2019 Week 3 · Thu, Sep 19, 2019 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Tennessee Titans
7
Jacksonville JaguarsWinner
20
Jacksonville Jaguars 20–7. Biggest swing: Q1 13:22, JAX +15% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(13:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-M.Orzech. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 16, RECOVERED by JAX-48-L.Jacobs at TEN 7. 48-L.Jacobs to TEN 7 for no gain (55-J.Brown). Penalty on TEN-21-M.Butle
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 13:22JAX +15% win prob(13:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-M.Orzech. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 16, RECOVERED by JAX-48-L.Jacobs at TEN 7. 48-L.Jacobs to TEN 7 for no gain (55-J.Brown). Penalty on TEN-21-M.Butler, Offensive Holding, declined.
- Q3 · 13:05JAX +11% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 19-T.Sharpe to JAX 15 for 47 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
- Q1 · 6:42JAX +9% win prob(6:42) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q3 · 11:31TEN +7% win prob(11:31) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at JAX 20 for -9 yards (93-C.Campbell).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Titans | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 75 | 49 |
| Total yards | 340 (edge) | 293 |
| Yards per play | 4.5 | 6.0 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | -0.11 | -0.09 (edge) |
| Success rate | 33% | 35% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 71% | 67% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.07 | 0.01 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.19 (edge) | -0.31 |
| Third downs | 8/17 (edge) | 2/11 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 5 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 20 (edge) | 10 |
| Sacks taken | 9 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JAX | JAX 25 | 5 | 19 | 1:53 | Punt | |
| 2 | JAX | TEN 7 | 2 | 7 | 0:05 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | TEN | TEN 25 | 7 | 14 | 2:54 | Punt | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 38 | 7 | 62 | 3:32 | Touchdown | |
| 5 | TEN | TEN 26 | 7 | 28 | 3:09 | Punt | |
| 6 | JAX | JAX 15 | 4 | 0 | 1:53 | Punt | |
| 7 | TEN | TEN 44 | 6 | 20 | 2:18 | Punt | |
| 8 | JAX | JAX 15 | 6 | 17 | 2:47 | Punt | |
| 9 | TEN | TEN 33 | 4 | 4 | 0:54 | Punt | |
| 10 | JAX | JAX 20 | 4 | 14 | 2:37 | Punt | |
| 11 | TEN | TEN 21 | 11 | 42 | 6:07 | Punt | |
| 12 | JAX | JAX 5 | 4 | 6 | 0:37 | Punt | |
| 13 | TEN | JAX 44 | 4 | 0 | 0:29 | Punt | |
| 14 | JAX | JAX 10 | 4 | 14 | 0:45 | End of half | |
| 15 | TEN | TEN 25 | 10 | 55 | 3:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | JAX | JAX 20 | 7 | 58 | 3:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 17 | TEN | TEN 25 | 13 | 28 | 6:51 | Punt | |
| 18 | JAX | JAX 20 | 4 | 3 | 1:17 | Punt | |
| 19 | TEN | TEN 34 | 8 | 65 | 2:42 | Touchdown | |
| 20 | JAX | JAX 25 | 10 | 19 | 4:30 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | TEN | TEN 25 | 7 | 3 | 2:56 | Punt | |
| 22 | JAX | JAX 22 | 5 | 74 | 1:15 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | TEN | TEN 4 | 12 | 81 | 3:23 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 81 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a end of game.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- TEN -1.5
- Closing total
- 38
- TEN moneyline
- -125
- JAX moneyline
- +113
Titans closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38; the game landed 27 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- TIAA Bank Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 73°F, wind 9 mph
- Referee
- Shawn Hochuli
- Rest
- TEN 4 days · JAX 4 days
- Coaches
- Mike Vrabel vs Doug Marrone
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.