For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 27, Broncos 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 2:27, 1st and 10, on J.Flacco — 17.6 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 2:27 · 1st and 10
J.Flacco
Packers
(2:27) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 11 for -7 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at DEN 5, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at DEN 5. 52-R.Gary to DEN 5 for no gain (66-D.Risner).
Packers closed -7 and covered, winning by 11.
Green Bay Packers 27–16. Biggest swing: Q2 2:27, Packers +17.6% win probability on one snap.
17.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.Valdes-ScantlingPackersQ1 12:22(12:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-58-V.Miller, Defensive Offside, declined.
9.2pts
N.FantPackersQ3 13:50(13:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 87-N.Fant to DEN 37 for 4 yards (23-J.Alexander). FUMBLES (23-J.Alexander), RECOVERED by GB-23-J.Alexander at DEN 37. 23-J.Alexander to DEN 14 for 23 yards (30-P.Lindsay). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 87-N.Fant to DEN 37 for 4 yards (23-J.Alexander). FUMBLES (23-J.Alexander), RECOVERED by GB-23-J.Alexander at DEN 37. 23-J.Alexander to DEN 37 for no gain (87-N.Fant).
6.8pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 3 giveaways.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 15 on third down, against Packers at 2 of 9 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.22 expected points per dropback, against Broncos at -0.31 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Broncos158 of 169 plays carry both curves
(2:27) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 11 for -7 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at DEN 5, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at DEN 5. 52-R.Gary to DEN 5 for no gain (66-D.Risner).
Swing +17.6 for PackersExpected points +6.11 for PackersThe model had Broncos 11 points higher than the market did.play 73
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 2:27DEN +18% win prob(2:27) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 11 for -7 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at DEN 5, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at DEN 5. 52-R.Gary to DEN 5 for no gain (66-D.Risner).
1st · 12:22GB +9% win prob(12:22) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-58-V.Miller, Defensive Offside, declined.
3rd · 13:50DEN +7% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 87-N.Fant to DEN 37 for 4 yards (23-J.Alexander). FUMBLES (23-J.Alexander), RECOVERED by GB-23-J.Alexander at DEN 37. 23-J.Alexander to DEN 14 for 23 yards (30-P.Lindsay). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 87-N.Fant to DEN 37 for 4 yards (23-J.Alexander). FUMBLES (23-J.Alexander), RECOVERED by GB-23-J.Alexander at DEN 37. 23-J.Alexander to DEN 37 for no gain (87-N.Fant).
2nd · 12:50GB +7% win prob(12:50) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams to DEN 28 for 22 yards (25-C.Harris). Denver challenged the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
3rd · 6:05GB +6% win prob(6:05) 30-P.Lindsay left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Jones's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 2:00 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
3rd6:05P.Lindsay·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit left upright+616–24
4th5:53M.Crosby·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+316–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryPackers
Broncos3–5Packers
310Total yards313
4.3Yards per play6.1
44%Success rate41%
60%Third-down rate22%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
5Explosive plays6
22First downs15
6Sacks taken0
3Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Broncos: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.16Packers: +0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.31Broncos: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.22Packers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.08Broncos: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.09Packers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 72 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Packers’s 51 at 57%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 3, Packers 3.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
DEN's pass rate over expected, −13.9 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.3 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 2.
72 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's sack or hit rate, 3.4%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 2.2 points clear of the next team along.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 61.0% in week 2 against 41.8% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −9.5 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−1.18× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Packers20.0%
inside their normal wobble · +5.4 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.85× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -13.9 pts, 11.7 points below their season mean of -2.3 pts and 2.0 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Flacco sacked−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:27) 5-J.Flacco sacked at DEN 11 for -7 yards (91-P.Smith). FUMBLES (91-P.Smith) [91-P.Smith], touched at DEN 5, RECOVERED by GB-52-R.Gary at DEN 5. 52-R.Gary to DEN 5 for no gain (66-D.Risner).
Q2 2:27 · Broncos · 1st & 10 at DEN 18 · lost 13 · -6.11 EP · −17.3% win probability
156 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 77 yards from the DEN 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
38%
Yards
622
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.2453%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.1552%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20+0.1575%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.2547%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0346%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.2314%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Broncos0Packers6
Broncos0Packers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Broncos 40
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 43 to the Packers 41
Punt11 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Broncos 40
The period ended14 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Packers 14
2nd quarter48 plays
Broncos6Packers7
Broncos7Packers7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 4 to the Packers 1
Broncos7Packers10
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Broncos 22
Broncos10Packers10
Field goal17 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Packers 2
Punt3 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Packers 32
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost1 play
Broncos10Packers16
Broncos10Packers17
Touchdown3 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 31
The period ended4 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Packers 16
3rd quarter43 plays
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 33
Broncos10Packers23
Broncos10Packers24
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Broncos 1
Broncos16Packers24
Touchdown15 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Packers 1
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 32
Intercepted5 plays, from the Broncos 3 to the Packers 38
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Packers 39
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter40 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Broncos 30 to the Broncos 32
Broncos16Packers27
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 26 to the Broncos 23
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Packers 44
No good9 plays, from the Broncos 43 to the Broncos 27
The period ended5 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Broncos 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Broncoscategory by categoryPackers
Broncos0
Packers6
