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Los Angeles Chargers 10 at Detroit Lions 13. Final.
Chargers -1 upsetU 47 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Detroit Lions 13, Chargers 10 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:10, 3rd and 19, on D.Slay — 26.2 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:10 · 3rd and 19
D.Slay
Lions
(1:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at DET -2. Touchback.
Dome
Chargers closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 13–10 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:10, Lions +26.2% win probability on one snap.
26.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
A.EkelerLionsQ3 8:32(8:32) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle to DET 1 for no gain (51-J.Tavai, 32-T.Wilson). FUMBLES (51-J.Tavai), RECOVERED by DET-42-D.Kennard at DET 3. 42-D.Kennard to DET 3 for no gain (80-S.Culkin).
15.7pts
K.GolladayLionsQ4 7:28(7:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 3 trips, against Lions at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 13 on third down, against Lions at 4 of 10 on third down.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 48% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Chargers152 of 160 plays carry both curves
(1:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at DET -2. Touchback.
Swing +26.2 for LionsExpected points +3.40 for LionsThe model had Chargers 5 points higher than the market did.play 153
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:10LAC +26% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at DET -2. Touchback.
4th · 7:28DET +17% win prob(7:28) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 8:32LAC +16% win prob(8:32) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle to DET 1 for no gain (51-J.Tavai, 32-T.Wilson). FUMBLES (51-J.Tavai), RECOVERED by DET-42-D.Kennard at DET 3. 42-D.Kennard to DET 3 for no gain (80-S.Culkin).
2nd · 6:02LAC +15% win prob(6:02) 5-M.Prater 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
3rd · 11:42LAC +13% win prob(11:42) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 19-K.Golladay INTERCEPTED by 26-C.Hayward at LAC -5. Touchback (19-K.Golladay). Penalty on DET-19-K.Golladay, Offensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 3:23DET +13% win prob(3:23) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 13-K.Allen to DET 19 for 11 yards (23-D.Slay).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Golladay's 31-yard touchdown catch with 7:28 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
2nd0:04T.Long·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap C.Mazza+310–6
4th7:28K.Golladay·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom M.Staffordfrom M.StaffordLead never changed again+710–13
4 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryLions
Chargers7–1Lions
424Total yards340
6.8Yards per play6.0
48%Success rate46%
46%Third-down rate40%
1Red-zone touchdowns0
9Explosive plays5
19First downs18
1Sacks taken0
2Turnovers2
The read
Chargers ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.03Chargers: −0.03 expected points added per play
+0.01Lions: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Chargers: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Chargers: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.18Lions: −0.18 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 62 snaps at a 61% dropback rate against Lions’s 57 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 3, Lions 2.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's sack or hit rate, 3.1%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 12 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.1 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (−1.14× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Lions7.9%
inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.57× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 3.1%, 9.1 points below their season mean of 12.2% and 1.1 times their own 8.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
53 dressed · 8 never used
69Sam TeviT · Every snap100%65 snaps
78Trent ScottT · Every snap100%65 snaps
75Michael SchofieldG · Every snap100%65 snaps
66Dan FeeneyG · Every snap100%65 snaps
17Philip RiversQB · Every snap100%65 snaps
53Mike PounceyC · Every snap100%65 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time91%59 snaps
88Virgil GreenTE · Full-time88%57 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Heavy rotation74%48 snaps
12Travis BenjaminWR · Heavy rotation66%43 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Heavy rotation62%40 snaps
15Dontrelle InmanWR · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
22Justin JacksonRB · Rotational26%17 snaps
80Sean CulkinTE · Rotational25%16 snaps
34Derek WattFB · Situational9%6 snaps
77Forrest LampOG · Situational3%2 snaps
11Geremy DavisWR · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Michael DavisCBRoderic TeamerDBCortez BroughtonDTMike BadgleyKJatavis BrownOLBEaston StickQBTroymaine PopeRBHunter HenryTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Rivers pass−33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Slay at DET -2. Touchback.
Q4 1:10 · Chargers · 3rd & 19 at DET 28 · gained nothing · -3.40 EP · −33.4% win probability
150 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 82 yards from the LAC 15 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.09
Success rate
43%
Yards
763
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1570%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.1652%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.0775%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.8725%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.3333%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.0740%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Chargers 29
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Lions 24
Chargers6Lions0
Chargers7Lions0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Lions 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chargers7Lions6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Chargers 36
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 32
The period ended4 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Lions 27
2nd quarter47 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Lions 46
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Chargers 28
No good10 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Chargers 22
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 30 to the Chargers 39
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Chargers 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Chargers10Lions6
Field goal9 plays, from the Chargers 3 to the Lions 21
3rd quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.3 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Chargers 31
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Lions 1
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 3 to the Lions 11
No good8 plays, from the Chargers 37 to the Lions 21
Intercepted3 plays, from the Lions 29 to the Lions 39
The period ended3 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 20
4th quarter37 plays
No good6 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Lions 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Chargers10Lions12
Chargers10Lions13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Chargers 31
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted15 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Lions 19
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
