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2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
RaidersOakland14
BY 20final margin
VikingsMinnesota34
Oakland Raiders 14 at Minnesota Vikings 34. Final.
Vikings -8.5 ✓O 43 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
Minnesota Vikings 34, Raiders 14 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 11:31, 1st and 10, on A.Thielen — 8.4 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 11:31 · 1st and 10
A.Thielen
Vikings
(11:31) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-P.Hall].
8.4
Dome
Vikings closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 20.
Minnesota Vikings 34–14 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 11:31, Vikings +8.4% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.CousinsVikingsQ1 13:51(13:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen. PENALTY on LV-21-G.Conley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 25 - No Play.
4.2pts
I.SmithVikingsQ1 12:10(12:10) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 84-I.Smith to LV 35 for 20 yards (42-K.Joseph).
4.3pts
Note
Neither club separated from the other on any measure by enough to be worth calling a difference.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 21 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Raiders149 of 157 plays carry both curves
(11:31) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-P.Hall].
Swing +8.4 for VikingsExpected points +2.92 for VikingsThe model had Raiders 16 points higher than the market did.play 10
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 11:31MIN +8% win prob(11:31) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-P.Hall].
1st · 12:10MIN +4% win prob(12:10) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 84-I.Smith to LV 35 for 20 yards (42-K.Joseph).
1st · 13:51MIN +4% win prob(13:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Thielen. PENALTY on LV-21-G.Conley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at MIN 25 - No Play.
1st · 14:55OAK +4% win prob(14:55) 8-K.Cousins right guard to MIN 20 for -4 yards (35-C.Riley; 90-J.Hankins).
1st · 4:38MIN +4% win prob(4:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 33-D.Cook to MIN 31 for 18 yards (91-B.Mayowa) [99-A.Key]. PENALTY on LV-99-A.Key, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 31.
2nd · 14:23OAK +3% win prob(14:23) (No Huddle) 4-D.Carr pass short right intended for 87-F.Moreau INTERCEPTED by 22-H.Smith at LV 43. 22-H.Smith to LV 30 for 13 yards (87-F.Moreau).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Thielen's 35-yard touchdown catch with 11:31 left in the 1st put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:31A.Thielen·35-yd TD catch35-yard touchdown catchfrom K.Cousinsfrom K.CousinsLead never changed again+70–7
4 of 4 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's sack or hit rate turned over: 25.0% in week 2 against 13.2% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
4 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 12 pts
Only 0 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency.
Vikings13.2%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.44× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 42.5 points below their season mean of 42.5% and 1.3 times their own 33.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass+9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:38) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 33-D.Cook to MIN 31 for 18 yards (91-B.Mayowa) [99-A.Key]. PENALTY on LV-99-A.Key, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 31.
Q1 4:38 · Vikings · 3rd & 18 at MIN 13 · gained 18 · +4.09 EP · +8.7% win probability
147 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 157 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 157 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 92 yards from the MIN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, OAK attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
157 of 157 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
157
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
43%
Yards
687
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2677%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR18-0.0839%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2135%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5391%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR8+0.7825%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.7643%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.8133%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.3017%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.3420%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
157 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
157 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Raiders0Vikings6
Raiders0Vikings7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 24 to the Raiders 35
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 27
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 23 to the Vikings 29
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Raiders 33
The period ended13 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Raiders 2
2nd quarter45 plays
Raiders0Vikings13
Raiders0Vikings14
Touchdown2 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
Raiders0Vikings20
Raiders0Vikings21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 1
Raiders6Vikings21
Raiders7Vikings21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Vikings 29
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 40
Punt11 plays, from the Raiders 9 to the Vikings 48
The period ended4 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 24
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
Raiders7Vikings27
Raiders7Vikings28
Touchdown13 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Raiders 10
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Vikings 39
The period ended6 plays, from the Vikings 39 to the Raiders 34
4th quarter39 plays
Raiders7Vikings31
Field goal1 play
No good16 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Vikings 18
Raiders7Vikings34
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 41 to the Raiders 6
Raiders13Vikings34
Raiders14Vikings34
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Vikings 11
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
