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Baltimore Ravens 28 at Kansas City Chiefs 33. Final.
Chiefs -4.5 ✓O 52 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
Kansas City Chiefs 33, Ravens 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 11:38, 3rd and 15, on P.Mahomes — 8.9 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:38 · 3rd and 15
P.Mahomes
Ravens
(11:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at BAL 47 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon).
Chiefs closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Kansas City Chiefs 33–28. Biggest swing: Q1 11:38, Ravens +8.9% win probability on one snap.
8.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.IngramRavensQ1 9:28(9:28) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram right end to KC 37 for 21 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
8.0pts
T.KelceChiefsQ1 3:38(3:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to BAL 42 for 21 yards (48-P.Onwuasor) [90-P.McPhee]. PENALTY on BAL-90-P.McPhee, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 42.
8.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens owned this one and still lost it — +0.38 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.01 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Chiefs won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 5 of 9 on third down, against Ravens at 5 of 13 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Chiefs won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at +0.11 expected points per dropback.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 13 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Ravens180 of 191 plays carry both curves
(11:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at BAL 47 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon).
Swing −8.9 for ChiefsExpected points −1.74 for ChiefsThe model had Ravens 10 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:38BAL +9% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at BAL 47 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon).
1st · 3:38KC +8% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to BAL 42 for 21 yards (48-P.Onwuasor) [90-P.McPhee]. PENALTY on BAL-90-P.McPhee, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 42.
1st · 9:28KC +8% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram right end to KC 37 for 21 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
2nd · 3:12KC +7% win prob(3:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 5:08KC +7% win prob(5:08) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles left end to KC 2 for 7 yards (35-C.Ward; 53-A.Hitchens).
1st · 0:30KC +6% win prob(:30) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short right to 25-L.McCoy [99-M.Judon]. PENALTY on BAL-99-M.Judon, Horse Collar Tackle, 2 yards, enforced at BAL 4 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
L.McCoy's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 14:21 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:28M.Ingram·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+66–0
2nd14:21L.McCoy·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+76–7
4th12:27M.Ingram·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+619–30
4th6:43J.Tucker·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.Cox+322–30
4th4:39H.Butker·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder D.Colquitt · snap J.Winchester+322–33
4th2:10L.Jackson·9-yd TD run9-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+628–33
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryChiefs
Ravens2–5Chiefs
452Total yards505
5.6Yards per play8.3
46%Success rate56%
38%Third-down rate56%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays8
32First downs23
3Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Ravens: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.29Chiefs: +0.29 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Ravens: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.45Chiefs: +0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.38Ravens: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.01Chiefs: −0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 81 snaps at a 63% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 61 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 5, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.21.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+0.40× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Chiefs9.8%
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (−0.66× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 60.7%, 16.9 points above their season mean of 43.8% and 1.7 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass−9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(10:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Brown.
Q2 10:38 · Ravens · 4th & 2 at BAL 47 · gained nothing · -3.01 EP · −9.3% win probability
178 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 96 yards from the KC 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
44%
Yards
955
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54+0.3359%
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.4569%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.0854%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.1875%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2533%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 31
Ravens6Chiefs0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Chiefs 2
The period ended12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 2
2nd quarter55 plays
Ravens6Chiefs6
Ravens6Chiefs7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Ravens 3 to the Ravens 1
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 47
Ravens6Chiefs13
Ravens6Chiefs14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 47 to the Ravens 18
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 43
Ravens6Chiefs20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chiefs 4 to the Chiefs 17
Punt10 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 49
Ravens6Chiefs23
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 17 to the Ravens 24
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter38 plays
Ravens12Chiefs23
Ravens13Chiefs23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Chiefs 19
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 41
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Ravens 48
Ravens13Chiefs29
Ravens13Chiefs30
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Ravens 14
The period ended6 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 40
4th quarter58 plays
Ravens19Chiefs30
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chiefs 43 to the Chiefs 1
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 43
Ravens22Chiefs30
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Chiefs 16
Ravens22Chiefs33
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Ravens 16
Ravens28Chiefs33
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Chiefs 9
The period ended8 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Ravens 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -4.5
Closing total
52
Ravens moneyline
+191
Chiefs moneyline
-216
Chiefs closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 52; the game landed 61 — over by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 76°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 10 mph out of the south-west; 0.07 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Ravens 7 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Andy Reid
2nd · 10:38
BAL +6% win prob
(10:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short right to 15-M.Brown.
3rd · 8:01BAL +5% win prob(8:01) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes Aborted. 62-A.Reiter FUMBLES at BAL 43, recovered by KC-15-P.Mahomes at BAL 43. 15-P.Mahomes to BAL 42 for 1 yard (40-K.Young, 29-E.Thomas). FUMBLES (40-K.Young), recovered by KC-31-D.Williams at BAL 43. 31-D.Williams to BAL 43 for no gain (98-B.Williams).
