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Dallas Cowboys 31, Dolphins 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:25, 4th and 10, on J.Sanders — 10.5 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:25 · 4th and 10
J.Sanders
Cowboys
(13:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
Dome
Cowboys closed -22 and covered, winning by 25.
Dallas Cowboys 31–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:25, Cowboys +10.5% win probability on one snap.
10.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.ParkerDolphinsQ1 14:36(14:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 11-D.Parker to DAL 29 for 40 yards (24-C.Awuzie). Penalty on DAL-24-C.Awuzie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
8.2pts
D.PrescottDolphinsQ2 0:03(:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right (30-C.Lammons).
3.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Cowboys won this one — 14 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.26 expected points per carry, against Dolphins at -0.52 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys won this one — 4 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.22 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.29 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Dolphins174 of 182 plays carry both curves
(13:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
Swing +10.5 for CowboysExpected points +4.31 for CowboysThe model had Dolphins 33 points higher than the market did.play 9
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:25MIA +10% win prob(13:25) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
1st · 14:36DAL +8% win prob(14:36) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 11-D.Parker to DAL 29 for 40 yards (24-C.Awuzie). Penalty on DAL-24-C.Awuzie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 0:03MIA +4% win prob(:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right (30-C.Lammons).
3rd · 14:14DAL +4% win prob(14:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 15-D.Smith to MIA 41 for 33 yards (24-J.Bademosi; 30-C.Lammons) [97-T.Harris].
2nd · 0:31MIA +4% win prob(:31) 32-K.Drake up the middle to DAL 7 for no gain (54-J.Smith). FUMBLES (54-J.Smith), touched at DAL 7, RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 9. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 9 for no gain (63-M.Deiter).
2nd · 0:53DAL +3% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Parker. PENALTY on DAL-24-C.Awuzie, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at DAL 49 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
B.Maher's 28-yard field goal with 10:31 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:31B.Maher·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder C.Jones · snap L.LadouceurLead never changed again+30–3
Cowboys ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.29Dolphins: −0.29 expected points added per play
+0.22Cowboys: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.19Dolphins: −0.19 expected points added per play
+0.19Cowboys: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.52Dolphins: −0.52 expected points added per play
+0.26Cowboys: +0.26 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 68 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 66 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Cowboys 5.
NoteCowboys won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.22 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's sack or hit rate turned over: 7.9% in week 2 against 21.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · +0.9 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+0.18× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Cowboys21.3%
leaned — got home · +6.9 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (+1.34× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 21.3%, 6.9 points above their season mean of 14.3% and 1.3 times their own 5.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Miami Dolphins
53 dressed · 9 never used
61J'Marcus WebbT · Every snap100%70 snaps
63Michael DeiterOG · Every snap100%70 snaps
67Daniel KilgoreC · Every snap100%70 snaps
18Preston WilliamsWR · Full-time96%67 snaps
11DeVante ParkerWR · Full-time96%67 snaps
3Josh RosenQB · Full-time93%65 snaps
76Evan BoehmG · Heavy rotation71%50 snaps
32Kenyan DrakeRB · Heavy rotation66%46 snaps
19Jakeem GrantWR · Heavy rotation63%44 snaps
62Shaq CalhounG · Heavy rotation57%40 snaps
81Durham SmytheTE · Heavy rotation56%39 snaps
65Danny IsidoraG · Rotational43%30 snaps
88Mike GesickiTE · Rotational43%30 snaps
83Nick O'LearyTE · Rotational39%27 snaps
27Kalen BallageRB · Rotational33%23 snaps
77Jesse DavisG · Rotational29%20 snaps
14Ryan FitzpatrickQB · Situational7%5 snaps
17Allen HurnsWR · Situational7%5 snaps
38Chandler CoxRB · Situational3%2 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Tank CarradineDEChris ReedGMark WaltonHBSam EguavoenLBMyles GaskinRBDoug MiddletonSReshad JonesSSIsaiah PrinceTAlbert WilsonWR
Dallas Cowboys
53 dressed · 9 never used
72Travis FrederickC · Every snap100%72 snaps
77Tyron SmithT · Every snap100%72 snaps
71La'el CollinsT · Every snap100%72 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%72 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Every snap100%72 snaps
4Dak PrescottQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
15Devin SmithWR · Full-time92%66 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time85%61 snaps
18Randall CobbWR · Heavy rotation74%53 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Heavy rotation67%48 snaps
82Jason WittenTE · Heavy rotation51%37 snaps
89Blake JarwinTE · Rotational49%35 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Rotational32%23 snaps
11Ced WilsonWR · Situational19%14 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Situational19%14 snaps
49Jamize OlawaleFB · Situational13%9 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Adam RedmondCTyrone CrawfordDEAntwaun WoodsDTXavier WoodsFSLuke GiffordLBCooper RushQBBrandon KnightTTavon AustinWRMichael GallupWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Drake up−19% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:31) 32-K.Drake up the middle to DAL 7 for no gain (54-J.Smith). FUMBLES (54-J.Smith), touched at DAL 7, RECOVERED by DAL-90-D.Lawrence at DAL 9. 90-D.Lawrence to DAL 9 for no gain (63-M.Deiter).
Q2 0:31 · Dolphins · 1st & goal at DAL 7 · gained nothing · -5.31 EP · −18.9% win probability
172 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 76 yards from the MIA 17 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
42%
Yards
759
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR47+0.2155%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.3267%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.2860%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0127%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Dolphins0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
No good8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Cowboys 29
Dolphins0Cowboys3
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 37 to the Dolphins 10
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Dolphins 23
Dolphins0Cowboys9
Dolphins0Cowboys10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 46 to the Dolphins 5
Dolphins3Cowboys10
Field goal11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Cowboys 3
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 30
2nd quarter50 plays
Intercepted1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 49 to the Cowboys 47
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 8 to the Cowboys 26
Dolphins6Cowboys10
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Cowboys 15
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 42
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Dolphins 17 to the Cowboys 7
The period ended9 plays, from the Cowboys 9 to the Cowboys 48
3rd quarter36 plays
Dolphins6Cowboys16
Dolphins6Cowboys17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Dolphins 19
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 41
Dolphins6Cowboys23
Dolphins6Cowboys24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 24 to the Dolphins 8
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 32
The period ended4 plays, from the Cowboys 20 to the Cowboys 22
4th quarter47 plays
Punt1 play
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 37
No good10 plays, from the Cowboys 15 to the Dolphins 22
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Cowboys 38
Dolphins6Cowboys30
Dolphins6Cowboys31
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cowboys 40 to the Dolphins 16
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Cowboys 40
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
