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2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
GiantsNew York32
BY 1final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay31
New York Giants 32 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31. Final.
Buccaneers -5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
New York Giants 32, Buccaneers 31 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 3rd and 16, on M.Gay — 75.3 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 3rd and 16
M.Gay
Giants
(:04) 9-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
75.3
O 48 ✓
15.4 mph wind
Buccaneers closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 32–31 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Giants +75.3% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.4 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.JonesGiantsQ4 1:21(1:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
19.6pts
M.EvansBuccaneersQ4 0:34(:34) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to NYG 9 for 44 yards (20-Ja.Jenkins).
24.1pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 36% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Giants won this one — 6 of 13 on third down, against Buccaneers at 4 of 14 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Giants at 7 chunk plays.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Giants won this one — 3 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Buccaneers at 2 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Giants178 of 189 plays carry both curves
(:04) 9-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
Swing −75.3 for BuccaneersExpected points −2.77 for BuccaneersThe model had Giants 6 points higher than the market did.play 188
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04NYG +75% win prob(:04) 9-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
4th · 0:34TB +24% win prob(:34) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 13-M.Evans to NYG 9 for 44 yards (20-Ja.Jenkins).
4th · 1:21TB +20% win prob(1:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones scrambles up the middle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 2:15TB +15% win prob(2:15) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard to TB 12 for 36 yards (31-J.Whitehead).
4th · 10:36NYG +12% win prob(10:36) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 35 for -5 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett), RECOVERED by TB-56-R.Nunez-Roches at NYG 42. 56-R.Nunez-Roches to NYG 42 for no gain (8-D.Jones).
4th · 11:24NYG +12% win prob(11:24) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle intended for 13-M.Evans INTERCEPTED by 57-R.Connelly at NYG 26. 57-R.Connelly to NYG 39 for 13 yards (12-C.Godwin).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Jones's 7-yard rushing touchdown with 1:21 left in the 4th put New York Giants ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th6:04M.Gay·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+325–31
4th1:21D.Jones·7-yd TD run7-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+732–31
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Giants2–7Buccaneers
386Total yards499
6.3Yards per play6.9
36%Success rate49%
46%Third-down rate29%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays10
17First downs22
5Sacks taken4
3Turnovers2
The read
Buccaneers ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.12Giants: +0.12 expected points added per play
+0.12Buccaneers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Giants: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.20Buccaneers: +0.20 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Giants: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.00Buccaneers: +0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 61 snaps at a 74% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 72 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Giants 5, Buccaneers 7.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.12 expected points added per play vs 0.12.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 11.1% in week 2 against 28.9% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +9.4 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+1.47× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Buccaneers28.9%
leaned — got home · +13.8 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (+1.90× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.9%, 13.8 points above their season mean of 15.1% and 1.9 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Gay−69% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 9-M.Gay 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.
Q4 0:04 · Buccaneers · 3rd & goal at NYG 16 · gained nothing · -2.77 EP · −68.9% win probability
176 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 80 yards from the NYG 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
39%
Yards
885
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.1673%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.2559%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19+0.1437%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.2957%
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR8-0.3888%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Giants0Buccaneers6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Giants 21
Giants3Buccaneers6
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Buccaneers 18
Giants3Buccaneers12
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Giants 3
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter59 plays
Giants9Buccaneers12
Giants10Buccaneers12
Touchdown14 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Buccaneers 7
Giants10Buccaneers15
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Giants 19
Punt6 plays
Giants10Buccaneers18
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 29 to the Giants 9
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 45
Giants10Buccaneers24
Giants10Buccaneers25
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Giants 20
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 34
Giants10Buccaneers28
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 20 to the Giants 34
3rd quarter44 plays
Giants16Buccaneers28
Giants18Buccaneers28
Touchdown3 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Giants 49
Giants24Buccaneers28
Giants25Buccaneers28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Buccaneers 4
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 27
Punt5 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Buccaneers 16 to the Buccaneers 44
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter47 plays
Punt2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 46 to the Giants 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Giants 39 to the Giants 40
Giants25Buccaneers31
Field goal8 plays, from the Giants 42 to the Giants 5
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 30
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 22 to the Buccaneers 31
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Giants31Buccaneers31
Giants32Buccaneers31
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Buccaneers 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
No good8 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Giants 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -5
Closing total
48
Giants moneyline
+202
Buccaneers moneyline
-230
Buccaneers closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48; the game landed 63 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 88°F at kickoff; windy at 15 mph out of the east; mainly clear.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Giants 7 days · Buccaneers 10 days
Coaches
Pat Shurmur vs Bruce Arians
NoteWind at 15.4 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
4th · 0:51TB +10% win prob(:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 12-C.Godwin to TB 47 for 20 yards (34-G.Haley). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
3rd · 8:21TB +9% win prob(8:21) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 87-S.Shepard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on TB-28-V.Hargreaves, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
