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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:16 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 19 at Tennessee Titans 17. Final.
Titans -3 upsetU 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Indianapolis Colts 19, Titans 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:25, 1st and 10, on J.Wilkins — 23.3 win-probability points to the Colts on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:25 · 1st and 10
J.Wilkins
Colts
(5:25) 20-J.Wilkins right guard pushed ob at TEN 4 for 55 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
23.3
91°F
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Indianapolis Colts 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:25, Colts +23.3% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.BrissettTitansQ3 7:21(7:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at TEN 45 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TEN-58-H.Landry at IND 45. 58-H.Landry to IND 45 for no gain (7-J.Brissett). Penalty on IND-13-T.Hilton, Illegal Shift, declined.
19.8pts
M.MariotaColtsQ4 0:13(:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown.
21.8pts
What separated them
Third down
Colts won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Titans at 1 of 9 on third down.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Colts at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Colts won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Titans at 2 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Colts at 3 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Colts160 of 170 plays carry both curves
(5:25) 20-J.Wilkins right guard pushed ob at TEN 4 for 55 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
Swing −23.3 for TitansExpected points −3.87 for TitansModel and market agree here.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:25TEN +23% win prob(5:25) 20-J.Wilkins right guard pushed ob at TEN 4 for 55 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
4th · 0:13IND +22% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown.
3rd · 7:21IND +20% win prob(7:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at TEN 45 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TEN-58-H.Landry at IND 45. 58-H.Landry to IND 45 for no gain (7-J.Brissett). Penalty on IND-13-T.Hilton, Illegal Shift, declined.
4th · 2:24TEN +19% win prob(2:24) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to IND 36 for 1 yard (99-J.Casey).
4th · 1:14IND +18% win prob(1:14) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to TEN 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.
3rd · 12:03TEN +10% win prob(12:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to IND 3 for 25 yards (35-P.Desir). IND-35-P.Desir was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Hilton's 4-yard touchdown catch with 4:42 left in the 4th put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
3rd4:40C.Santos·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap B.Brinkley+313–17
4th4:42T.Hilton·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom J.Brissettfrom J.Brissett · kick no good, hit right uprightLead never changed again+619–17
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryTitans
Colts6–3Titans
289Total yards243
4.6Yards per play4.5
41%Success rate43%
50%Third-down rate11%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays6
19First downs16
3Sacks taken4
2Turnovers0
The read
Colts ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Titans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Colts: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.08Titans: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.09Colts: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.10Titans: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.06Colts: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.04Titans: −0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 63 snaps at a 54% dropback rate against Titans’s 54 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Colts 3, Titans 3.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -28 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · +2.3 vs their 12.8%, and they swing ±4.5 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Titans14.7%
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was TEN's pass rate over expected, -2.0 pts against a season mean of -6.2 pts — and TEN swings 5.7 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Wilkins right+27% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:25) 20-J.Wilkins right guard pushed ob at TEN 4 for 55 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
Q4 5:25 · Colts · 1st & 10 at IND 41 · gained 55 · +3.87 EP · +27.1% win probability
158 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 78 yards from the IND 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
38%
Yards
531
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.1449%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.2962%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.4650%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0973%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.3611%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.4538%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 37
Colts6Titans0
Colts7Titans0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 22 to the Titans 3
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 34
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 18 to the Colts 22
The period ended10 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Colts 12
2nd quarter47 plays
Colts7Titans6
Colts7Titans7
Touchdown2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Colts13Titans7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Colts 27 to the Titans 12
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Colts 48
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Colts 45
The period ended9 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 36
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Colts 10 to the Colts 13
Colts13Titans13
Colts13Titans14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Colts 40 to the Colts 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 35
Colts13Titans17
Field goal5 plays, from the Colts 45 to the Colts 31
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 13 to the Titans 30
4th quarter49 plays
No good9 plays, from the Titans 48 to the Colts 20
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 35 to the Colts 40
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 25
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Colts19Titans17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 31 to the Titans 4
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 34
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Punt13 plays, from the Colts 26 to the Colts 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Colts 45
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
