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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Jacksonville Jaguars 12 at Houston Texans 13. Final.
Texans -7.5 no coverU 43 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Houston Texans 13, Jaguars 12 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:30, on L.Fournette — 17.3 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:30
L.Fournette
Texans
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 27-L.Fournette rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS.
17.3
Dome
Texans closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Houston Texans 13–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:30, Texans +17.3% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
G.MinshewTexansQ4 13:06(13:06) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at JAX 13 for -7 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus) [59-W.Mercilus], RECOVERED by HOU-99-J.Watt at JAX 11. 99-J.Watt to JAX 11 for no gain (76-W.Richardson).
8.3pts
G.MinshewJaguarsQ4 0:52(:52) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew scrambles right end to HOU 13 for 18 yards (55-B.McKinney; 57-B.Scarlett).
9.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Texans won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Jaguars at 3 of 13 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans won this one — no giveaways, against Jaguars at 1 giveaway.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Texans won this one — +0.01 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.19 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — 6 chunk plays, against Texans at 4 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Jaguars160 of 168 plays carry both curves
Q4 · 0:30Jaguars 12 — Texans 13JAX ballHOU 71%
Jaguars 29%Texans 71%
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 27-L.Fournette rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Swing +17.3 for TexansExpected points +0.95 for TexansThe model had Jaguars 2 points higher than the market did.play 163
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:30JAX +17% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 27-L.Fournette rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS.
4th · 0:52HOU +10% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew scrambles right end to HOU 13 for 18 yards (55-B.McKinney; 57-B.Scarlett).
4th · 13:06JAX +8% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at JAX 13 for -7 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus) [59-W.Mercilus], RECOVERED by HOU-99-J.Watt at JAX 11. 99-J.Watt to JAX 11 for no gain (76-W.Richardson).
4th · 0:36HOU +8% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 11:41HOU +7% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:16HOU +6% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 12-K.Stills pushed ob at JAX 4 for 31 yards (25-D.Hayden).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Fairbairn's 22-yard field goal with 0:02 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:58K.Fairbairn·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.Weeks+30–3
2nd3:21J.Lambo·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Orzech+33–3
2nd0:02K.Fairbairn·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder T.Daniel · snap J.WeeksLead never changed again+33–6
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Texans, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Jaguars: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.09Texans: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Jaguars: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.17Texans: −0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Jaguars: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.01Texans: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 59 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Texans’s 62 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 2, Texans 2.
NoteJaguars outgained Texans 281-264 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Texans16.3%
right on their number · +3.1 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.46× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -6.4 pts, 7.6 points below their season mean of 1.2 pts and 1.4 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
53 dressed · 10 never used
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%64 snaps
76Will RichardsonT · Every snap100%64 snaps
60A.J. CannG · Every snap100%64 snaps
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%64 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
65Brandon LinderC · Every snap100%64 snaps
27Leonard FournetteRB · Full-time97%62 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Full-time86%55 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Full-time84%54 snaps
17D.J. CharkWR · Full-time81%52 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation66%42 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Fournette rushes−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 27-L.Fournette rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Q4 0:30 · Jaguars · — at HOU 2 · gained nothing · -0.95 EP · −17.9% win probability
158 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 71 yards from the HOU 8 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
37%
Yards
544
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0667%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.0563%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1937%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.4271%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.0617%
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 38
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Texans 26
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 26 to the Jaguars 31
Jaguars0Texans3
Field goal15 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Jaguars 21
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 42
2nd quarter42 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Jaguars 33 to the Jaguars 44
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 8 to the Texans 39
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 19
Punt4 plays
Jaguars3Texans3
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 31 to the Texans 22
Jaguars3Texans6
Field goal14 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Jaguars 4
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 40
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 41
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 12 to the Texans 27
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 36 to the Texans 41
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 1 to the Texans 24
4th quarter55 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost2 plays
Jaguars3Texans12
Jaguars3Texans13
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Jaguars 2
Jaguars6Texans13
Field goal13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Texans 14
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Jaguars12Texans13
Touchdown16 plays, from the Jaguars 32 to the Texans 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
The period ended1 play
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
