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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Dallas Cowboys 31 at Washington Commanders 21. Final.
Cowboys -6 ✓O 46.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Dallas Cowboys 31, Commanders 21 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 6:18, 2nd and 7, on D.Smith — 11.6 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:18 · 2nd and 7
D.Smith
Cowboys
(6:18) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 15-D.Smith for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.6
Cowboys closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.
Dallas Cowboys 31–21. Biggest swing: Q2 6:18, Cowboys +11.6% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.NicholsonCommandersQ1 5:24(5:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 18-R.Cobb INTERCEPTED by 35-M.Nicholson at WAS 39. 35-M.Nicholson to DAL 38 for 23 yards (18-R.Cobb).
10.9pts
Unnamed on the sheetCommandersQ2 9:55(9:55) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to DAL 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Wilson to DAL 15 for 10 yards (30-T.Apke). PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at DAL 5.
10.3pts
What separated them
Third down
Cowboys won this one — 7 of 11 on third down, against Commanders at 2 of 9 on third down.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Commanders at 3 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Commanders owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Cowboys at 3 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Commanders at -0.11 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Cowboys158 of 167 plays carry both curves
(6:18) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 15-D.Smith for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.6 for CommandersExpected points −4.75 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 24 points higher than the market did.play 58
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:18WAS +12% win prob(6:18) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle to 15-D.Smith for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:24DAL +11% win prob(5:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 18-R.Cobb INTERCEPTED by 35-M.Nicholson at WAS 39. 35-M.Nicholson to DAL 38 for 23 yards (18-R.Cobb).
2nd · 9:55WAS +10% win prob(9:55) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to DAL 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 11-C.Wilson to DAL 15 for 10 yards (30-T.Apke). PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Offensive Holding, 2 yards, enforced at DAL 5.
2nd · 13:35DAL +9% win prob(13:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at DAL 22 for -8 yards (91-R.Kerrigan).
2nd · 2:30WAS +8% win prob(2:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left end to WAS 21 for 42 yards (24-J.Norman).
2nd · 12:57WAS +7% win prob(12:57) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to WAS 26, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 18-T.Quinn.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Witten's 2-yard touchdown catch with 0:13 left in the 2nd put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Cowboys ahead 6–1 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Commanders, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.42 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.31Cowboys: +0.31 expected points added per play
+0.10Commanders: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.42Cowboys: +0.42 expected points added per play
+0.18Commanders: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Cowboys: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.11Commanders: −0.11 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 64 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Commanders’s 54 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 5, Commanders 3.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.31 expected points added per play vs 0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.5 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Commanders6.3%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.4 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−1.45× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.3%, 8.4 points below their season mean of 14.7% and 1.5 times their own 5.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
53 dressed · 8 never used
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%69 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%69 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%69 snaps
72Travis FrederickC · Every snap100%69 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%69 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time91%63 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Heavy rotation77%53 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Heavy rotation77%53 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Heavy rotation75%52 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Heavy rotation67%46 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational35%24 snaps
15Devin SmithWR · Rotational26%18 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Situational23%16 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational12%8 snaps
11Ced WilsonWR · Situational9%6 snaps
75Cameron FlemingT · Situational4%3 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Situational4%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Adam RedmondCDonovan WilsonDBTaco CharltonDETrysten HillDTLuke GiffordLBCooper RushQBBrandon KnightTTavon AustinWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Prescott pass−14% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(5:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep middle intended for 18-R.Cobb INTERCEPTED by 35-M.Nicholson at WAS 39. 35-M.Nicholson to DAL 38 for 23 yards (18-R.Cobb).
Q1 5:24 · Cowboys · 3rd & 1 at DAL 43 · gained nothing · -5.40 EP · −13.9% win probability
156 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 97 yards from the DAL 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
48%
Yards
729
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50+0.0872%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48+0.3150%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.4344%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 42
Punt4 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 16
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the Cowboys 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Cowboys 43
The period ended11 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Cowboys 8
2nd quarter49 plays
Cowboys0Commanders6
Cowboys0Commanders7
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 30
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 26 to the Cowboys 42
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Cowboys6Commanders7
Cowboys7Commanders7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 3 to the Cowboys 49
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cowboys13Commanders7
Cowboys14Commanders7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Commanders 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Cowboys20Commanders7
Cowboys21Commanders7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 10
Cowboys21Commanders13
Cowboys21Commanders14
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 9
The period ended12 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 3
4th quarter46 plays
Cowboys24Commanders14
Field goal3 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 7
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 46
Cowboys30Commanders14
Cowboys31Commanders14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Commanders 2
Cowboys31Commanders20
Cowboys31Commanders21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Cowboys 13 to the Commanders 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -6
Closing total
46.5
Cowboys moneyline
-268
Commanders moneyline
+233
Cowboys closed -6 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 46.5; the game landed 52 — over by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 83°F at kickoff; still at 2 mph out of the north; clear.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Cowboys 7 days · Commanders 7 days
Coaches
Jason Garrett vs Jay Gruden
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 2:06
WAS +7% win prob
(2:06) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short left to 18-T.Quinn pushed ob at DAL 16 for 10 yards (38-J.Heath). Penalty on DAL-27-J.Lewis, Defensive Holding, declined.
1st · 0:22WAS +6% win prob(:22) 8-C.Keenum pass short right to 26-A.Peterson to DAL 1 for 7 yards (54-J.Smith; 25-X.Woods).
