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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 7:02 AM ET · 16 final
2019 Week 2 · Sun, Sep 15, 2019 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
49ersSan Francisco41
BY 24final margin
BengalsCincinnati17
San Francisco 49ers 41 at Cincinnati Bengals 17. Final.
Bengals -1 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
San Francisco 49ers 41, Bengals 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 14:15, 2nd and 20, on W.Jackson — 11.6 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
O 46 ✓
Bengals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
San Francisco 49ers 41–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:15, Bengals +11.6% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:15 · 2nd and 20
W.Jackson
Bengals
(14:15) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left intended for 13-R.James Jr. INTERCEPTED by 22-W.Jackson III at SF 45. 22-W.Jackson III pushed ob at SF 26 for 19 yards (85-G.Kittle).
11.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.BoydBengalsQ1 11:08(11:08) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to SF 22 for 47 yards (23-A.Witherspoon).
10.5pts
K.Alexander49ersQ2 1:20(1:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 85-T.Eifert INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Alexander at SF 33. 56-K.Alexander pushed ob at SF 33 for no gain (85-T.Eifert). Penalty on CIN-68-B.Hart, Offensive Holding, declined.
9.0pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 15 chunk plays, against Bengals at 4 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 61% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
49ers won this one — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.35 expected points per carry.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
49ers won this one — +0.45 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.03 expected points per snap.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on 49ers175 of 183 plays carry both curves
(14:15) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left intended for 13-R.James Jr. INTERCEPTED by 22-W.Jackson III at SF 45. 22-W.Jackson III pushed ob at SF 26 for 19 yards (85-G.Kittle).
Swing +11.6 for BengalsExpected points +3.34 for BengalsModel and market agree here.play 47
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:15SF +12% win prob(14:15) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep left intended for 13-R.James Jr. INTERCEPTED by 22-W.Jackson III at SF 45. 22-W.Jackson III pushed ob at SF 26 for 19 yards (85-G.Kittle).
1st · 11:08CIN +11% win prob(11:08) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep left to 83-T.Boyd to SF 22 for 47 yards (23-A.Witherspoon).
2nd · 1:20SF +9% win prob(1:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 85-T.Eifert INTERCEPTED by 56-K.Alexander at SF 33. 56-K.Alexander pushed ob at SF 33 for no gain (85-T.Eifert). Penalty on CIN-68-B.Hart, Offensive Holding, declined.
1st · 14:54SF +8% win prob(14:54) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CIN 4 for -8 yards (91-A.Armstead).
2nd · 12:53SF +7% win prob(12:53) 4-R.Bullock 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
1st · 2:46CIN +7% win prob(2:46) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 31-R.Mostert for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
R.Mostert's 39-yard touchdown catch with 2:46 left in the 1st put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
49ers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.68 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.4549ers: +0.45 expected points added per play
−0.03Bengals: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.6849ers: +0.68 expected points added per play
+0.09Bengals: +0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.2849ers: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.35Bengals: −0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 66 snaps at a 42% dropback rate against Bengals’s 65 at 72%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 8, Bengals 4.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.45 expected points added per play vs -0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
1 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
CIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 37.5% in week 1 against 7.1% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points. · −0.9σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.12× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Bengals7.1%
inside their normal wobble · −8.2 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was CIN's sack or hit rate, 7.1% against a season mean of 15.4% — and CIN swings 9.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
San Francisco 49ers
53 dressed · 9 never used
75Laken TomlinsonG · Every snap100%70 snaps
69Mike McGlincheyOT · Every snap100%70 snaps
58Weston RichburgC · Every snap100%70 snaps
10Jimmy GaroppoloQB · Every snap100%70 snaps
—Michael PersonG · Full-time91%64 snaps
74Joe StaleyT · Heavy rotation73%51 snaps
85George KittleTE · Heavy rotation67%47 snaps
44Kyle JuszczykRB · Heavy rotation53%37 snaps
18Dante PettisWR · Heavy rotation50%35 snaps
11Marquise GoodwinWR · Heavy rotation50%35 snaps
83Levine ToiloloTE · Rotational47%33 snaps
31Raheem MostertRB · Rotational46%32 snaps
13Richie JamesWR · Rotational44%31 snaps
19Deebo SamuelWR · Rotational39%27 snaps
84Kendrick BourneWR · Rotational33%23 snaps
22Matt BreidaRB · Rotational30%21 snaps
67Justin SkuleT · Rotational27%19 snaps
30Jeff WilsonRB · Situational21%15 snaps
82Ross DwelleyTE · Situational20%14 snaps
63Ben GarlandG · Situational9%6 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Mike PersonCJason VerrettCBJimmie WardFSDaniel BrunskillOTNick MullensQBC.J. BeathardQBTevin ColemanRBJalen HurdWRTrent TaylorWR
Cincinnati Bengals
53 dressed · 8 never used
66Trey HopkinsG · Every snap100%69 snaps
68Bobby HartOT · Every snap100%69 snaps
67John MillerG · Every snap100%69 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
11John RossWR · Full-time86%59 snaps
83Tyler BoydWR · Heavy rotation78%54 snaps
60Mike JordanOG · Heavy rotation78%54 snaps
64John JerryG · Heavy rotation68%47 snaps
15Damion WillisWR · Heavy rotation64%44 snaps
87C.J. UzomahTE · Heavy rotation61%42 snaps
28Joe MixonHB · Heavy rotation55%38 snaps
25Giovani BernardHB · Rotational39%27 snaps
19Auden TateWR · Rotational36%25 snaps
71Andre SmithT · Rotational32%22 snaps
89Drew SampleTE · Rotational28%19 snaps
85Tyler EifertTE · Rotational26%18 snaps
53Billy PriceC · Situational22%15 snaps
12Alex EricksonWR · Situational22%15 snaps
34Samaje PerineRB · Situational6%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Andrew BrownDERenell WrenDTCordy GlennOTRyan FinleyQBJake DolegalaQBTrayveon WilliamsRBPharoh CooperWRA.J. GreenWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Garoppolo pass+10% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:46) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 31-R.Mostert for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 2:46 · 49ers · 2nd & 4 at CIN 39 · gained 39 · +3.93 EP · +10.4% win probability
173 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 84 yards from the SF 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
44%
Yards
887
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.0674%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27+0.3863%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.5935%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR16+0.5019%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1850%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.270%
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
49ers6Bengals0
49ers7Bengals0
Touchdown5 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the Bengals 38
49ers7Bengals6
49ers7Bengals7
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the 49ers 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
49ers13Bengals7
49ers14Bengals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the 49ers 16 to the Bengals 39
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 42
2nd quarter63 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Bengals 24 to the Bengals 31
Intercepted5 plays
No good5 plays
49ers20Bengals7
49ers21Bengals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 42 to the Bengals 2
49ers21Bengals10
Field goal11 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the 49ers 19
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Bengals 29
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bengals 3 to the Bengals 46
49ers24Bengals10
Field goal13 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the Bengals 15
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
49ers30Bengals10
49ers31Bengals10
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Bengals 2
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 37
49ers34Bengals10
Field goal9 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Bengals 20
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 33
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 18 to the Bengals 13
4th quarter43 plays
49ers40Bengals10
49ers41Bengals10
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 10 to the Bengals 15
No good10 plays, from the 49ers 40 to the Bengals 15
Turnover on downs12 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the 49ers 16
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 33
49ers41Bengals16
49ers41Bengals17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Bengals 34
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
49erscategory by categoryBengals
49ers6
Bengals0
