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2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · Lambeau Field

Denver Broncos

16

Green Bay PackersWinner

27

GB -7 ✓O 42 ✓

Green Bay Packers 27–16. Biggest swing: Q2 2:27, DEN +18% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3GBDEN
Q2 · 2:27DEN GB DEN ball · 1st & 10GB 63%

(2:27) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 11 for -7 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at DEN 5, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at DEN 5. 52-R.Gary to DEN 5 for no gain (66-D.Risner).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 2:27DEN +18% win prob(2:27) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 11 for -7 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at DEN 5, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at DEN 5. 52-R.Gary to DEN 5 for no gain (66-D.Risner).
  2. Q1 · 12:22GB +9% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-58-V.Miller, Defensive Offside, declined.
  3. Q3 · 13:50DEN +7% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 87-N.Fant to DEN 37 for 4 yards (23-J.Alexander). FUMBLES (23-J.Alexander), RECOVERED by GB-23-J.Alexander at DEN 37. 23-J.Alexander to DEN 14 for 23 yards (30-P.Lindsay). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 87-N.Fant to DEN 37 for 4 yards (23-J.Alexander). FUMBLES (23-J.Alexander), RECOVERED by GB-23-J.Alexander at DEN 37. 23-J.Alexander to DEN 37 for no gain (87-N.Fant).
  4. Q2 · 12:50GB +7% win prob(12:50) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 28 for 22 yards (25-C.Harris). Denver challenged the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBroncosPackers
Offensive plays7251
Total yards310313 (edge)
Yards per play4.36.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play-0.110.16 (edge)
Success rate44% (edge)41%
Dropback rate49%57%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)-0.310.22 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.080.09 (edge)
Third downs9/15 (edge)2/9
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)56 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps22 (edge)15
Sacks taken60 (edge)
Turnovers30 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.11.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1GBGB 257752:44Touchdown
2DENGB 435-42:05Punt
3GBGB 209422:18Punt
4DENDEN 2316778:35Touchdown
5GBGB 258412:59Turnover on downs
6DENDEN 2516737:29Turnover on downs
7GBGB 25441:23Punt
8GBDEN 182-100:10Fumble
9GBDEN 5350:21Touchdown
10DENDEN 25560:53Punt
11GBGB 10261:03End of half
12DENDEN 254121:16Fumble
13GBDEN 375371:35Touchdown
14DENDEN 2514756:10Touchdown
15GBGB 255171:36Punt
16DENDEN 35592:40Interception
17GBGB 286111:35Punt
18DENDEN 25471:38Punt
19GBGB 2611567:41Turnover on downs
20DENDEN 2511183:33Turnover on downs
21GBDEN 435161:11Turnover on downs
22DENDEN 35401:05End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 77 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
GB -7
Closing total
42
DEN moneyline
+278
GB moneyline
-327

Packers closed -7 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 42; the game landed 43 — over by 1.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
69°F, wind 7 mph
Referee
Bradley Rogers
Rest
DEN 7 days · GB 7 days
Coaches
Vic Fangio vs Matt LaFleur