2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · Lambeau Field
Denver Broncos
16
Green Bay PackersWinner
27
Green Bay Packers 27–16. Biggest swing: Q2 2:27, DEN +18% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(2:27) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 11 for -7 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at DEN 5, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at DEN 5. 52-R.Gary to DEN 5 for no gain (66-D.Risner).
Highest-leverage plays
- Q2 · 2:27DEN +18% win prob(2:27) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 11 for -7 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at DEN 5, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at DEN 5. 52-R.Gary to DEN 5 for no gain (66-D.Risner).
- Q1 · 12:22GB +9% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-58-V.Miller, Defensive Offside, declined.
- Q3 · 13:50DEN +7% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 87-N.Fant to DEN 37 for 4 yards (23-J.Alexander). FUMBLES (23-J.Alexander), RECOVERED by GB-23-J.Alexander at DEN 37. 23-J.Alexander to DEN 14 for 23 yards (30-P.Lindsay). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 87-N.Fant to DEN 37 for 4 yards (23-J.Alexander). FUMBLES (23-J.Alexander), RECOVERED by GB-23-J.Alexander at DEN 37. 23-J.Alexander to DEN 37 for no gain (87-N.Fant).
- Q2 · 12:50GB +7% win prob(12:50) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 28 for 22 yards (25-C.Harris). Denver challenged the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Broncos | Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 72 | 51 |
| Total yards | 310 | 313 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 4.3 | 6.1 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.11 | 0.16 (edge) |
| Success rate | 44% (edge) | 41% |
| Dropback rate | 49% | 57% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.31 | 0.22 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.08 | 0.09 (edge) |
| Third downs | 9/15 (edge) | 2/9 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 5 | 6 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 15 |
| Sacks taken | 6 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 3 | 0 (edge) |
Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GB | GB 25 | 7 | 75 | 2:44 | Touchdown | |
| 2 | DEN | GB 43 | 5 | -4 | 2:05 | Punt | |
| 3 | GB | GB 20 | 9 | 42 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 4 | DEN | DEN 23 | 16 | 77 | 8:35 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | GB | GB 25 | 8 | 41 | 2:59 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | DEN | DEN 25 | 16 | 73 | 7:29 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | GB | GB 25 | 4 | 4 | 1:23 | Punt | |
| 8 | GB | DEN 18 | 2 | -10 | 0:10 | Fumble | |
| 9 | GB | DEN 5 | 3 | 5 | 0:21 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 6 | 0:53 | Punt | |
| 11 | GB | GB 10 | 2 | 6 | 1:03 | End of half | |
| 12 | DEN | DEN 25 | 4 | 12 | 1:16 | Fumble | |
| 13 | GB | DEN 37 | 5 | 37 | 1:35 | Touchdown | |
| 14 | DEN | DEN 25 | 14 | 75 | 6:10 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | GB | GB 25 | 5 | 17 | 1:36 | Punt | |
| 16 | DEN | DEN 3 | 5 | 59 | 2:40 | Interception | |
| 17 | GB | GB 28 | 6 | 11 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 18 | DEN | DEN 25 | 4 | 7 | 1:38 | Punt | |
| 19 | GB | GB 26 | 11 | 56 | 7:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | DEN | DEN 25 | 11 | 18 | 3:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | GB | DEN 43 | 5 | 16 | 1:11 | Turnover on downs | |
| 22 | DEN | DEN 35 | 4 | 0 | 1:05 | End of game |
0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 77 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- GB -7
- Closing total
- 42
- DEN moneyline
- +278
- GB moneyline
- -327
Packers closed -7 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 42; the game landed 43 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Lambeau Field
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 69°F, wind 7 mph
- Referee
- Bradley Rogers
- Rest
- DEN 7 days · GB 7 days
- Coaches
- Vic Fangio vs Matt LaFleur