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2019 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
SaintsNew Orleans9
BY 18final margin
RamsLos Angeles27
New Orleans Saints 9 at Los Angeles Rams 27. Final.
Rams -2 ✓U 52.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Los Angeles Rams 27, Saints 9 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:40, 3rd and 16, on B.Cooks — 14.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:40 · 3rd and 16
B.Cooks
Rams
(11:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 12-B.Cooks to NO 11 for 57 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
14.9
Rams closed -2 and covered, winning by 18.
Los Angeles Rams 27–9 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:40, Rams +14.9% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.JohnsonRamsQ1 12:34(12:34) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson (32-E.Weddle) at LA 38. 43-J.Johnson to LA 38 for no gain (87-J.Cook).
9.7pts
J.GoffSaintsQ2 6:08(6:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right [93-D.Onyemata]. New Orleans challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at NO 19 for -8 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson) [93-D.Onyemata], RECOVERED by NO-94-C.Jordan at NO 13.
11.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Saints at -0.37 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Saints at 0 touchdowns on 1 trip.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.15 expected points per snap, against Saints at -0.21 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Rams won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Saints at 2 chunk plays.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Rams.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Saints164 of 173 plays carry both curves
(11:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 12-B.Cooks to NO 11 for 57 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
Swing +14.9 for RamsExpected points +5.07 for RamsThe model had Rams 4 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:40LA +15% win prob(11:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 12-B.Cooks to NO 11 for 57 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
2nd · 6:08NO +11% win prob(6:08) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right [93-D.Onyemata]. New Orleans challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at NO 19 for -8 yards (91-T.Hendrickson). FUMBLES (91-T.Hendrickson) [93-D.Onyemata], RECOVERED by NO-94-C.Jordan at NO 13.
1st · 12:34NO +10% win prob(12:34) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson (32-E.Weddle) at LA 38. 43-J.Johnson to LA 38 for no gain (87-J.Cook).
3rd · 9:10LA +7% win prob(9:10) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-C.Kupp to NO 30 for 27 yards (43-M.Williams).
2nd · 2:47NO +7% win prob(2:47) 41-A.Kamara right tackle to NO 48 for no gain (50-S.Ebukam, 90-M.Brockers).
3rd · 14:02LA +7% win prob(14:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 28-L.Murray to NO 40 for 16 yards (23-N.Robey).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Gurley's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 5:43 left in the 3rd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:46G.Zuerlein·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
2nd11:10W.Lutz·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+33–3
2nd0:07G.Zuerlein·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–6
3rd9:59W.Lutz·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder T.Morstead · snap Z.Wood+36–6
3rd5:43T.Gurley·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+76–13
Rams ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Saints: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.15Rams: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.14Saints: −0.14 expected points added per play
+0.25Rams: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.37Saints: −0.37 expected points added per play
+0.04Rams: +0.04 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 57 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Rams’s 58 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Saints 1, Rams 6.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs -0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Rams7.7%
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -2.3 pts, 6.5 points below their season mean of 4.1 pts and 1.4 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 8 never used
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%63 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%63 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%63 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%63 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time98%62 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Full-time86%54 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation68%43 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation63%40 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Heavy rotation60%38 snaps
19Ted GinnWR · Heavy rotation60%38 snaps
75Andrus PeatT · Heavy rotation52%33 snaps
64Will ClappC · Heavy rotation51%32 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Rotational43%27 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational35%22 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Rotational33%21 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Rotational33%21 snaps
9Drew BreesQB · Situational14%9 snaps
11Deonte HarrisWR · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Ken CrawleyCBSaquan HamptonDBTaylor StallworthDTSheldon RankinsDTNick EastonGEthan GreenidgeTKeith KirkwoodWRAustin CarrWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Goff pass+13% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(11:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 12-B.Cooks to NO 11 for 57 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
Q1 11:40 · Rams · 3rd & 16 at LA 32 · gained 57 · +5.07 EP · +13.3% win probability
162 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 75 yards from the LA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
39%
Yards
624
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.1854%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.0889%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17-0.0782%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.5044%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Saints0Rams3
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Saints 3
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 49
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 8 to the Rams 20
Punt10 plays, from midfield to the Rams 34
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Rams 15
Saints3Rams3
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 41 to the Rams 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 11
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 48
Saints3Rams6
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Saints 4
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 34
Saints6Rams6
Field goal11 plays, from the Saints 29 to the Rams 34
Saints6Rams12
Saints6Rams13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 4
Punt5 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 29
Saints6Rams19
Saints6Rams20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Saints 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 37
4th quarter43 plays
Saints9Rams20
Field goal9 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Rams 20
Saints9Rams26
Saints9Rams27
Touchdown7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Saints 1
Punt10 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 49
Punt9 plays, from the Rams 11 to the Rams 27
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 25
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -2
Closing total
52.5
Saints moneyline
+107
Rams moneyline
-118
Rams closed -2 and covered, winning by 18.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 36 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 87°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Saints 6 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Sean McVay
2nd · 12:46LA +7% win prob(12:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 87-J.Cook to LA 20 for 18 yards (23-N.Robey) [99-A.Donald].
2nd · 4:49LA +6% win prob(4:49) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater sacked at NO 20 for -4 yards (69-S.Joseph). PENALTY on LA-69-S.Joseph, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NO 24 - No Play.
