For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
DYNATYZE
Loading
This page's interactive half has not started on this device. Nothing was read, and nothing was invented in its place. Reload the page.
2019 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2019 · Ring Central Coliseum
Final
ChiefsKansas City28
BY 18final margin
RaidersOakland10
Kansas City Chiefs 28 at Oakland Raiders 10. Final.
Chiefs -7 ✓U 53.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Kansas City Chiefs 28, Raiders 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 5:57, 3rd and 20, on M.Hardman — 14.4 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Chiefs closed -7 and covered, winning by 18.
Kansas City Chiefs 28–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 5:57, Chiefs +14.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:57 · 3rd and 20
M.Hardman
Chiefs
(5:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 17-M.Hardman for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetChiefsQ1 1:12(1:12) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to KC 21, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-D.Thomas to KC 28 for 7 yards (50-N.Morrow).
8.0pts
D.RobinsonChiefsQ2 15:00(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.1pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 33.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 99 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Chiefs168 of 177 plays carry both curves
(5:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 17-M.Hardman for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.4 for RaidersExpected points −5.78 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 24 points higher than the market did.play 72
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:57OAK +14% win prob(5:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 17-M.Hardman for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 15:00OAK +14% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 11-D.Robinson for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:12OAK +8% win prob(1:12) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to KC 21, Center-47-T.Sieg. 84-D.Thomas to KC 28 for 7 yards (50-N.Morrow).
1st · 5:35OAK +8% win prob(5:35) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 19-R.Grant. PENALTY on KC-32-T.Mathieu, Defensive Pass Interference, 43 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play.
2nd · 9:31OAK +6% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 14-S.Watkins to LV 43 for 11 yards (20-D.Worley).
1st · 4:50OAK +6% win prob(4:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 16-T.Williams for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:47
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
M.Hardman's 42-yard touchdown catch with 5:57 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:24D.Carlson·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+30–3
3 of 3 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
3 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -9 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · −3.7 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Raiders—
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.7 pts, 4.9 points above their season mean of 7.8 pts and 1.1 times their own 4.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
53 dressed · 9 never used
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%75 snaps
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%75 snaps
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%75 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(5:57) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 17-M.Hardman for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 5:57 · Chiefs · 3rd & 20 at LV 42 · gained 42 · +5.78 EP · +18.4% win probability
166 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 95 yards from the KC 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; OAK attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
774
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.4478%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.0773%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2045%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.1867%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.9380%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.4140%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Chiefs0Raiders3
Field goal11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Chiefs 10
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 47
Chiefs0Raiders9
Chiefs0Raiders10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Chiefs 4
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 35
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Raiders 42
The period ended4 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Raiders 49
2nd quarter59 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chiefs6Raiders10
Chiefs7Raiders10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Chiefs13Raiders10
Chiefs14Raiders10
Touchdown18 plays, from the Chiefs 5 to the Raiders 32
Punt7 plays, from the Raiders 29 to midfield
Chiefs20Raiders10
Chiefs21Raiders10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 6 to the Raiders 17
The period ended7 plays
Chiefs27Raiders10
Chiefs28Raiders10
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 48
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Raiders 38
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 19 to the Chiefs 4
Punt8 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 32
Intercepted6 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Raiders 47
The period ended5 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Raiders 33
4th quarter38 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 15
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 22 to the Raiders 30
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 36
Punt11 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Chiefs 45
The period ended13 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Raiders 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Chiefs0
Raiders3
