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2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · Arrowhead Stadium

Baltimore Ravens

28

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

33

KC -4.5 ✓O 52 ✓

Kansas City Chiefs 33–28. Biggest swing: Q1 11:38, BAL +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3KCBAL
Q1 · 11:38BAL KC KC ball · 3rd & 15KC 67%

(11:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at BAL 47 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q1 · 11:38BAL +9% win prob(11:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at BAL 47 for -11 yards (99-M.Judon).
  2. Q1 · 3:38KC +8% win prob(3:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 87-T.Kelce to BAL 42 for 21 yards (48-P.Onwuasor) [90-P.McPhee]. PENALTY on BAL-90-P.McPhee, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 42.
  3. Q1 · 9:28KC +8% win prob(9:28) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram right end to KC 37 for 21 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
  4. Q2 · 3:12KC +7% win prob(3:12) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricRavensChiefs
Offensive plays8161
Total yards452505 (edge)
Yards per play5.68.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play0.210.29 (edge)
Success rate46%56% (edge)
Dropback rate63%64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.110.45 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.38 (edge)-0.01
Third downs5/135/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)88
First downs gained on snaps32 (edge)23
Sacks taken31 (edge)
Turnovers00

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs 0.21.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1KCKC 259374:06Punt
2BALBAL 1615846:30Touchdown
3KCKC 2513585:06Touchdown
4BALBAL 259223:43Turnover on downs
5KCBAL 476472:43Touchdown
6BALBAL 258283:25Punt
7KCKC 44961:27Touchdown
8BALBAL 259241:42Punt
9KCKC 179691:13Turnover on downs
10BAL100:05End of half
11BALBAL 2511754:25Touchdown
12KCKC 256342:41Turnover on downs
13BALBAL 43451:33Punt
14KCKC 209774:14Touchdown
15BALBAL 2515754:45Touchdown
16KCKC 257181:42Punt
17BALBAL 2010694:01Turnover on downs
18KCKC 258522:03Turnover on downs
19BALBAL 3011702:35Touchdown
20KCKC 366172:01End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 96 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
KC -4.5
Closing total
52
BAL moneyline
+191
KC moneyline
-216

Chiefs closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 52; the game landed 61 — over by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
BAL 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Andy Reid