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Buffalo Bills 21, Bengals 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:02, 1st and 15, on A.Tate — 86.6 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:02 · 1st and 15
A.Tate
Bengals
(:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Tate to BUF 21 for 32 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at BUF 20.
Bills closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Buffalo Bills 21–17. Biggest swing: Q2 0:02, Bengals +86.6% win probability on one snap.
86.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.KnoxBillsQ4 4:25(4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 88-D.Knox to CIN 22 for 49 yards (22-W.Jackson III). Caught near sideline at BUF 44.
19.9pts
T.WhiteBillsQ4 0:20(:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 19-A.Tate INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 10. 27-T.White to BUF 10 for no gain. Pass tipped by receiver and M.Hyde at BUF 16 before INT. PENALTY on CIN-68-B.Hart, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 10.
24.9pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Bills won this one — 2 giveaways, against Bengals at 5 giveaways.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bills won this one — +0.04 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.26 expected points per dropback.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Bengals169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Tate to BUF 21 for 32 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at BUF 20.
Swing −86.6 for BillsExpected points +1.00 for BillsThe model had Bengals 6 points higher than the market did.play 92
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:02BUF +87% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Tate to BUF 21 for 32 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at BUF 20.
4th · 0:20CIN +25% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 19-A.Tate INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 10. 27-T.White to BUF 10 for no gain. Pass tipped by receiver and M.Hyde at BUF 16 before INT. PENALTY on CIN-68-B.Hart, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 10.
4th · 4:25BUF +20% win prob(4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 88-D.Knox to CIN 22 for 49 yards (22-W.Jackson III). Caught near sideline at BUF 44.
4th · 7:03BUF +15% win prob(7:03) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at BUF 27 for 33 yards (21-J.Poyer). Screen pass, caught at CIN 36.
4th · 8:28BUF +12% win prob(8:28) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 83-T.Boyd to CIN 42 for 26 yards (21-J.Poyer). Caught at CIN 35, crossing from right.
1st · 7:19CIN +12% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
F.Gore's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 1:54 left in the 4th put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th4:58R.Bullock·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+317–14
4th1:54F.Gore·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+717–21
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryBills
Bengals0–7Bills
306Total yards419
5.5Yards per play5.8
36%Success rate49%
27%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
8Explosive plays8
17First downs24
2Sacks taken1
5Turnovers2
The read
Bills ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.19Bengals: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.02Bills: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.26Bengals: −0.26 expected points added per play
+0.04Bills: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Bengals: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.10Bills: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 56 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Bills’s 72 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 2, Bills 4.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.19.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +4.2 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (+0.44× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Bills8.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.8 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.08× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 8.1%, 6.8 points below their season mean of 15.0% and 1.1 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass+76% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Tate to BUF 21 for 32 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at BUF 20.
Q2 0:02 · Bengals · 1st & 15 at CIN 47 · gained 32 · -1.00 EP · +76.0% win probability
167 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 82 yards from the CIN 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
-0.11
Success rate
37%
Yards
724
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52-0.2569%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.1460%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17-0.2835%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.6160%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 27
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 37 to the Bengals 42
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.6 seconds
Punt11 plays, from the Bills 17 to the Bengals 29
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Bengals0Bills6
Bengals0Bills8
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bengals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 28
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 42
2nd quarter49 plays
Bengals0Bills11
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Bengals 16
Fumble lost2 plays
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Bengals 15
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 11 to the Bengals 14
Bengals0Bills14
Field goal6 plays, from the Bengals 44 to the Bengals 27
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 49
No good9 plays, from the Bills 15 to the Bengals 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
3rd quarter1 plays
2nd quarter1 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 30 to the Bengals 45
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 8 to the Bills 35
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bengals 36 to the Bengals 47
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Bills 43
Bengals6Bills14
Bengals7Bills14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bills 1
Punt8 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bengals 40
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 18 to the Bills 32
4th quarter48 plays
Bengals13Bills14
Bengals14Bills14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Bills 1
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Bills 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Bengals17Bills14
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 15 to the Bills 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Bengals17Bills20
Bengals17Bills21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 22 to the Bengals 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bills 28
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -5.5
Closing total
43.5
Bengals moneyline
+220
Bills moneyline
-252
Bills closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 38 — under by 5.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Warm, 82°F at kickoff; breezy at 15 mph out of the south-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Clete Blakeman
Rest
Bengals 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Zac Taylor vs Sean McDermott
(7:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right [96-C.Dunlap]. Thrown away, under pressure. PENALTY on BUF-17-J.Allen, Intentional Grounding, 22 yards, enforced at CIN 30.
4th · 1:54BUF +11% win prob(1:54) 20-F.Gore left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:45BUF +11% win prob(:45) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at BUF 33 for 13 yards (29-K.Johnson). Caught at BUF 40, crossing from middle.
