2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · Gillette Stadium
New York Jets
14
New England PatriotsWinner
30
New England Patriots 30–14. Biggest swing: Q1 12:33, NYJ +6% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(12:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 12:33NYJ +6% win prob(12:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
- Q1 · 14:29NE +4% win prob(14:29) 8-L.Falk pass short right to 82-J.Crowder pushed ob at NYJ 47 for 15 yards (31-J.Jones).
- Q1 · 13:19NYJ +2% win prob(13:19) Direct snap to 26-L.Bell. 88-T.Montgomery up the middle to NE 49 for 3 yards (23-P.Chung, 55-J.Simon).
- Q1 · 15:00NE +1% win prob(15:00) 26-L.Bell up the middle to NYJ 32 for 7 yards (71-D.Shelton; 93-L.Guy).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Jets | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 47 | 71 |
| Total yards | 105 | 382 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 2.2 | 5.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.62 | -0.06 (edge) |
| Success rate | 21% | 41% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 57% | 65% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.62 | 0.03 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.62 | -0.24 (edge) |
| Third downs | 0/12 | 6/15 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 1 | 5 (edge) |
| First downs gained on snaps | 4 | 19 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 5 | 1 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 1 | 1 |
Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.62.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 7 | 26 | 2:34 | Punt | |
| 2 | NE | NE 12 | 10 | 88 | 4:31 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | -13 | 2:08 | Punt | |
| 4 | NE | NYJ 45 | 4 | 45 | 1:22 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | 1 | 1:27 | Punt | |
| 6 | NE | NE 41 | 11 | 59 | 4:24 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 6 | 11 | 2:03 | Punt | |
| 8 | NE | NE 37 | 6 | -10 | 1:32 | Punt | |
| 9 | NYJ | NYJ 12 | 5 | 13 | 2:49 | Punt | |
| 10 | NE | NE 23 | 6 | 19 | 2:51 | Punt | |
| 11 | NYJ | NYJ 20 | 5 | 21 | 2:02 | Punt | |
| 12 | NE | NE 15 | 6 | 16 | 1:43 | Punt | |
| 13 | NYJ | NYJ 10 | 1 | 8 | 0:34 | End of half | |
| 14 | NE | NE 25 | 7 | 12 | 1:51 | Punt | |
| 15 | NYJ | NYJ 8 | 3 | 8 | 1:33 | Interception | |
| 16 | NE | NYJ 17 | 5 | 23 | 2:47 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 5 | 1 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 18 | NE | NE 40 | 11 | 75 | 4:40 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | NYJ | NYJ 25 | 7 | 19 | 2:46 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 20 | NE | NE 25 | 7 | 35 | 3:55 | Punt | |
| 21 | NYJ | NYJ 8 | 6 | 1 | 2:45 | Punt | |
| 22 | NE | NE 45 | 4 | 7 | 2:18 | Defensive touchdown | |
| 23 | NE | NYJ 48 | 5 | 8 | 1:37 | Punt | |
| 24 | NYJ | NYJ 1 | 4 | 8 | 2:13 | Punt | |
| 25 | NE | NE 39 | 4 | 5 | 0:54 | Punt | |
| 26 | NYJ | NYJ 27 | 4 | 1 | 0:50 | Turnover on downs | |
| 27 | NE | NYJ 28 | 2 | 0 | 0:49 | End of game |
0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 88 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- NE -20.5
- Closing total
- 43
- NYJ moneyline
- +1203
- NE moneyline
- -1962
Patriots closed -20.5, won by 16 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 43; the game landed 44 — over by 1.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Gillette Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 81°F, wind 10 mph
- Referee
- Carl Cheffers
- Rest
- NYJ 6 days · NE 7 days
- Coaches
- Adam Gase vs Bill Belichick
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.