2019 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
New England PatriotsWinner
43
Miami Dolphins
0
New England Patriots 43–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 8:32, NE +3% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(8:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 8:32NE +3% win prob(8:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
- Q2 · 12:46NE +2% win prob(12:46) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
- Q2 · 1:24MIA +2% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 17-A.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 7:38NE +1% win prob(7:38) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 21 yards to NE 35, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Patriots | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 64 | 61 |
| Total yards | 379 (edge) | 184 |
| Yards per play | 5.9 (edge) | 3.0 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.19 (edge) | -0.73 |
| Success rate | 50% (edge) | 28% |
| Dropback rate | 47% | 77% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.53 (edge) | -0.84 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.11 (edge) | -0.35 |
| Third downs | 6/11 (edge) | 2/15 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 6 (edge) | 1 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 24 (edge) | 10 |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 7 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 4 |
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.73.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | -3 | 1:22 | Punt | |
| 2 | NE | NE 40 | 11 | 57 | 5:52 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | MIA | MIA 25 | 9 | 32 | 4:47 | Punt | |
| 4 | NE | NE 17 | 6 | 23 | 3:11 | Punt | |
| 5 | MIA | MIA 8 | 4 | 9 | 2:10 | Punt | |
| 6 | NE | NE 29 | 8 | 41 | 4:16 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | MIA | MIA 38 | 4 | 6 | 0:52 | Punt | |
| 8 | NE | NE 35 | 12 | 65 | 6:11 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 7 | 1:06 | Punt | |
| 10 | NE | NE 17 | 1 | 0 | 0:13 | End of half | |
| 11 | NE | NE 25 | 6 | 21 | 2:17 | Punt | |
| 12 | MIA | MIA 15 | 3 | 0 | 0:17 | Interception | |
| 13 | NE | MIA 36 | 10 | 26 | 3:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 14 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | -2 | 1:19 | Punt | |
| 15 | NE | NE 35 | 9 | 75 | 5:08 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | MIA | MIA 35 | 5 | -11 | 1:48 | Punt | |
| 17 | NE | NE 29 | 5 | 10 | 2:34 | Punt | |
| 18 | MIA | MIA 33 | 5 | 18 | 2:11 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 19 | MIA | MIA 25 | 5 | 37 | 1:48 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 20 | MIA | MIA 25 | 11 | 24 | 3:06 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | NE | NE 36 | 1 | 2 | 0:08 | Fumble | |
| 22 | MIA | NE 41 | 4 | 0 | 0:34 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | NE | NE 41 | 6 | 59 | 2:59 | Touchdown | |
| 24 | MIA | MIA 25 | 11 | 67 | 2:10 | Interception |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -18
- Closing total
- 48.5
- NE moneyline
- -1300
- MIA moneyline
- +880
Patriots closed -18 and covered, winning by 43.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 43 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 87°F, wind 4 mph
- Referee
- Bill Vinovich
- Rest
- NE 7 days · MIA 7 days
- Coaches
- Bill Belichick vs Brian Flores
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.