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New Orleans Saints 33 at Seattle Seahawks 27. Final.
Seahawks -5 upsetO 44 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
New Orleans Saints 33, Seahawks 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 7:05, 2nd and 6, on C.Carson — 16.9 win-probability points to the Saints on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:05 · 2nd and 6
C.Carson
Saints
(7:05) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right tackle to SEA 30 for 22 yards (25-E.Apple, 43-M.Williams). FUMBLES (25-E.Apple), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at SEA 33. 24-V.Bell for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Seahawks closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New Orleans Saints 33–27. Biggest swing: Q2 7:05, Saints +16.9% win probability on one snap.
16.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.MooreSeahawksQ1 10:53(10:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore to NO 45 for 29 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
11.0pts
C.CarsonSaintsQ2 2:37(2:37) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right guard to NO 42 for -1 yards (56-D.Davis, 94-C.Jordan).
10.9pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Saints at 3 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Saints won this one — -0.17 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.81 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Seahawks at 37% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Saints won this one — no giveaways, against Seahawks at 1 giveaway.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 18 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Saints.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Saints173 of 183 plays carry both curves
(7:05) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right tackle to SEA 30 for 22 yards (25-E.Apple, 43-M.Williams). FUMBLES (25-E.Apple), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at SEA 33. 24-V.Bell for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −16.9 for SeahawksExpected points −6.59 for SeahawksThe model had Saints 10 points higher than the market did.play 57
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:05NO +17% win prob(7:05) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right tackle to SEA 30 for 22 yards (25-E.Apple, 43-M.Williams). FUMBLES (25-E.Apple), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at SEA 33. 24-V.Bell for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:53SEA +11% win prob(10:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 83-D.Moore to NO 45 for 29 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
2nd · 2:37NO +11% win prob(2:37) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right guard to NO 42 for -1 yards (56-D.Davis, 94-C.Jordan).
1st · 12:19NO +10% win prob(12:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to NO 47, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Harris for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:36SEA +9% win prob(4:36) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left to 16-T.Lockett to NO 27 for 32 yards (25-E.Apple).
2nd · 0:42SEA +6% win prob(:42) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
V.Bell's 33-yard touchdown with 7:05 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:19D.Harris·53-yd return TD53-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+77–0
Seahawks ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Saints, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.81 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Saints: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.03Seahawks: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Saints: +0.30 expected points added per play
+0.30Seahawks: +0.30 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Saints: −0.17 expected points added per play
−0.81Seahawks: −0.81 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 51 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 75 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Seahawks 5.
NoteSeahawks outgained Saints 514-265 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NO's sack or hit rate turned over: 19.4% in week 2 against 5.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.0 points.
NO's pass rate over expected turned over: −2.3 pts in week 2 against +8.3 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.6 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−1.77× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Seahawks6.9%
inside their normal wobble · −3.2 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (−0.64× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 5.7%, 10.6 points below their season mean of 16.2% and 1.8 times their own 6.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
53 dressed · 8 never used
67Larry WarfordG · Every snap100%56 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%56 snaps
75Andrus PeatT · Every snap100%56 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%56 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%56 snaps
5Teddy BridgewaterQB · Full-time98%55 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Full-time88%49 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time88%49 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation75%42 snaps
19Ted GinnWR · Heavy rotation68%38 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation59%33 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Rotational45%25 snaps
64Will ClappC · Situational21%12 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Situational21%12 snaps
42Zach LineFB · Situational20%11 snaps
84Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR · Situational11%6 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Situational7%4 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Ken CrawleyCBSaquan HamptonDBCarl GrandersonDESheldon RankinsDTPatrick OmamehGDrew BreesQBEthan GreenidgeTTre'Quan SmithWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
G.Fant reported−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:05) 74-G.Fant reported in as eligible. 32-C.Carson right tackle to SEA 30 for 22 yards (25-E.Apple, 43-M.Williams). FUMBLES (25-E.Apple), RECOVERED by NO-24-V.Bell at SEA 33. 24-V.Bell for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 7:05 · Seahawks · 2nd & 6 at SEA 8 · gained 22 · -6.59 EP · −18.4% win probability
171 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 183 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 183 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 82 yards from the SEA 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
183 of 183 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
183
EPA per play
+0.01
Success rate
41%
Yards
779
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR51+0.1569%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.1382%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.0836%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR9+0.20100%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR6-0.3217%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
183 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
183 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Saints6Seahawks0
Touchdown7 plays
Saints7Seahawks0
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Saints 39
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Saints 18
Saints7Seahawks6
Saints7Seahawks7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Saints 8
The period ended8 plays, from the Saints 33 to the Saints 45
2nd quarter40 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 2 to the Seahawks 21
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 43
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Saints13Seahawks7
Touchdown2 plays, from the Seahawks 4 to the Seahawks 8
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Seahawks 32 to the Saints 41
Saints19Seahawks7
Saints20Seahawks7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Saints 42 to the Seahawks 29
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Seahawks 30
3rd quarter39 plays
Saints26Seahawks7
Saints27Seahawks7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Seahawks 1
Punt6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 30
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Saints 48 to the Saints 13
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Saints 32
4th quarter65 plays
Saints27Seahawks13
Saints27Seahawks14
Touchdown12 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Saints 2
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 22 to the Saints 28
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Seahawks 19 to the Seahawks 28
Saints33Seahawks14
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Seahawks 1
Saints33Seahawks20
Saints33Seahawks21
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Saints 8
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 32
Saints33Seahawks27
Touchdown14 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Saints 4
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Seahawks -5
Closing total
44
Saints moneyline
+199
Seahawks moneyline
-225
Seahawks closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 60 — over by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
CenturyLink Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south; 0.02 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
Saints 7 days · Seahawks 7 days
Coaches
Sean Payton vs Pete Carroll
1st · 15:00
NO +6% win prob
(15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 32-C.Carson to SEA 27 for 2 yards (92-M.Davenport). PENALTY on SEA-88-W.Dissly, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 25 - No Play.
2nd · 4:06SEA +5% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end to NO 41 for 8 yards (25-E.Apple).
Saintscategory by categorySeahawks
Saints6
Seahawks0
