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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Chicago Bears 31 at Washington Commanders 15. Final.
Bears -5 ✓O 41 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
Chicago Bears 31, Commanders 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:53, 3rd and 9, on H.Clinton-Dix — 13.8 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:53 · 3rd and 9
H.Clinton-Dix
Bears
(9:53) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left intended for 18-T.Quinn INTERCEPTED by 21-H.Clinton-Dix at WAS 37. 21-H.Clinton-Dix for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bears closed -5 and covered, winning by 16.
Chicago Bears 31–15. Biggest swing: Q1 9:53, Bears +13.8% win probability on one snap.
13.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.TrubiskyCommandersQ1 11:06(11:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at 50 for -14 yards (90-M.Sweat). Penalty on CHI-75-K.Long, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
11.5pts
D.HopkinsBearsQ2 13:26(13:26) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
5.0pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against Commanders at 6 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Bears won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Commanders at 3 of 9 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.27 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.26 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Commandershigher on Bears168 of 178 plays carry both curves
(9:53) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left intended for 18-T.Quinn INTERCEPTED by 21-H.Clinton-Dix at WAS 37. 21-H.Clinton-Dix for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.8 for CommandersExpected points −6.55 for CommandersThe model had Commanders 24 points higher than the market did.play 17
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:53CHI +14% win prob(9:53) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left intended for 18-T.Quinn INTERCEPTED by 21-H.Clinton-Dix at WAS 37. 21-H.Clinton-Dix for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 11:06CHI +11% win prob(11:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at 50 for -14 yards (90-M.Sweat). Penalty on CHI-75-K.Long, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
2nd · 13:26CHI +5% win prob(13:26) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
1st · 10:48WAS +4% win prob(10:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
2nd · 14:10CHI +4% win prob(14:10) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum sacked at CHI 25 for -11 yards (59-D.Trevathan).
2nd · 6:34CHI +4% win prob(6:34) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum sacked at WAS 12 for -8 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-96-A.Hicks at WAS 11.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
H.Clinton-Dix's 37-yard touchdown with 9:53 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th1:54E.Pineiro·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+331–15
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryCommanders
Bears3–5Commanders
298Total yards356
5.1Yards per play5.2
45%Success rate46%
62%Third-down rate33%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays4
17First downs24
3Sacks taken4
1Turnovers6
The read
Commanders ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Bears, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Bears: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.27Commanders: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Bears: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.21Commanders: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.14Bears: −0.14 expected points added per play
−0.43Commanders: −0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 58 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Commanders’s 69 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Bears 5, Commanders 5.
NoteCommanders outgained Bears 356-298 but lost the turnover battle 6-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.6 pts in week 2 against +7.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 21 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.7 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.99× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Commanders11.8%
inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 100.0%, 65.7 points above their season mean of 34.3% and 1.6 times their own 40.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Commanders attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Commanders→
Q1Q2Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Keenum pass−18% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:53) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass deep left intended for 18-T.Quinn INTERCEPTED by 21-H.Clinton-Dix at WAS 37. 21-H.Clinton-Dix for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 9:53 · Commanders · 3rd & 9 at WAS 21 · gained nothing · -6.55 EP · −18.3% win probability
166 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 97 yards from the WAS 3 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; WAS attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.10
Success rate
44%
Yards
654
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.0671%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.4769%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-1.1762%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.5490%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.7043%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt12 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Commanders 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Bears6Commanders0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 20 to the Commanders 21
Bears7Commanders0
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 38
Punt6 plays, from the Bears 10 to the Bears 22
The period ended11 plays, from the Commanders 42 to the Bears 15
2nd quarter1 plays
1st quarter1 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
No good3 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Bears 14
Bears13Commanders0
Bears14Commanders0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bears 33 to the Commanders 3
Fumble lost3 plays
Bears20Commanders0
Bears21Commanders0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Commanders 11 to the Commanders 1
Intercepted3 plays, from the Commanders 47 to the Bears 49
Bears27Commanders0
Bears28Commanders0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Bears 37 to the Commanders 29
Bears28Commanders3
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 27 to the Bears 17
3rd quarter39 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Bears 39
No good4 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Commanders 23
Bears28Commanders9
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Bears 15
Intercepted10 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Commanders 6
The period ended10 plays, from the Commanders 3 to the Bears 30
4th quarter44 plays
Bears28Commanders15
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 19 to the Bears 2
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 26
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Commanders 35 to the Bears 16
Bears31Commanders15
Field goal12 plays, from the Bears 22 to the Commanders 20
The period ended10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Bears 27
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -5
Closing total
41
Bears moneyline
-232
Commanders moneyline
+204
Bears closed -5 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 41; the game landed 46 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FedExField
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 84°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 7 mph out of the west; 0.02 in of precipitation; partly cloudy.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Bears 8 days · Commanders 8 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Jay Gruden
1st · 1:32
WAS +4% win prob
(1:32) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum sacked at CHI 38 for -8 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-59-D.Trevathan at CHI 37. PENALTY on CHI-20-P.Amukamara, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at CHI 30 - No Play.
1st · 5:44CHI +4% win prob(5:44) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 2 for -9 yards (98-M.Ioannidis).
