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Houston Texans 27 at Los Angeles Chargers 20. Final.
Chargers -3 upsetU 49 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
Houston Texans 27, Chargers 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:53, 2nd and 10, on J.Akins — 17.1 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:53 · 2nd and 10
J.Akins
Texans
(9:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.1
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Houston Texans 27–20. Biggest swing: Q4 9:53, Texans +17.1% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetChargersQ1 11:19(11:19) 4-D.Watson to HOU 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LAC-20-D.King at HOU 28. 20-D.King to HOU 15 for 13 yards (74-M.Scharping).
15.8pts
D.HopkinsTexansQ3 2:07(2:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to LAC 15 for 34 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
16.1pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — -0.14 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.72 expected points per carry.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Texans won this one — 6 of 10 on third down, against Chargers at 5 of 15 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.56 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at +0.07 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.23 expected points per snap, against Chargers at +0.02 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 7 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Texans164 of 176 plays carry both curves
(9:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.1 for ChargersExpected points −4.89 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 141
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:53LAC +17% win prob(9:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 2:07LAC +16% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins to LAC 15 for 34 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
1st · 11:19HOU +16% win prob(11:19) 4-D.Watson to HOU 33 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by LAC-20-D.King at HOU 28. 20-D.King to HOU 15 for 13 yards (74-M.Scharping).
4th · 2:07LAC +14% win prob(2:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to HOU 42 for 15 yards (32-L.Johnson) [99-J.Watt].
3rd · 1:25LAC +11% win prob(1:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 88-J.Akins for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 5:27LAC +11% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to HOU 35 for 31 yards (39-T.Gipson).
3rd · 3:52
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Akins's 15-yard touchdown catch with 1:25 left in the 3rd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
4th7:19T.Long·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap C.Mazza+327–20
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryChargers
Texans6–1Chargers
377Total yards366
7.0Yards per play5.3
46%Success rate45%
60%Third-down rate33%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays7
18First downs20
2Sacks taken5
1Turnovers1
The read
Texans ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.72 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Texans: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.02Chargers: +0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.56Texans: +0.56 expected points added per play
+0.07Chargers: +0.07 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.72Texans: −0.72 expected points added per play
−0.14Chargers: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 54 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Chargers’s 69 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Texans 4, Chargers 3.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.02.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
HOU's pass rate over expected, +14.0 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.7-swing turn from week 2.
54 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +7.5 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.12× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Chargers15.0%
right on their number · +2.8 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+0.35× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 14.0 pts, 12.8 points above their season mean of 1.2 pts and 2.3 times their own 5.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
53 dressed · 8 never used
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%59 snaps
74Max ScharpingT · Every snap100%59 snaps
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%59 snaps
73Zach FultonG · Every snap100%59 snaps
4Deshaun WatsonQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
66Nick MartinC · Every snap100%59 snaps
10DeAndre HopkinsWR · Full-time97%57 snaps
15Will FullerWR · Full-time97%57 snaps
87Darren FellsTE · Heavy rotation64%38 snaps
12Kenny StillsWR · Heavy rotation54%32 snaps
23Carlos HydeRB · Heavy rotation53%31 snaps
25Duke JohnsonRB · Rotational47%28 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Rotational46%27 snaps
16Keke CouteeWR · Rotational27%16 snaps
44Cullen GillaspiaRB · Situational7%4 snaps
63Roderick JohnsonOT · Situational5%3 snaps
38Buddy HowellRB · Situational2%1 snap
14DeAndre CarterWR · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Carlos WatkinsDTSenio KelemeteGAlex McGoughQBAJ McCarronQBTaiwan JonesRBSeantrel HendersonTJerell AdamsTELogan PaulsenTE
Los Angeles Chargers
53 dressed · 7 never used
69Sam TeviT · Every snap100%74 snaps
78Trent ScottT · Every snap100%74 snaps
75Michael SchofieldG · Every snap100%74 snaps
66Dan FeeneyG · Every snap100%74 snaps
17Philip RiversQB · Every snap100%74 snaps
53Mike PounceyC · Every snap100%74 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Full-time93%69 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time91%67 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Heavy rotation65%48 snaps
80Sean CulkinTE · Heavy rotation58%43 snaps
12Travis BenjaminWR · Heavy rotation57%42 snaps
22Justin JacksonRB · Rotational38%28 snaps
88Virgil GreenTE · Rotational36%27 snaps
15Dontrelle InmanWR · Rotational32%24 snaps
87Lance KendricksTE · Situational15%11 snaps
34Derek WattFB · Situational11%8 snaps
77Forrest LampOG · Situational4%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 7
Michael DavisCBCortez BroughtonDTMike BadgleyKEmeke EgbuleLBChris PeaceLBEaston StickQBHunter HenryTE
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson pass+18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 88-J.Akins for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 9:53 · Texans · 2nd & 10 at HOU 47 · gained 53 · +4.89 EP · +18.1% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 89 yards from the LAC 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
742
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.0178%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.1863%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2875%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.2683%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.3740%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 33
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 39
Texans0Chargers6
Texans0Chargers7
Touchdown4 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Texans 7
Punt12 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chargers 43
The period ended10 plays, from the Chargers 13 to the Chargers 42
2nd quarter52 plays
Texans0Chargers10
Field goal9 plays, from midfield to the Texans 6
Texans6Chargers10
Texans7Chargers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chargers 14
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to midfield
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 6 to the Texans 43
Texans7Chargers16
Texans7Chargers17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 11 to the Texans 12
No good5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Chargers 38
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 28
Punt4 plays
Texans13Chargers17
Texans14Chargers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 45 to the Chargers 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThree
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Texans 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Texans20Chargers17
Texans21Chargers17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Texans 27 to the Chargers 15
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 37
4th quarter48 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 36 to midfield
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Texans27Chargers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 18 to the Texans 47
Texans27Chargers20
Field goal7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Texans 24
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Turnover on downs19 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Texans 24
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chargers -3
Closing total
49
Texans moneyline
+151
Chargers moneyline
-168
Chargers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 49; the game landed 47 — under by 2.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
StubHub Center
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 88°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Texans 7 days · Chargers 7 days
Coaches
Bill O'Brien vs Anthony Lynn
HOU +11% win prob
(3:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers sacked at HOU 31 for -2 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus) [59-W.Mercilus], RECOVERED by HOU-41-Z.Cunningham at HOU 27. 41-Z.Cunningham to HOU 27 for no gain (75-M.Schofield).
4th · 1:05LAC +9% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to HOU 30 for 4 yards (20-J.Reid). HOU-20-J.Reid was injured during the play.
