2019 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2019 · NRG Stadium
Jacksonville Jaguars
12
Houston TexansWinner
13
Houston Texans 13–12 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:30, JAX +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 27-L.Fournette rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:30JAX +17% win probTWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 27-L.Fournette rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS.
- Q4 · 0:52HOU +10% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew scrambles right end to HOU 13 for 18 yards (55-B.McKinney; 57-B.Scarlett).
- Q4 · 13:06JAX +8% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at JAX 13 for -7 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus) [59-W.Mercilus], RECOVERED by HOU-99-J.Watt at JAX 11. 99-J.Watt to JAX 11 for no gain (76-W.Richardson).
- Q4 · 0:36HOU +8% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 17-D.Chark for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Jaguars | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 59 | 62 |
| Total yards | 281 (edge) | 264 |
| Yards per play | 4.8 (edge) | 4.3 |
| Expected points added / play | -0.09 | -0.09 (edge) |
| Success rate | 39% | 42% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 73% | 55% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.06 (edge) | -0.17 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.19 | 0.01 (edge) |
| Third downs | 3/13 | 6/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 16 | 16 |
| Sacks taken | 4 | 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 | 0 (edge) |
Jaguars outgained Texans 281–264 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | JAX 25 | 7 | 9 | 3:08 | Punt | |
| 2 | HOU | HOU 17 | 4 | 9 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 3 | JAX | JAX 26 | 4 | 5 | 1:21 | Punt | |
| 4 | HOU | HOU 8 | 15 | 66 | 7:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | JAX | JAX 15 | 8 | 24 | 3:19 | Punt | |
| 6 | HOU | HOU 8 | 5 | 23 | 2:01 | Punt | |
| 7 | JAX | JAX 15 | 4 | 4 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 8 | HOU | HOU 33 | 4 | -8 | 1:19 | Punt | |
| 9 | JAX | JAX 31 | 10 | 52 | 5:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | HOU | HOU 25 | 12 | 76 | 3:17 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 25 | 7 | 30 | 3:08 | Punt | |
| 12 | JAX | JAX 25 | 6 | 16 | 3:04 | Punt | |
| 13 | HOU | HOU 12 | 6 | 15 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 14 | JAX | JAX 36 | 5 | 31 | 3:04 | Punt | |
| 15 | HOU | HOU 1 | 10 | 30 | 5:10 | Punt | |
| 16 | JAX | JAX 30 | 1 | -9 | 0:27 | Fumble | |
| 17 | HOU | JAX 11 | 5 | 11 | 1:24 | Touchdown | |
| 18 | JAX | JAX 25 | 10 | 86 | 5:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | HOU | HOU 25 | 7 | 12 | 2:25 | Punt | |
| 20 | JAX | JAX 32 | 15 | 63 | 3:06 | Touchdown | |
| 21 | HOU | JAX 48 | 2 | 0 | 0:30 | End of game |
0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- HOU -7.5
- Closing total
- 43
- JAX moneyline
- +286
- HOU moneyline
- -336
Texans closed -7.5, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43; the game landed 25 — under by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- NRG Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Scott Novak
- Rest
- JAX 7 days · HOU 6 days
- Coaches
- Doug Marrone vs Bill O'Brien
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.