2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium
Baltimore Ravens
28
Kansas City ChiefsWinner
33
Kansas City Chiefs 33–28. Biggest swing: Q1 11:38, BAL +9% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(11:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at BAL 47 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 11:38BAL +9% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at BAL 47 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon).
- Q1 · 3:38KC +8% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to BAL 42 for 21 yards (48-P.Onwuasor) [90-P.McPhee]. PENALTY on BAL-90-P.McPhee, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 42.
- Q1 · 9:28KC +8% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram right end to KC 37 for 21 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
- Q2 · 3:12KC +7% win prob(3:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Ravens | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 81 | 61 |
| Total yards | 452 | 505 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.6 | 8.3 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.21 | 0.29 (edge) |
| Success rate | 46% | 56% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 63% | 64% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.11 | 0.45 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.38 (edge) | -0.01 |
| Third downs | 5/13 | 5/9 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 | 8 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 32 (edge) | 23 |
| Sacks taken | 3 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.21.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC | KC 25 | 9 | 37 | 4:06 | Punt | |
| 2 | BAL | BAL 16 | 15 | 84 | 6:30 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | KC | KC 25 | 13 | 58 | 5:06 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | BAL | BAL 25 | 9 | 22 | 3:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | KC | BAL 47 | 6 | 47 | 2:43 | Touchdown | |
| 6 | BAL | BAL 25 | 8 | 28 | 3:25 | Punt | |
| 7 | KC | KC 4 | 4 | 96 | 1:27 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | BAL | BAL 25 | 9 | 24 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 9 | KC | KC 17 | 9 | 69 | 1:13 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | BAL | — | 1 | 0 | 0:05 | End of half | |
| 11 | BAL | BAL 25 | 11 | 75 | 4:25 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | KC | KC 25 | 6 | 34 | 2:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | BAL | BAL 43 | 4 | 5 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 14 | KC | KC 20 | 9 | 77 | 4:14 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | BAL | BAL 25 | 15 | 75 | 4:45 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | KC | KC 25 | 7 | 18 | 1:42 | Punt | |
| 17 | BAL | BAL 20 | 10 | 69 | 4:01 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | KC | KC 25 | 8 | 52 | 2:03 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | BAL | BAL 30 | 11 | 70 | 2:35 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | KC | KC 36 | 6 | 17 | 2:01 | End of game |
0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 96 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- KC -4.5
- Closing total
- 52
- BAL moneyline
- +191
- KC moneyline
- -216
Chiefs closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 52; the game landed 61 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Arrowhead Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · astroturf
- Kickoff weather
- —
- Referee
- John Hussey
- Rest
- BAL 7 days · KC 7 days
- Coaches
- John Harbaugh vs Andy Reid