2019 Week 3 · Sun, Sep 22, 2019 · Levi's Stadium

Pittsburgh Steelers

San Francisco 49ersWinner

SF -6 no coverU 44.5 ✓49ers closed -6, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

San Francisco 49ers 24–20. Biggest swing: Q4 5:36, PIT +34% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 5:36PIT — SF PIT ball · 1st & 10PIT 70%

(5:36) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner right end to PIT 22 for -2 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), touched at PIT 22, RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at PIT 24. 99-D.Buckner to PIT 24 for no gain (81-Z.Gentry). 2-yds o

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 5:36PIT +34% win prob(5:36) (Shotgun) 30-J.Conner right end to PIT 22 for -2 yards (91-A.Armstead). FUMBLES (91-A.Armstead), touched at PIT 22, RECOVERED by SF-99-D.Buckner at PIT 24. 99-D.Buckner to PIT 24 for no gain (81-Z.Gentry). 2-yds of loose ball yardage
Q4 · 6:53PIT +27% win prob(6:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo Aborted. 13-R.James Jr. FUMBLES at PIT 11, RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 14. 90-T.Watt to PIT 14 for no gain (13-R.James Jr.).
Q3 · 5:54SF +25% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 19-J.Smith-Schuster for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at PIT 35. 65-yac
Q4 · 10:28SF +20% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass deep left to 18-D.Johnson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 2. 2-yac

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	49ers
Offensive plays	51	72
Total yards	239	437 (edge)
Yards per play	4.7	6.1 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.27	-0.12 (edge)
Success rate	31%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	46%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.24	0.11 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	-0.32 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	2 (edge)	5

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.12 expected points added per play vs -0.27.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	4	17	1:13	Interception
2	PIT	SF 33	4	5	2:00	Turnover on downs
3	SF	SF 25	10	45	4:53	Punt
4	PIT	PIT 20	4	5	1:26	Punt
5	SF	SF 28	2	-1	0:44	Interception
6	PIT	SF 24	6	16	2:40	Turnover on downs
7	SF	SF 31	6	54	2:13	Fumble
8	PIT	PIT 9	5	15	1:45	Punt
9	SF	SF 38	4	38	1:41	Fumble
10	PIT	PIT 7	4	1	0:48	Punt
11	SF	PIT 49	9	53	3:52	Turnover on downs
12	PIT	PIT 25	13	34	5:55	Punt
13	SF	SF 20	2	0	0:50	End of half
14	PIT	PIT 25	5	12	1:41	Interception
15	SF	PIT 38	9	38	4:02	Touchdown
16	PIT	PIT 22	5	5	1:08	Punt
17	SF	SF 25	4	5	0:56	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 18	4	82	1:31	Touchdown
19	SF	SF 25	12	75	4:46	Touchdown
20	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	1:55	Punt
21	SF	SF 25	4	16	2:43	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 19	3	49	0:56	Touchdown
23	SF	SF 25	10	68	3:33	Fumble
24	PIT	PIT 14	3	8	1:20	Fumble
25	SF	PIT 24	8	29	4:14	Touchdown
26	PIT	PIT 22	5	-2	0:38	Turnover on downs
27	SF	PIT 20	1	0	0:37	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 82 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -6
Closing total: 44.5
PIT moneyline: +239
SF moneyline: -276

49ers closed -6, won by 4 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 44 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Levi's Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 79°F, wind 3 mph
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: PIT 7 days · SF 7 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Kyle Shanahan