For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
LionsDetroit27
BY 3final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia24
Detroit Lions 27 at Philadelphia Eagles 24. Final.
Eagles -4 upsetO 45 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
Detroit Lions 27, Eagles 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:53, 4th and 10, on M.Prater — 22.4 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:53 · 4th and 10
M.Prater
Eagles
(1:53) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-M.Jenkins), Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Douglas at PHI 42. 32-R.Douglas to DET 40 for 18 yards (77-F.Ragnow). PENALTY on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.
Eagles closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:53, Eagles +22.4% win probability on one snap.
22.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
N.AgholorLionsQ2 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor to DET 40 for 5 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DET-23-D.Slay at DET 40. 23-D.Slay pushed ob at PHI 22 for 38 yards (11-C.Wentz). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
22.0pts
C.WentzLionsQ4 0:49(:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside.
17.1pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Lions won this one — no giveaways, against Eagles at 2 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Lions at 5 chunk plays.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Eagles owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Lions at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Lions won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Eagles at -0.15 expected points per snap.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Lions172 of 180 plays carry both curves
(1:53) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-M.Jenkins), Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Douglas at PHI 42. 32-R.Douglas to DET 40 for 18 yards (77-F.Ragnow). PENALTY on PHI-27-M.Jen
Swing +22.4 for EaglesExpected points +4.10 for EaglesThe model had Lions 6 points higher than the market did.play 171
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:53DET +22% win prob(1:53) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-M.Jenkins), Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Douglas at PHI 42. 32-R.Douglas to DET 40 for 18 yards (77-F.Ragnow). PENALTY on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.
2nd · 2:00DET +22% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 13-N.Agholor to DET 40 for 5 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DET-23-D.Slay at DET 40. 23-D.Slay pushed ob at PHI 22 for 38 yards (11-C.Wentz). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:49DET +17% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep middle to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside.
1st · 11:28PHI +14% win prob4-J.Elliott kicks 65 yards from PHI 35 to DET 0. 39-J.Agnew for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:15DET +13% win prob(5:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard to PHI 49 for 4 yards (40-J.Davis, 98-D.Harrison). FUMBLES (40-J.Davis), RECOVERED by DET-91-A.Robinson at DET 49. 91-A.Robinson to DET 49 for no gain (11-C.Wentz).
4th · 0:55
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
K.Johnson's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 14:12 left in the 2nd put Detroit Lions ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:30J.Elliott·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+30–3
1st11:28J.Agnew·100-yd return TD100-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+77–3
Eagles ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Lions: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.15Eagles: −0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
−0.09Eagles: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.06Lions: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.25Eagles: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 58 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Eagles’s 69 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Eagles 4.
NoteEagles outgained Lions 373-289 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Eagles12.1%
right on their number · −4.6 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−0.46× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -8.4 pts, 7.6 points below their season mean of -0.8 pts and 1.2 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Prater−27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:53) 5-M.Prater 46 yard field goal is BLOCKED (27-M.Jenkins), Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin, RECOVERED by PHI-32-R.Douglas at PHI 42. 32-R.Douglas to DET 40 for 18 yards (77-F.Ragnow). PENALTY on PHI-27-M.Jenkins, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DET 40.
Q4 1:53 · Lions · 4th & 10 at PHI 28 · gained nothing · -4.10 EP · −27.2% win probability
170 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 80 yards from the PHI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
37%
Yards
660
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51-0.2363%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.0576%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR17+0.1141%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0045%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2950%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.3429%
Lions0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Lions0Eagles3
Field goal12 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Lions 7
Lions6Eagles3
Lions7Eagles3
Touchdown2 plays
Lions7Eagles9
Lions7Eagles10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Lions 1
The period ended13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Eagles 3
2nd quarter48 plays
Lions13Eagles10
Lions14Eagles10
Touchdown4 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 43
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Lions 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 45
Lions17Eagles10
Field goal5 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Eagles 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Lions 45
Lions20Eagles10
Field goal7 plays, from the Eagles 22 to the Eagles 15
The period ended4 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 36
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 48
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 2 to the Lions 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Lions20Eagles16
Lions20Eagles17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 47 to the Lions 19
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Eagles 12
4th quarter53 plays
Lions26Eagles17
Lions27Eagles17
Touchdown2 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Eagles 48 to the Eagles 45
Lions27Eagles23
Lions27Eagles24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Lions 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Eagles 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThree
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 22
No good5 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, three linebackers and seven backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from midfield to the Lions 45
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Eagles -4
Closing total
45
Lions moneyline
+188
Eagles moneyline
-212
Eagles closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 45; the game landed 51 — over by 6.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 86°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Tony Corrente
Rest
Lions 7 days · Eagles 7 days
Coaches
Matt Patricia vs Doug Pederson
DET +12% win prob
(:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at DET 20 for 25 yards (32-T.Wilson) [90-T.Flowers]. PENALTY on PHI-43-D.Sproles, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards, enforced at DET 45 - No Play.
4th · 2:25DET +11% win prob(2:25) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles up the middle to PHI 28 for 6 yards (42-D.Kennard).
1st · 7:11PHI +9% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz scrambles up the middle to DET 1 for 19 yards (28-Q.Diggs).
Lionscategory by categoryEagles
Lions0
Eagles3
