2019 Week 2 · Thu, Sep 12, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -6.5 upsetU 48 ✓Panthers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20–14. Biggest swing: Q1 8:40, TB +42% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 8:40TB — CAR CAR ball · 4th & 1CAR 74%

(8:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end to TB 47 for no gain (31-J.Whitehead). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:31.)

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 8:40TB +42% win prob(8:40) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton right end to TB 47 for no gain (31-J.Whitehead). Carolina challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:31.)
Q4 · 1:28TB +33% win prob(1:28) Direct snap to 22-C.McCaffrey. 22-C.McCaffrey left end pushed ob at TB 2 for no gain (28-V.Hargreaves). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 · 3:04TB +17% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to CAR 44 for no gain (98-A.Nelson; 54-L.David). FUMBLES (98-A.Nelson), RECOVERED by TB-93-N.Suh at CAR 45. 93-N.Suh to CAR 45 for no gain (72-T.Moton).
Q2 · 1:25CAR +16% win prob(1:25) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 12-C.Godwin for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Buccaneers	Panthers
Offensive plays	57	73
Total yards	291	352 (edge)
Yards per play	5.1 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.04 (edge)	-0.24
Success rate	42% (edge)	37%
Dropback rate	51%	74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.12 (edge)	-0.69
Third downs	2/11	3/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	15	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Panthers outgained Buccaneers 352–291 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TB	TB 25	6	18	1:59	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 10	9	43	4:30	Turnover on downs
3	TB	TB 47	6	32	2:55	Turnover on downs
4	CAR	CAR 25	9	61	2:44	Turnover on downs
5	TB	TB 25	5	14	2:12	Punt
6	CAR	CAR 22	7	14	3:08	Punt
7	TB	TB 22	4	6	2:37	Punt
8	CAR	TB 42	5	23	1:29	Turnover on downs
9	TB	TB 25	7	29	2:52	Punt
10	CAR	CAR 7	5	13	1:47	Punt
11	TB	TB 28	6	72	2:27	Touchdown
12	CAR	CAR 25	10	39	1:20	Turnover on downs
13	CAR	CAR 25	6	25	1:38	Punt
14	TB	TB 8	4	1	2:01	Punt
15	CAR	CAR 38	6	29	3:30	Turnover on downs
16	TB	TB 25	9	60	3:31	Touchdown
17	CAR	CAR 25	5	14	1:26	Fumble
18	TB	CAR 45	7	21	2:54	Turnover on downs
19	CAR	CAR 32	5	26	1:23	Punt
20	TB	TB 3	2	-2	0:16	Turnover on downs
21	CAR	CAR 46	5	4	1:42	Turnover on downs
22	TB	TB 46	4	-15	2:15	Punt
23	CAR	CAR 21	4	0	0:26	Punt
24	TB	TB 33	11	53	6:32	Turnover on downs
25	CAR	CAR 25	12	61	1:04	Turnover on downs
26	TB	TB 2	3	2	1:22	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Buccaneers gained 72 scrimmage yards over 6 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -6.5
Closing total: 48
TB moneyline: +240
CAR moneyline: -277

Panthers closed -6.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 34 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 85°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: TB 4 days · CAR 4 days
Coaches: Bruce Arians vs Ron Rivera

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.