2019 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2019 · Nissan Stadium
Indianapolis ColtsWinner
19
Tennessee Titans
17
Indianapolis Colts 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:25, TEN +23% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(5:25) 20-J.Wilkins right guard pushed ob at TEN 4 for 55 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 5:25TEN +23% win prob(5:25) 20-J.Wilkins right guard pushed ob at TEN 4 for 55 yards (24-K.Vaccaro).
- Q4 · 0:13IND +22% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown.
- Q3 · 7:21IND +20% win prob(7:21) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at TEN 45 for -8 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by TEN-58-H.Landry at IND 45. 58-H.Landry to IND 45 for no gain (7-J.Brissett). Penalty on IND-13-T.Hilton, Illegal Shift, declined.
- Q4 · 2:24TEN +19% win prob(2:24) 7-J.Brissett up the middle to IND 36 for 1 yard (99-J.Casey).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Colts | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 63 | 54 |
| Total yards | 289 (edge) | 243 |
| Yards per play | 4.6 (edge) | 4.5 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.02 (edge) | -0.08 |
| Success rate | 41% | 43% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 54% | 61% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.09 (edge) | -0.10 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.06 (edge) | -0.04 |
| Third downs | 7/14 (edge) | 1/9 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 3 | 6 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 19 (edge) | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 3 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 0 (edge) |
Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.08.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TEN | TEN 28 | 5 | 9 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 2 | IND | IND 22 | 8 | 32 | 4:19 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | TEN | TEN 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 4 | IND | IND 18 | 4 | 13 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 5 | TEN | TEN 28 | 11 | 73 | 5:31 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | IND | IND 27 | 14 | 79 | 6:55 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | TEN | TEN 25 | 7 | 0 | 4:08 | Punt | |
| 8 | IND | IND 44 | 3 | 4 | 1:31 | Interception | |
| 9 | TEN | TEN 40 | 6 | 13 | 1:08 | Punt | |
| 10 | IND | IND 10 | 8 | 41 | 1:13 | End of half | |
| 11 | IND | IND 10 | 5 | 3 | 1:51 | Punt | |
| 12 | TEN | IND 40 | 5 | 38 | 1:38 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | IND | IND 25 | 9 | 20 | 4:17 | Fumble | |
| 14 | TEN | IND 45 | 5 | 14 | 2:39 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | IND | IND 25 | 8 | 17 | 3:02 | Punt | |
| 16 | TEN | TEN 13 | 11 | 46 | 6:02 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | IND | IND 35 | 4 | 5 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 18 | TEN | TEN 20 | 4 | 5 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 19 | IND | IND 31 | 5 | 69 | 2:03 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | TEN | TEN 25 | 5 | 9 | 1:09 | Punt | |
| 21 | IND | IND 26 | 8 | 6 | 2:22 | Punt | |
| 22 | TEN | TEN 28 | 6 | 27 | 0:56 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | IND | IND 45 | 1 | 0 | 0:11 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Colts gained 79 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- TEN -3
- Closing total
- 43.5
- IND moneyline
- +160
- TEN moneyline
- -178
Titans closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 36 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Nissan Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 93°F, wind 1 mph
- Referee
- Clete Blakeman
- Rest
- IND 7 days · TEN 7 days
- Coaches
- Frank Reich vs Mike Vrabel
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.