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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 38 at Arizona Cardinals 20. Final.
Cardinals -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
Carolina Panthers 38, Cardinals 20 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 2:05, 2nd and 2, on C.McCaffrey — 20.9 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:05 · 2nd and 2
C.McCaffrey
Panthers
(2:05) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.9
O 46 ✓
Dome
Cardinals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:05, Panthers +20.9% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.AllenCardinalsQ1 10:55(10:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at ARI 25 for -10 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 26. 55-C.Jones to ARI 26 for no gain (7-K.Allen).
12.4pts
D.MoorePanthersQ2 0:58(:58) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep middle to 12-D.Moore for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.7pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — +0.45 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.24 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Panthers won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.09 expected points per snap.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — +0.35 expected points per carry, against Panthers at +0.09 expected points per carry.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 17 on third down, against Panthers at 4 of 10 on third down.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Panthers170 of 179 plays carry both curves
(2:05) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.9 for CardinalsExpected points −6.11 for CardinalsModel and market agree here.play 124
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:05ARI +21% win prob(2:05) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:58ARI +21% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep middle to 12-D.Moore for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:55CAR +12% win prob(10:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at ARI 25 for -10 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 26. 55-C.Jones to ARI 26 for no gain (7-K.Allen).
3rd · 8:56ARI +11% win prob(8:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep left to 13-J.Wright to ARI 6 for 33 yards (32-B.Baker). Penalty on ARI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
2nd · 14:15ARI +11% win prob(14:15) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass short right to 10-C.Samuel for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [56-T.Suggs].
3rd · 12:03ARI +10% win prob(12:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end pushed ob at CAR 3 for 17 yards (33-T.Boston).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
G.Olsen's 3-yard touchdown catch with 7:47 left in the 3rd put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
4th4:31J.Slye·36-yd field goal36-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+338–20
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryCardinals
Panthers6–2Cardinals
415Total yards248
7.3Yards per play3.4
47%Success rate45%
40%Third-down rate53%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays5
18First downs19
2Sacks taken8
1Turnovers2
The read
Panthers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.45 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Panthers: +0.27 expected points added per play
−0.09Cardinals: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.45Panthers: +0.45 expected points added per play
−0.24Cardinals: −0.24 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Panthers: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.35Cardinals: +0.35 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 57 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 73 at 74%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 7, Cardinals 3.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's early-down pass rate, 74.5%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.0 points clear of the next team along.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.3 points.
CAR's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.4% in week 2 against 44.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
CAR's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.0 pts in week 2 against −3.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.12× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Cardinals13.8%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 44.7%, 16.3 points below their season mean of 61.0% and 1.4 times their own 11.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.McCaffrey up+25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:05) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:05 · Panthers · 2nd & 2 at CAR 24 · gained 76 · +6.11 EP · +24.6% win probability
168 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 84 yards from the CAR 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
44%
Yards
661
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR42-0.2479%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.1055%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.0857%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.6160%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8+0.5213%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.4257%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.3757%
Cardinals0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Cardinals 15
Panthers0Cardinals6
Panthers0Cardinals7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Panthers 1
The period ended10 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Cardinals 19
2nd quarter51 plays
Panthers6Cardinals7
Panthers7Cardinals7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Cardinals 7 to the Cardinals 5
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Panthers 45
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 11 to the Panthers 39
Panthers7Cardinals10
Field goal17 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Panthers 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Panthers13Cardinals10
Panthers14Cardinals10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 48
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Panthers14Cardinals16
Panthers14Cardinals17
Touchdown12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Panthers 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Panthers20Cardinals17
Panthers21Cardinals17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Cardinals 3
Panthers21Cardinals20
Field goal13 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Panthers 30
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Panthers27Cardinals20
Panthers28Cardinals20
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 16 to the Panthers 24
Intercepted3 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 26
The period ended3 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 17
4th quarter48 plays
Panthers34Cardinals20
Panthers35Cardinals20
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cardinals 17 to the Cardinals 3
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 35
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 17 to the Panthers 37
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 10 to the Cardinals 13
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Panthers 49
Intercepted3 plays
Panthers38Cardinals20
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 22 to the Cardinals 18
Punt5 plays
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Cardinals 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -2.5
Closing total
46
Panthers moneyline
+118
Cardinals moneyline
-131
Cardinals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 58 — over by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Panthers 10 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Kliff Kingsbury
3rd · 1:26
CAR +10% win prob
(1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left intended for 11-L.Fitzgerald INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at ARI 47. 26-D.Jackson pushed ob at ARI 22 for 25 yards (1-K.Murray).
3rd · 14:17ARI +9% win prob(14:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald to CAR 42 for 23 yards (25-E.Reid, 33-T.Boston).
