2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · State Farm Stadium
Carolina PanthersWinner
38
Arizona Cardinals
20
Carolina Panthers 38–20 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 2:05, ARI +21% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(2:05) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q3 · 2:05ARI +21% win prob(2:05) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 0:58ARI +21% win prob(:58) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep middle to 12-D.Moore for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 10:55CAR +12% win prob(10:55) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at ARI 25 for -10 yards (55-C.Jones). FUMBLES (55-C.Jones) [55-C.Jones], RECOVERED by ARI-55-C.Jones at ARI 26. 55-C.Jones to ARI 26 for no gain (7-K.Allen).
- Q3 · 8:56ARI +11% win prob(8:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep left to 13-J.Wright to ARI 6 for 33 yards (32-B.Baker). Penalty on ARI, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, declined.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Panthers | Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 57 | 73 |
| Total yards | 415 (edge) | 248 |
| Yards per play | 7.3 (edge) | 3.4 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.27 (edge) | -0.09 |
| Success rate | 47% (edge) | 45% |
| Dropback rate | 51% | 74% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.45 (edge) | -0.24 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.09 | 0.35 (edge) |
| Third downs | 4/10 | 9/17 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 18 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 2 (edge) | 8 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 2 |
Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs -0.09.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAR | CAR 25 | 9 | 44 | 4:13 | Fumble | |
| 2 | ARI | ARI 26 | 15 | 74 | 6:17 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | CAR | CAR 25 | 13 | 60 | 5:21 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | ARI | ARI 25 | 9 | 24 | 3:30 | Punt | |
| 5 | CAR | CAR 11 | 6 | 28 | 3:05 | Punt | |
| 6 | ARI | ARI 31 | 15 | 38 | 5:58 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | CAR | CAR 25 | 5 | 75 | 0:47 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | ARI | ARI 25 | 5 | 5 | 0:30 | Punt | |
| 9 | CAR | CAR 35 | 3 | 3 | 0:19 | End of half | |
| 10 | ARI | ARI 25 | 11 | 70 | 3:40 | Touchdown | |
| 11 | CAR | CAR 25 | 9 | 75 | 3:36 | Touchdown | |
| 12 | ARI | ARI 21 | 13 | 49 | 4:57 | Turnover on downs | |
| 13 | CAR | CAR 16 | 4 | 84 | 0:54 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | ARI | ARI 25 | 3 | 1 | 0:39 | Interception | |
| 15 | CAR | ARI 22 | 7 | 19 | 2:42 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | ARI | ARI 25 | 7 | 5 | 2:21 | Punt | |
| 17 | CAR | CAR 17 | 5 | 10 | 2:50 | Punt | |
| 18 | ARI | ARI 10 | 4 | 0 | 1:20 | Punt | |
| 19 | CAR | CAR 46 | 4 | 3 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 20 | ARI | ARI 9 | 2 | 0 | 0:38 | Interception | |
| 21 | CAR | ARI 22 | 4 | 9 | 0:18 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | ARI | ARI 25 | 5 | -18 | 1:54 | Punt | |
| 23 | CAR | ARI 47 | 4 | 5 | 2:33 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 84 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- ARI -2.5
- Closing total
- 46
- CAR moneyline
- +118
- ARI moneyline
- -131
Cardinals closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 58 — over by 12.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- State Farm Stadium
- Roof / surface
- closed · grass
- Kickoff weather
- Indoors — weather neutralized
- Referee
- Craig Wrolstad
- Rest
- CAR 10 days · ARI 7 days
- Coaches
- Ron Rivera vs Kliff Kingsbury