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Minnesota Vikings 16 at Green Bay Packers 21. Final.
Packers -3 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Green Bay Packers 21, Vikings 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:17, 1st and 8, on K.King — 33.8 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:17 · 1st and 8
K.King
Packers
(5:17) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB -9. Touchback.
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.
Green Bay Packers 21–16. Biggest swing: Q4 5:17, Packers +33.8% win probability on one snap.
33.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.BeebeVikingsQ2 1:28(1:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 12-C.Beebe to GB 3 for 61 yards (26-D.Savage) [55-Z.Smith]. Penalty on MIN-19-A.Thielen, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on GB-23-J.Alexander, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
7.3pts
S.DiggsVikingsQ3 9:19(9:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-14-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
18.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Vikings at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Packers won this one — 2 giveaways, against Vikings at 4 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Packers at 6 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Vikings171 of 180 plays carry both curves
(5:17) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB -9. Touchback.
Swing +33.8 for PackersExpected points +5.64 for PackersModel and market agree here.play 158
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:17MIN +34% win prob(5:17) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB -9. Touchback.
3rd · 9:19GB +18% win prob(9:19) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 14-S.Diggs for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-14-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
2nd · 1:28GB +7% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 12-C.Beebe to GB 3 for 61 yards (26-D.Savage) [55-Z.Smith]. Penalty on MIN-19-A.Thielen, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on GB-23-J.Alexander, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.
3rd · 4:49GB +7% win prob(4:49) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen to MIN 48 for 30 yards (23-J.Alexander). Green Bay challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
1st · 9:21MIN +7% win prob(9:21) 5-D.Bailey 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
1st · 15:00GB +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Williams's 15-yard touchdown catch with 12:59 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:59J.Williams·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom A.Rodgersfrom A.RodgersLead never changed again+70–7
Packers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Vikings: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.12Packers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.32Vikings: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.00Packers: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.28Vikings: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.25Packers: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 60 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Packers’s 69 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 3, Packers 3.
NoteVikings outgained Packers 421-335 but lost the turnover battle 4-2. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's sack or hit rate, 25.0%, sat 9.8 points above their season number of 15.2% — they got home by 2.1 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 1.
36 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 19 pts
off script — got home · +9.8 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+2.08× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Packers14.3%
right on their number · −0.3 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 25.0%, 9.8 points above their season mean of 15.2% and 2.1 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−34% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:17) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 20-K.King at GB -9. Touchback.
Q4 5:17 · Vikings · 1st & goal at GB 8 · gained nothing · -5.64 EP · −33.7% win probability
169 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 75 yards from the GB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
34%
Yards
756
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34-0.3368%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.2536%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.7063%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.2333%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR11+0.3682%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.0156%
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.3520%
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Vikings0Packers6
Vikings0Packers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 15
No good9 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Packers 29
Vikings0Packers13
Vikings0Packers14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Vikings 7
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 40
The period ended3 plays, from the Vikings 33 to the Vikings 18
2nd quarter58 plays
Vikings0Packers20
Vikings0Packers21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Vikings 2
Vikings6Packers21
Vikings7Packers21
Touchdown4 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Vikings 36
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Vikings 30
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Packers 39
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 29
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Packers 35
Intercepted3 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Vikings 44
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Vikings 25
Vikings10Packers21
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Packers 3
Punt6 plays
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Vikings16Packers21
Touchdown5 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Packers 25 to midfield
Punt10 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Packers 40
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 1 to the Packers 16
4th quarter45 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 39
Punt5 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Vikings 40 to the Packers 8
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 28
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Vikings 27
Punt12 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Vikings 47
Fumble lost1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -3
Closing total
43
Vikings moneyline
+148
Packers moneyline
-165
Packers closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 43; the game landed 37 — under by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 76°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south; 0.01 in of precipitation; overcast.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Packers 10 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Matt LaFleur
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(15:00) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at MIN 36 for 39 yards (22-H.Smith).
4th · 2:27GB +6% win prob(2:27) 33-A.Jones right end to GB 36 for 13 yards (22-H.Smith; 41-A.Harris).
4th · 7:31GB +6% win prob(7:31) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph to GB 33 for 5 yards (50-B.Martinez). GB-55-Z.Smith was injured during the play.
