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Seattle Seahawks 28 at Pittsburgh Steelers 26. Final.
Steelers -4 upsetO 47 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Seattle Seahawks 28, Steelers 26 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 5:49, 1st and 10 — 21.6 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:49 · 1st and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Steelers
(5:49) 3-R.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 7, RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at SEA 14. 55-D.Bush pushed ob at SEA 3 for 11 yards (18-J.Brown). The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Steelers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Seattle Seahawks 28–26 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 5:49, Steelers +21.6% win probability on one snap.
21.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.CarsonSteelersQ1 0:22(:22) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle to SEA 33 for 1 yard (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-26-M.Barron at SEA 34. 26-M.Barron for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on PIT-21-S.Davis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 12.
19.2pts
R.PennySeahawksQ3 3:04(3:04) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right guard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.9pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — +0.10 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Seahawks won this one — 8 chunk plays, against Steelers at 3 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Steelers at -0.15 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Seahawks won this one — 5 of 12 on third down, against Steelers at 3 of 11 on third down.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Seahawks.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Seahawks168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(5:49) 3-R.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 7, RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at SEA 14. 55-D.Bush pushed ob at SEA 3 for 11 yards (18-J.Brown). The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was
Swing +21.6 for SteelersExpected points +6.06 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 158
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:49SEA +22% win prob(5:49) 3-R.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 7, RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at SEA 14. 55-D.Bush pushed ob at SEA 3 for 11 yards (18-J.Brown). The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 0:22SEA +19% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle to SEA 33 for 1 yard (90-T.Watt). FUMBLES (90-T.Watt), RECOVERED by PIT-26-M.Barron at SEA 34. 26-M.Barron for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on PIT-21-S.Davis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 12.
3rd · 3:04PIT +14% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 20-R.Penny right guard for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 8:54PIT +14% win prob(8:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 16-T.Lockett [48-B.Dupree]. Coverage by 34-Edmunds, Pressure by 90-Watt. Seattle challenged the play for possible defensive pass interference, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep middle to 16-T.Lockett [48-B.Dupree]. Coverage by 34-Edmunds, Pressure by 90-Watt. PENALTY on PIT-34-Te.Edmunds, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards, enforced at SEA 27 - No Play.
4th · 2:00PIT +13% win prob(2:00) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson up the middle to PIT 31 for 2 yards (97-C.Heyward).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
W.Dissly's 12-yard touchdown catch with 9:54 left in the 3rd put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Seahawks ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Steelers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Seahawks: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.07Steelers: −0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Seahawks: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.15Steelers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.41Seahawks: −0.41 expected points added per play
+0.10Steelers: +0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 69 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Steelers’s 52 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Steelers 4.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's pass rate over expected turned over: −11.4 pts in week 1 against +0.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
69 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Steelers14.6%
inside their normal wobble · −4.6 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.76× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.7 pts, 9.9 points above their season mean of -2.2 pts and 1.1 times their own 9.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kam KellyDBJustin LayneDBIsaiah BuggsDERoosevelt NixFBFred JohnsonGJay ElliottLBChukwuma OkoraforTZach GentryTE
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson FUMBLES−19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:49) 3-R.Wilson FUMBLES (Aborted) at SEA 7, RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at SEA 14. 55-D.Bush pushed ob at SEA 3 for 11 yards (18-J.Brown). The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 5:49 · Seahawks · 1st & 10 at SEA 11 · gained nothing · -6.06 EP · −18.9% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
44%
Yards
686
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1266%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1384%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.1211%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.0144%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3388%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.0750%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Steelers0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 30
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Steelers 44
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 27
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Steelers 46
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Steelers 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 32
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Seahawks0Steelers6
Seahawks0Steelers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 1
Seahawks6Steelers7
Seahawks7Steelers7
Touchdown16 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Steelers 14
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 29
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Seahawks 36
Seahawks7Steelers10
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Seahawks 22
No good12 plays, from the Seahawks 13 to the Steelers 34
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 16 to the Seahawks 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 21
Seahawks13Steelers10
Seahawks14Steelers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 40 to the Steelers 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Seahawks14Steelers13
Field goal8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Seahawks 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Seahawks20Steelers13
Seahawks21Steelers13
Touchdown9 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Steelers 37
The period ended7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to midfield
4th quarter48 plays
Seahawks21Steelers19
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Seahawks 8
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Seahawks27Steelers19
Seahawks28Steelers19
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Steelers 28
Punt7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 43
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Seahawks28Steelers25
Seahawks28Steelers26
Touchdown5 plays
The period ended16 plays, from the Seahawks 40 to the Steelers 31
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -4
Closing total
47
Seahawks moneyline
+175
Steelers moneyline
-197
Steelers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 54 — over by 7.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 77°F at kickoff; still at 1 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Seahawks 7 days · Steelers 7 days
Coaches
Pete Carroll vs Mike Tomlin
4th · 7:22PIT +11% win prob(7:22) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 14-DK.Metcalf for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:04PIT +11% win prob(9:04) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to SEA 16 for 45 yards (42-D.Hill). Fleaflicker play. 30-Conner took the hand off before the pass.
3rd · 12:40SEA +9% win prob(12:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left intended for 11-D.Moncrief INTERCEPTED by 30-B.McDougald at PIT 40. 30-B.McDougald ran ob at PIT 40 for no gain.
Seahawkscategory by categorySteelers
Seahawks0
Steelers6
