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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Philadelphia Eagles 20 at Atlanta Falcons 24. Final.
Eagles -1 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Atlanta Falcons 24, Eagles 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:20, 4th and 3, on J.Jones — 49.2 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:20 · 4th and 3
J.Jones
Falcons
(2:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
49.2
U 53 ✓
Eagles closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 2:20, Falcons +49.2% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
N.AgholorEaglesQ4 1:29(1:29) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor to ATL 18 for 43 yards (37-R.Allen) [99-A.Clayborn]. ATL-37-R.Allen was injured during the play. PHI-71-J.Peters was injured during the play. ATL-99-A.Clayborn was injured during the play. Both teams charged with injury timeout.
36.3pts
Z.ErtzFalconsQ4 0:38(:38) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to ATL 9 for 7 yards (26-I.Oliver; 22-K.Neal). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
30.5pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Falcons won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Eagles at 1 chunk play.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 18 on third down, against Falcons at 3 of 10 on third down.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Falcons won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Eagles173 of 186 plays carry both curves
(2:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +49.2 for FalconsExpected points +6.86 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 8 points higher than the market did.play 166
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:20ATL +49% win prob(2:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:29ATL +36% win prob(1:29) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 13-N.Agholor to ATL 18 for 43 yards (37-R.Allen) [99-A.Clayborn]. ATL-37-R.Allen was injured during the play. PHI-71-J.Peters was injured during the play. ATL-99-A.Clayborn was injured during the play. Both teams charged with injury timeout.
4th · 0:38PHI +31% win prob(:38) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to ATL 9 for 7 yards (26-I.Oliver; 22-K.Neal). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 0:21PHI +15% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 47-N.Gerry at PHI 0. Touchback. PENALTY on PHI-96-D.Barnett, Unnecessary Roughness, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 20.
2nd · 5:04ATL +14% win prob(5:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 18-C.Ridley for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:59ATL +14% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Jones's 54-yard touchdown catch with 2:20 left in the 4th put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:33M.Bryant·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+30–3
2nd10:50J.Elliott·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–3
4th2:20J.Jones·54-yd TD catch54-yard touchdown catchfrom M.Ryanfrom M.RyanLead never changed again+720–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryFalcons
Eagles3–4Falcons
288Total yards368
3.9Yards per play6.1
39%Success rate38%
50%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
1Explosive plays5
18First downs18
3Sacks taken1
3Turnovers3
The read
Falcons ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Eagles: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.01Falcons: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.06Eagles: −0.06 expected points added per play
+0.04Falcons: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Eagles: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.19Falcons: −0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 74 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Falcons’s 60 at 75%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Falcons 4.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
ATL's pass rate over expected, +14.3 pts, sat 11.4 points above their season number of +2.9 pts — they threw more than the situation asked by 2.3 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −3.4 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Falcons19.2%
leaned — got home · +9.0 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 52 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 14.3 pts, 11.4 points above their season mean of 2.9 pts and 2.3 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jordan MillerDBBrian HillHBDeadrin SenatNTMatt BosherPMatt SchaubQBQadree OllisonRBMatt GonoTJohn WetzelTOlamide ZaccheausWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass+45% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:20) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:20 · Falcons · 4th & 3 at ATL 46 · gained 54 · +6.86 EP · +45.1% win probability
171 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 75 yards from the ATL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
38%
Yards
655
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR71-0.1272%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.0687%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.4055%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0943%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Eagles0Falcons3
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Eagles 26
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 45
Punt9 plays, from the Falcons 1 to the Falcons 23
Intercepted6 plays, from the Eagles 43 to the Falcons 45
Punt4 plays
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Eagles3Falcons3
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Falcons 8
No good11 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Eagles 32
Intercepted1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Eagles3Falcons9
Eagles3Falcons10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 35 to the Eagles 34
Punt11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 32
Intercepted4 plays, from the Falcons 6 to the Falcons 25
Eagles6Falcons10
Field goal12 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Falcons 13
3rd quarter37 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Eagles6Falcons16
Eagles6Falcons17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Eagles 33 to the Eagles 4
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 29 to the Eagles 43
Intercepted4 plays, from the Falcons 9 to the Falcons 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Eagles12Falcons17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Falcons 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Eagles 8
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 45 to the Falcons 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.2 seconds
Eagles18Falcons17
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Falcons 1
Eagles20Falcons17
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw1.5 seconds
Eagles20Falcons23
Eagles20Falcons24
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
The period ended17 plays, from the Eagles 32 to the Falcons 16
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
