob(7:58) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 88-D.Harris [33-J.Adams]. PENALTY on NYJ-33-J.Adams, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
1st · 12:49NYJ +4% win prob(12:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 30-D.Johnson to NYJ 35 for 27 yards (46-N.Hewitt). Penalty on NYJ-34-B.Poole, Defensive Holding, declined.
1st · 9:49CLE +4% win prob(9:49) 19-T.Siemian sacked at NYJ 13 for -7 yards (95-M.Garrett).
1st · 1:23NYJ +3% win prob(1:23) (Shotgun) 19-T.Siemian pass short left to 26-L.Bell to NYJ 13 for 3 yards (35-J.Whitehead) [95-M.Garrett]. PENALTY on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 13. Penalty on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 10:23NYJ +3% win prob(10:23) 24-N.Chubb left tackle for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Seibert's 23-yard field goal with 10:30 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:30A.Seibert·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+33–0
1st6:19A.Seibert·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+36–0
Browns ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Browns: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.36Jets: −0.36 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Browns: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.46Jets: −0.46 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Browns: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.23Jets: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 58 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Jets’s 59 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Jets 1.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.36.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 20.0% in week 1 against 66.7% here — they took the kick then and went for it now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.9 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.87× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Jets13.5%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.17× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 33.7 points above their season mean of 33.0% and 1.8 times their own 19.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:49) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 30-D.Johnson to NYJ 35 for 27 yards (46-N.Hewitt). Penalty on NYJ-34-B.Poole, Defensive Holding, declined.
Q1 12:49 · Browns · 3rd & 3 at CLE 38 · gained 27 · +2.80 EP · +10.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 89 yards from the CLE 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
31%
Yards
637
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0280%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.5264%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0321%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.1440%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.5833%
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6-0.04100%
Browns1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Browns3Jets0
Field goal12 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Jets 4
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 15 to the Jets 20
Browns6Jets0
Field goal7 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Jets 30
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 29
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 28 to the Browns 46
The period ended6 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 28
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt4 plays
Browns12Jets0
Browns13Jets0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 47 to the Jets 19
Browns13Jets3
Field goal16 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Browns 28
Punt10 plays, from the Browns 25 to midfield
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 12
Browns16Jets3
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 25
The period ended1 play
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Jets 47
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 13 to the Jets 17
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 34 to the Browns 40
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Browns 12
Browns22Jets3
Browns23Jets3
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 19 to the Jets 27
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 33 to the Browns 41
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Jets 29 to the Browns 44
Intercepted6 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Jets 30
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Browns 24
Punt13 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Jets 33
The period ended7 plays, from the Jets 11 to the Browns 46
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
