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2019 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 12, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay20
BY 6final margin
PanthersCarolina14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 at Carolina Panthers 14. Final.
Panthers -6.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20, Panthers 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 8:40, 4th and 1, on C.Newton — 42.2 win-probability points to the Buccaneers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 8:40 · 4th and 1
C.Newton
Buccaneers
(8:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end to TB 47 for no gain (31-J.Whitehead). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:31.)
U 48 ✓
Panthers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–14. Biggest swing: Q1 8:40, Buccaneers +42.2% win probability on one snap.
42.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
C.NewtonBuccaneersQ3 3:04(3:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to CAR 44 for no gain (98-A.Nelson; 54-L.David). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson), RECOVERED by TB-93-N.Suh at CAR 45. 93-N.Suh to CAR 45 for no gain (72-T.Moton).
16.6pts
C.McCaffreyBuccaneersQ4 1:28(1:28) Direct snap to 22-C.McCaffrey. 22-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at TB 2 for no gain (28-V.Hargreaves). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
33.2pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Buccaneers won this one — -0.12 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.69 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Buccaneers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Panthers at 5 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Panthers at -0.24 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Buccaneers176 of 184 plays carry both curves
(8:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end to TB 47 for no gain (31-J.Whitehead). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:31.)
Swing −42.2 for PanthersExpected points +1.67 for PanthersThe model had Buccaneers 15 points higher than the market did.play 16
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 8:40TB +42% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end to TB 47 for no gain (31-J.Whitehead). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:31.)
4th · 1:28TB +33% win prob(1:28) Direct snap to 22-C.McCaffrey. 22-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at TB 2 for no gain (28-V.Hargreaves). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 3:04TB +17% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to CAR 44 for no gain (98-A.Nelson; 54-L.David). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson), RECOVERED by TB-93-N.Suh at CAR 45. 93-N.Suh to CAR 45 for no gain (72-T.Moton).
2nd · 1:25CAR +16% win prob(1:25) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:50CAR +12% win prob(1:50) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 10-C.Samuel to TB 22 for 9 yards (33-C.Davis). PENALTY on TB-33-C.Davis, Face Mask (15 Yards), 11 yards, enforced at TB 22. Penalty on TB-33-C.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. Administrative review for enforcement.
2nd · 0:03
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
P.Barber's 16-yard rushing touchdown with 4:25 left in the 3rd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:40M.Gay·40-yd field goal40-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+33–0
1st2:56J.Slye·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+33–3
2nd8:30J.Slye·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+33–6
2nd0:03J.Slye·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+310–9
3rd7:58J.Slye·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+310–12
3rd4:25P.Barber·16-yd TD run16-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–12
4th13:30L.Kuechly·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+217–14
4th2:30M.Gay·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+320–14
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPanthers
Buccaneers5–3Panthers
291Total yards352
5.1Yards per play4.8
42%Success rate37%
18%Third-down rate21%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
9Explosive plays5
15First downs18
3Sacks taken3
0Turnovers1
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.69 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Buccaneers: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.24Panthers: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Buccaneers: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.08Panthers: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Buccaneers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.69Panthers: −0.69 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 57 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Panthers’s 73 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 3, Panthers 4.
NotePanthers outgained Buccaneers 352-291 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CAR's sack or hit rate, 27.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 2 — 2.6 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 1.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: −6.0 pts in week 1 against +5.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.55× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Panthers27.6%
leaned — got home · +9.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 39.1%, 21.9 points below their season mean of 61.0% and 1.7 times their own 12.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
53 dressed · 9 never used
76Donovan SmithT · Every snap100%60 snaps
74Ali MarpetG · Every snap100%60 snaps
65Alex CappaG · Every snap100%60 snaps
3Jameis WinstonQB · Every snap100%60 snaps
66Ryan JensenC · Every snap100%60 snaps
69Demar DotsonOT · Every snap100%60 snaps
12Chris GodwinWR · Full-time95%57 snaps
80O.J. HowardTE · Full-time92%55 snaps
13Mike EvansWR · Full-time92%55 snaps
25Peyton BarberRB · Heavy rotation67%40 snaps
19Breshad PerrimanWR · Heavy rotation50%30 snaps
82Antony AuclairTE · Rotational40%24 snaps
84Cameron BrateTE · Rotational27%16 snaps
44Dare OgunbowaleRB · Situational23%14 snaps
27Ronald JonesRB · Situational12%7 snaps
17Justin WatsonWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Andrew AdamsFSZack BaileyGDemone HarrisLBBlaine GabbertQBRyan GriffinQBJosh WellsTJerald HawkinsTTanner HudsonTEScott MillerWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.McCaffrey−33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:28) Direct snap to 22-C.McCaffrey. 22-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at TB 2 for no gain (28-V.Hargreaves). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 1:28 · Panthers · 4th & 1 at TB 2 · gained nothing · -4.03 EP · −33.1% win probability
174 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 75 yards from the TB 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
40%
Yards
641
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.3888%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.3367%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.3936%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.0844%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.4460%
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 47
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Buccaneers 47
Buccaneers3Panthers0
Field goal6 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the Panthers 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Buccaneers3Panthers3
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 14
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 34
The period ended3 plays, from the Panthers 22 to the Panthers 27
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Panthers 31 to the Panthers 34
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 23
Buccaneers3Panthers6
Field goal5 plays, from the Buccaneers 42 to the Buccaneers 19
Punt8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 7 to the Panthers 20
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Buccaneers9Panthers6
Buccaneers10Panthers6
Touchdown6 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Panthers 20
Buccaneers10Panthers9
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 34
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 42
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 8 to the Buccaneers 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Buccaneers10Panthers12
Field goal6 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Buccaneers 21
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Buccaneers16Panthers12
Buccaneers17Panthers12
Touchdown9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Panthers 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 44
No good7 plays, from the Panthers 45 to the Panthers 21
4th quarter54 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Buccaneers 42
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Buccaneers17Panthers14
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Buccaneers 45
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays
Buccaneers20Panthers14
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 33 to the Panthers 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Buccaneers 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Buccaneers 2 to the Buccaneers 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Buccaneerscategory by categoryPanthers
Buccaneers3
Panthers0
