For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants are available only for registry-approved public pages by appending .md to eligible URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown.
Sync your league to My Playbook for custom advice

2019 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

43

Miami Dolphins

0

NE -18 ✓U 48.5 ✓

New England Patriots 43–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 8:32, NE +3% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3MIANE
Q2 · 8:32NE MIA NE ball · 4th & 3NE 97%

(8:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 8:32NE +3% win prob(8:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
  2. Q2 · 12:46NE +2% win prob(12:46) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 54 yards to NE 29, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
  3. Q2 · 1:24MIA +2% win prob(1:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep left to 17-A.Brown for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q2 · 7:38NE +1% win prob(7:38) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 21 yards to NE 35, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPatriotsDolphins
Offensive plays6461
Total yards379 (edge)184
Yards per play5.9 (edge)3.0
Expected points added / play0.19 (edge)-0.73
Success rate50% (edge)28%
Dropback rate47%77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.53 (edge)-0.84
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)-0.11 (edge)-0.35
Third downs6/11 (edge)2/15
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)6 (edge)1
First downs gained on snaps24 (edge)10
Sacks taken2 (edge)7
Turnovers1 (edge)4

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.73.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1MIAMIA 255-31:22Punt
2NENE 4011575:52Touchdown
3MIAMIA 259324:47Punt
4NENE 176233:11Punt
5MIAMIA 8492:10Punt
6NENE 298414:16Turnover on downs
7MIAMIA 38460:52Punt
8NENE 3512656:11Touchdown
9MIAMIA 25571:06Punt
10NENE 17100:13End of half
11NENE 256212:17Punt
12MIAMIA 15300:17Interception
13NEMIA 3610263:41Turnover on downs
14MIAMIA 255-21:19Punt
15NENE 359755:08Touchdown
16MIAMIA 355-111:48Punt
17NENE 295102:34Punt
18MIAMIA 335182:11Defensive touchdown
19MIAMIA 255371:48Defensive touchdown
20MIAMIA 2511243:06Turnover on downs
21NENE 36120:08Fumble
22MIANE 41400:34Turnover on downs
23NENE 416592:59Touchdown
24MIAMIA 2511672:10Interception

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
NE -18
Closing total
48.5
NE moneyline
-1300
MIA moneyline
+880

Patriots closed -18 and covered, winning by 43.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 43 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
87°F, wind 4 mph
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
NE 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Brian Flores

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.