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Los Angeles Rams 20 at Cleveland Browns 13. Final.
Rams -4 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
Los Angeles Rams 20, Browns 13 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:33, 4th and 4, on J.Johnson — 19.6 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:33 · 4th and 4
J.Johnson
Rams
(:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 18-D.Ratley INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA -3. Touchback.
Rams closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.
Los Angeles Rams 20–13. Biggest swing: Q4 0:33, Rams +19.6% win probability on one snap.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.CarrieBrownsQ3 3:38(3:38) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 12-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 38-T.Carrie at CLE 49. 38-T.Carrie to CLE 49 for no gain (12-B.Cooks). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
14.8pts
C.KuppRamsQ4 12:51(12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Browns owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Rams at 3 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Rams won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Browns at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Browns at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.04 expected points per snap, against Browns at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Rams164 of 174 plays carry both curves
(:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 18-D.Ratley INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA -3. Touchback.
Swing −19.6 for BrownsExpected points −2.54 for BrownsModel and market agree here.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:33LA +20% win prob(:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 18-D.Ratley INTERCEPTED by 43-J.Johnson at LA -3. Touchback.
3rd · 3:38LA +15% win prob(3:38) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 12-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 38-T.Carrie at CLE 49. 38-T.Carrie to CLE 49 for no gain (12-B.Cooks). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 12:51CLE +14% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:28LA +13% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 29 for -7 yards (95-M.Garrett). FUMBLES (95-M.Garrett), touched at LA 31, RECOVERED by CLE-53-J.Schobert at LA 38. 53-J.Schobert to LA 17 for 21 yards (30-T.Gurley).
3rd · 6:15CLE +13% win prob(6:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb pushed ob at LA 16 for 30 yards (43-J.Johnson).
3rd · 4:40CLE +11% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
C.Kupp's 5-yard touchdown catch with 12:51 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st4:10G.Zuerlein·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+33–0
2nd11:44A.Seibert·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+33–3
2nd0:04A.Seibert·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.Hughlett+33–6
4th12:51C.Kupp·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom J.Gofffrom J.GoffLead never changed again+717–13
4th6:40G.Zuerlein·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+320–13
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ramscategory by categoryBrowns
Rams7–2Browns
345Total yards270
5.5Yards per play4.3
44%Success rate37%
43%Third-down rate38%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays6
19First downs15
2Sacks taken3
3Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Rams: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.17Browns: −0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Rams: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.12Browns: −0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.08Rams: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.24Browns: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 63 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Browns’s 63 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Rams 3, Browns 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: +5.9 pts in week 2 against −6.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −6.5 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Browns9.8%
inside their normal wobble · −4.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -6.2 pts, 5.1 points below their season mean of -1.0 pts and 1.0 times their own 5.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb pushed ob at LA 16 for 30 yards (43-J.Johnson).
Q3 6:15 · Browns · 3rd & 13 at LA 46 · gained 30 · +3.53 EP · +19.8% win probability
162 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 75 yards from the LA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
37%
Yards
614
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR56-0.0761%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.1763%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7+0.0157%
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR7+0.9586%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 37
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 24
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Browns 44
Rams3Browns0
Field goal12 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Browns 34
The period ended10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Rams 23
2nd quarter46 plays
Rams3Browns3
Field goal7 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 5
Punt8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Browns 44
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 6 to the Browns 12
No good7 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Browns 24
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 38 to the Rams 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Rams 12 to the Rams 41
Rams3Browns6
Field goal6 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Rams9Browns6
Rams10Browns6
Touchdown13 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Browns 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Rams10Browns12
Rams10Browns13
Touchdown15 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Rams 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 40
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 49 to the Rams 49
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended5 plays, from the Rams 28 to the Browns 41
4th quarter48 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Rams16Browns13
Rams17Browns13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 1
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Rams 40
Rams20Browns13
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 38 to the Browns 19
Punt5 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Rams 47 to the Browns 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Browns 43 to the Rams 4
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -4
Closing total
48
Rams moneyline
-215
Browns moneyline
+190
Rams closed -4 and covered, winning by 7.
Total closed 48; the game landed 33 — under by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 76°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Rams 7 days · Browns 6 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Freddie Kitchens
(4:40) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-D.Harris for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:44CLE +10% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-C.Kupp for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:50CLE +9% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 18-D.Ratley to LA 9 for 16 yards (21-A.Talib). PENALTY on LA-99-A.Donald, Roughing the Passer, 5 yards, enforced at LA 9.
