2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · New Era Field

Cincinnati Bengals

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -5.5 no coverU 43.5 ✓Bills closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Buffalo Bills 21–17. Biggest swing: Q2 0:02, BUF +87% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:02CIN — BUF CIN ball · 1st & 15BUF 93%

(:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Tate to BUF 21 for 32 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at BUF 20.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:02BUF +87% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Tate to BUF 21 for 32 yards (27-T.White). FUMBLES (27-T.White), RECOVERED by BUF-21-J.Poyer at BUF 20.
Q4 · 0:20CIN +25% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right intended for 19-A.Tate INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 10. 27-T.White to BUF 10 for no gain. Pass tipped by receiver and M.Hyde at BUF 16 before INT. PENALTY on CIN-68-B.Hart, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 10.
Q4 · 4:25BUF +20% win prob(4:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 88-D.Knox to CIN 22 for 49 yards (22-W.Jackson III). Caught near sideline at BUF 44.
Q4 · 7:03BUF +15% win prob(7:03) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 28-J.Mixon pushed ob at BUF 27 for 33 yards (21-J.Poyer). Screen pass, caught at CIN 36.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Bills
Offensive plays	56	72
Total yards	306	419 (edge)
Yards per play	5.5	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.19	-0.02 (edge)
Success rate	36%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.26	0.04 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.10
Third downs	3/11	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	17	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	5	2 (edge)

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.19.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	5	0	1:40	Punt
2	CIN	CIN 37	4	5	0:54	Punt
3	BUF	BUF 17	10	58	5:23	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 19	4	11	0:55	Punt
5	BUF	BUF 27	8	62	3:05	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 25	5	2	1:57	Defensive touchdown
7	BUF	BUF 38	10	61	5:37	Turnover on downs
8	CIN	CIN 25	2	7	0:09	Fumble
9	BUF	CIN 38	7	25	2:57	Fumble
10	CIN	CIN 11	4	3	2:18	Punt
11	BUF	CIN 44	6	17	2:54	Turnover on downs
12	CIN	CIN 25	7	16	0:48	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 15	7	36	1:21	Turnover on downs
14	CIN	BUF 48	1	32	0:02	Fumble
15	CIN	CIN 30	6	13	2:10	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 8	6	24	3:31	Punt
17	CIN	CIN 36	3	11	1:08	Interception
18	BUF	BUF 40	3	3	0:59	Interception
19	CIN	BUF 22	4	22	1:22	Touchdown
20	BUF	BUF 25	8	35	2:50	Punt
21	CIN	CIN 18	12	82	5:33	Touchdown
22	BUF	BUF 25	7	20	3:21	Punt
23	CIN	CIN 15	9	60	4:12	Turnover on downs
24	BUF	BUF 22	9	78	3:04	Touchdown
25	CIN	CIN 25	10	42	1:38	Interception
26	BUF	BUF 25	1	0	0:12	End of game

0 of 26 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 82 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -5.5
Closing total: 43.5
CIN moneyline: +220
BUF moneyline: -252

Bills closed -5.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 38 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 83°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: CIN 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Sean McDermott