For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
New York Jets 14 at New England Patriots 30. Final.
Patriots -20.5 no coverO 43 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
New England Patriots 30, Jets 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:33, 4th and 6 — 6.4 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:33 · 4th and 6
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(12:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Patriots closed -20.5, won by 16 — but didn't cover.
New England Patriots 30–14. Biggest swing: Q1 12:33, Patriots +6.4% win probability on one snap.
6.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.CrowderJetsQ1 14:29(14:29) 8-L.Falk pass short right to 82-J.Crowder pushed ob at NYJ 47 for 15 yards (31-J.Jones).
4.4pts
T.MontgomeryPatriotsQ1 13:19(13:19) Direct snap to 26-L.Bell. 88-T.Montgomery up the middle to NE 49 for 3 yards (23-P.Chung, 55-J.Simon).
2.1pts
What separated them
Third down
Patriots won this one — 6 of 15 on third down, against Jets at 0 of 12 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Patriots won this one — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.62 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 41% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 21% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.62 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Jets165 of 172 plays carry both curves
(12:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
Swing +6.4 for PatriotsExpected points +0.10 for PatriotsThe model had Jets 30 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:33NYJ +6% win prob(12:33) 4-L.Edwards punts 37 yards to NE 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-G.Olszewski.
1st · 14:29NE +4% win prob(14:29) 8-L.Falk pass short right to 82-J.Crowder pushed ob at NYJ 47 for 15 yards (31-J.Jones).
1st · 13:19NYJ +2% win prob(13:19) Direct snap to 26-L.Bell. 88-T.Montgomery up the middle to NE 49 for 3 yards (23-P.Chung, 55-J.Simon).
1st · 15:00NE +1% win prob(15:00) 26-L.Bell up the middle to NYJ 32 for 7 yards (71-D.Shelton; 93-L.Guy).
1st · 12:38NYJ +1% win prob(12:38) (Shotgun) 8-L.Falk pass incomplete deep right to 10-B.Berrios.
1st · 13:59NYJ +1% win prob(13:59) 26-L.Bell up the middle to NYJ 48 for 1 yard (54-D.Hightower, 55-J.Simon).
1st · 11:11
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
S.Michel's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 8:00 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:00S.Michel·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+60–6
Patriots ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.62Jets: −0.62 expected points added per play
−0.06Patriots: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.62Jets: −0.62 expected points added per play
+0.03Patriots: +0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.62Jets: −0.62 expected points added per play
−0.24Patriots: −0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 47 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Patriots’s 71 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Jets 0, Patriots 5.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.62.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
NE's sack or hit rate, 29.6%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 3 — 0.7 points clear of the next team along.
27 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
NYJ's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 66.7% in week 2 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.0 points.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.5% in week 2 against 62.5% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
56 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 18 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.9 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.94× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Patriots29.6%
leaned — got home · +13.4 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (+1.80× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.6%, 13.4 points above their season mean of 16.2% and 1.8 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
53 dressed · 9 never used
72Brandon ShellT · Every snap100%50 snaps
70Kelechi OsemeleG · Every snap100%50 snaps
67Brian WintersG · Every snap100%50 snaps
11Robby AndersonWR · Every snap100%50 snaps
68Kelvin BeachumT · Every snap100%50 snaps
26Le'Veon BellRB · Every snap100%50 snaps
55Ryan KalilC · Every snap100%50 snaps
8Luke FalkQB · Every snap100%50 snaps
84Ryan GriffinTE · Full-time92%46 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Full-time90%45 snaps
10Braxton BerriosWR · Heavy rotation60%30 snaps
85Trevon WescoTE · Situational22%11 snaps
87Daniel BrownTE · Situational18%9 snaps
88Ty MontgomeryRB · Situational16%8 snaps
29Bilal PowellRB · Situational2%1 snap
Dressed, never took a snap · 9
Jordan WillisDEJohn Franklin-MyersDEC.J. MosleyILBQuinnen WilliamsNTJordan JenkinsOLBChuma EdogaOTSam DarnoldQBDavid FalesQBDemaryius ThomasWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:35) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 85-R.Izzo to NYJ 17 for 41 yards (20-M.Maye).
Q1 10:35 · Patriots · 3rd & 1 at NE 42 · gained 41 · +2.88 EP · +9.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 1 drawn hollow because the model scored no expected points on them · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 88 yards from the NE 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
33%
Yards
486
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43-0.1447%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.7181%
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR12+0.3692%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR12-0.4492%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3920%
Jets2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Jets2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Jets2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Patriots 49
Jets0Patriots6
Touchdown10 plays, from the Patriots 12 to the Jets 5
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 28
Jets0Patriots12
Jets0Patriots13
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jets 45 to the Jets 25
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 26
The period ended7 plays, from the Patriots 41 to the Jets 28
2nd quarter45 plays
Jets0Patriots19
Jets0Patriots20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jets 28 to the Jets 3
Punt6 plays
Punt7 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 12 to the Jets 30
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 43
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 43
Punt8 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Jets 41
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter47 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 37
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 16
Jets0Patriots23
Field goal6 plays, from the Jets 17 to the Jets 10
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 26
Jets0Patriots29
Jets0Patriots30
Touchdown12 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Jets 2
Jets6Patriots30
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Patriots 35
Jets7Patriots30
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter42 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Jets 37
Punt7 plays, from the Jets 8 to the Jets 21
Jets13Patriots30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Jets 44
Jets14Patriots30
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 48 to the Jets 40
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 1 to the Jets 9
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Patriots 44
Turnover on downs4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
