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2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · State Farm Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

38

Arizona Cardinals

20

ARI -2.5 upsetO 46 ✓Dome

Carolina Panthers 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:05, ARI +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3ARICAR
Q3 · 2:05CAR ARI CAR ball · 2nd & 2CAR 55%

(2:05) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q3 · 2:05ARI +21% win prob(2:05) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q2 · 0:58ARI +21% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep middle to 12-D.Moore for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  3. Q1 · 10:55CAR +12% win prob(10:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at ARI 25 for -10 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 26. 55-C.Jones to ARI 26 for no gain (7-K.Allen).
  4. Q3 · 8:56ARI +11% win prob(8:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep left to 13-J.Wright to ARI 6 for 33 yards (32-B.Baker). Penalty on ARI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricPanthersCardinals
Offensive plays5773
Total yards415 (edge)248
Yards per play7.3 (edge)3.4
Expected points added / play0.27 (edge)-0.09
Success rate47% (edge)45%
Dropback rate51%74%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.45 (edge)-0.24
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.090.35 (edge)
Third downs4/109/17 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)55
First downs gained on snaps1819 (edge)
Sacks taken2 (edge)8
Turnovers1 (edge)2

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.09.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1CARCAR 259444:13Fumble
2ARIARI 2615746:17Touchdown
3CARCAR 2513605:21Touchdown
4ARIARI 259243:30Punt
5CARCAR 116283:05Punt
6ARIARI 3115385:58Turnover on downs
7CARCAR 255750:47Touchdown
8ARIARI 25550:30Punt
9CARCAR 35330:19End of half
10ARIARI 2511703:40Touchdown
11CARCAR 259753:36Touchdown
12ARIARI 2113494:57Turnover on downs
13CARCAR 164840:54Touchdown
14ARIARI 25310:39Interception
15CARARI 227192:42Touchdown
16ARIARI 25752:21Punt
17CARCAR 175102:50Punt
18ARIARI 10401:20Punt
19CARCAR 46431:38Punt
20ARIARI 9200:38Interception
21CARARI 22490:18Turnover on downs
22ARIARI 255-181:54Punt
23CARARI 47452:33End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Closing total
46
CAR moneyline
+118
ARI moneyline
-131

Cardinals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 58 — over by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
CAR 10 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Kliff Kingsbury