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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:19 AM ET · 16 to play
Pittsburgh Steelers 20 at San Francisco 49ers 24. Final.
49ers -6 no coverU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
San Francisco 49ers 24, Steelers 20 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 5:36, 1st and 10, on J.Conner — 33.8 win-probability points to the 49ers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 5:36 · 1st and 10
J.Conner
49ers
(5:36) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner right end to PIT 22 for -2 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), touched at PIT 22, RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at PIT 24. 99-D.Buckner to PIT 24 for no gain (81-Z.Gentry). 2-yds of loose ball yardage
49ers closed -6, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
San Francisco 49ers 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 5:36, 49ers +33.8% win probability on one snap.
33.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.Smith-SchusterSteelersQ3 5:54(5:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at PIT 35. 65-yac
24.7pts
Unnamed on the sheetSteelersQ4 6:53(6:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo Aborted. 13-R.James Jr. FUMBLES at PIT 11, RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 14. 90-T.Watt to PIT 14 for no gain (13-R.James Jr.).
26.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Steelers at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against 49ers at 5 giveaways.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
49ers won this one — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Steelers at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
49ers won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Steelers at 3 of 12 on third down.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Steelers.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Steelers161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(5:36) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner right end to PIT 22 for -2 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), touched at PIT 22, RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at PIT 24. 99-D.Buckner to PIT 24 for no gain (81-Z.Gentry). 2-yds o
Swing +33.8 for 49ersExpected points +4.83 for 49ersThe model had Steelers 4 points higher than the market did.play 151
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 5:36PIT +34% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner right end to PIT 22 for -2 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), touched at PIT 22, RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at PIT 24. 99-D.Buckner to PIT 24 for no gain (81-Z.Gentry). 2-yds of loose ball yardage
4th · 6:53PIT +27% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo Aborted. 13-R.James Jr. FUMBLES at PIT 11, RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 14. 90-T.Watt to PIT 14 for no gain (13-R.James Jr.).
3rd · 5:54SF +25% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at PIT 35. 65-yac
4th · 10:28SF +20% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-yac
1st · 4:52PIT +16% win prob(4:52) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle intended for 18-D.Pettis INTERCEPTED by 39-M.Fitzpatrick (23-J.Haden) [48-B.Dupree] at SF 38. 39-M.Fitzpatrick pushed ob at SF 24 for 14 yards (85-G.Kittle).
2nd · 11:29PIT +14% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Pettis's 5-yard touchdown catch with 1:20 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st11:52C.Boswell·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+33–0
1st2:07C.Boswell·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+36–0
2nd6:48R.Gould·24-yd field goal24-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap J.Condo+36–3
4th1:20D.Pettis·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom J.Garoppolofrom J.GaroppoloLead never changed again+720–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by category49ers
Steelers1–849ers
239Total yards437
4.7Yards per play6.1
31%Success rate49%
25%Third-down rate55%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays10
10First downs24
2Sacks taken1
2Turnovers5
The read
49ers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.27Steelers: −0.27 expected points added per play
−0.1249ers: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.24Steelers: −0.24 expected points added per play
+0.1149ers: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.33Steelers: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.3249ers: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 51 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against 49ers’s 72 at 46%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 3, 49ers 7.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.27.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · +5.0 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
49ers15.2%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.07× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was SF's pass rate over expected, -12.1 pts against a season mean of -5.9 pts — and SF swings 6.8 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Conner right−33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:36) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner right end to PIT 22 for -2 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), touched at PIT 22, RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at PIT 24. 99-D.Buckner to PIT 24 for no gain (81-Z.Gentry). 2-yds of loose ball yardage
Q4 5:36 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 24 · lost 2 · -4.83 EP · −33.0% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 82 yards from the PIT 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
40%
Yards
675
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.2752%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR37+0.0832%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25-0.1772%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.2878%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.2517%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
49ers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 42
Steelers349ers0
Field goal4 plays, from the 49ers 33 to the 49ers 28
Punt11 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Steelers 48
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 25
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Steelers649ers0
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 8
The period ended6 plays, from the 49ers 31 to the Steelers 28
2nd quarter43 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 9 to the Steelers 24
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the Steelers 7
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 7 to the Steelers 8
Steelers649ers3
Field goal10 plays, from the Steelers 49 to the Steelers 6
Punt14 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the 49ers 36
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 37
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Steelers649ers9
Steelers649ers10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Steelers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Steelers 27
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Steelers1249ers10
Steelers1349ers10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Steelers 24
Steelers1349ers16
Steelers1349ers17
Touchdown12 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Steelers 4
The period ended4 plays
4th quarter45 plays
Punt2 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 34
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 28
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Steelers1949ers17
Steelers2049ers17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the 49ers 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Steelers 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Steelers 24
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Steelers2049ers23
Steelers2049ers24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 24 to the Steelers 5
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Steelers 22 to the Steelers 29
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
49ers -6
Closing total
44.5
Steelers moneyline
+239
49ers moneyline
-276
49ers closed -6, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 83°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Steelers 7 days · 49ers 7 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Kyle Shanahan
(11:29) 10-J.Garoppolo FUMBLES (Aborted) at PIT 7, RECOVERED by PIT-55-D.Bush at PIT 7. 55-D.Bush to PIT 7 for no gain (68-M.Person).
1st · 13:54PIT +14% win prob(13:54) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right intended for 22-M.Breida INTERCEPTED by 90-T.Watt at SF 40. 90-T.Watt to SF 33 for 7 yards (68-M.Person).
4th · 2:08SF +13% win prob(2:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 18-D.Pettis (20-C.Sutton). PIT-97-C.Heyward was injured during the play. PENALTY on PIT-26-M.Barron, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 14 - No Play.
Steelerscategory by category49ers
Steelers3
49ers0
