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Tennessee Titans 7 at Jacksonville Jaguars 20. Final.
Titans -1.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 3
Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Titans 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 13:22, 4th and 1 — 15.3 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:22 · 4th and 1
Unnamed on the sheet
Jaguars
(13:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-M.Orzech. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 16, RECOVERED by JAX-48-L.Jacobs at TEN 7. 48-L.Jacobs to TEN 7 for no gain (55-J.Brown). Penalty on TEN-21-M.Butler, Offensive Holding, declined.
U 38 ✓
Titans closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 20–7. Biggest swing: Q1 13:22, Jaguars +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
D.CharkJaguarsQ1 6:42(6:42) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.8pts
T.SharpeTitansQ3 13:05(13:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 19-T.Sharpe to JAX 15 for 47 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
10.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 8 of 17 on third down, against Jaguars at 2 of 11 on third down.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 5 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Titans owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Jaguars at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Titans owned this one and still lost it — -0.19 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Titans163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(13:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-M.Orzech. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 16, RECOVERED by JAX-48-L.Jacobs at TEN 7. 48-L.Jacobs to TEN 7 for no gain (55-J.Brown). Penalty on TEN-21-M.Butle
Swing +15.3 for JaguarsExpected points +5.64 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 9 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:22JAX +15% win prob(13:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-M.Orzech. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 16, RECOVERED by JAX-48-L.Jacobs at TEN 7. 48-L.Jacobs to TEN 7 for no gain (55-J.Brown). Penalty on TEN-21-M.Butler, Offensive Holding, declined.
3rd · 13:05JAX +11% win prob(13:05) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 19-T.Sharpe to JAX 15 for 47 yards (20-J.Ramsey).
1st · 6:42JAX +9% win prob(6:42) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 17-D.Chark for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 11:31TEN +7% win prob(11:31) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at JAX 20 for -9 yards (93-C.Campbell).
1st · 8:42JAX +6% win prob(8:42) 15-G.Minshew pass deep right to 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at TEN 23 for 28 yards (31-K.Byard).
1st · 1:34JAX +6% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 10-A.Humphries pushed ob at JAX 26 for 30 yards (56-Q.Williams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.O'Shaughnessy's 7-yard touchdown catch with 13:07 left in the 1st put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st13:07J.O'Shaughnessy·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom G.Minshewfrom G.MinshewLead never changed again+70–7
4th7:38J.Lambo·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.Orzech+37–20
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryJaguars
Titans4–3Jaguars
340Total yards293
4.5Yards per play6.0
33%Success rate35%
47%Third-down rate18%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays5
20First downs10
9Sacks taken0
0Turnovers0
The read
Titans ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.11Titans: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.09Jaguars: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.07Titans: −0.07 expected points added per play
+0.01Jaguars: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Titans: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.31Jaguars: −0.31 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 75 snaps at a 71% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 49 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Titans 2, Jaguars 3.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.2 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−1.13× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Jaguars24.5%
inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 12.4 pts, 11.6 points above their season mean of 0.8 pts and 1.6 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Cooke punts+17% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:22) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to TEN 16, Center-46-M.Orzech. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 16, RECOVERED by JAX-48-L.Jacobs at TEN 7. 48-L.Jacobs to TEN 7 for no gain (55-J.Brown). Penalty on TEN-21-M.Butler, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 13:22 · Jaguars · 4th & 1 at JAX 34 · gained nothing · +5.64 EP · +17.0% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 81 yards from the TEN 4 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
32%
Yards
632
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0478%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.2382%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.3342%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1327%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6-0.8083%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 34
Titans0Jaguars6
Titans0Jaguars7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 35
Titans0Jaguars13
Titans0Jaguars14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 38 to the Titans 22
Punt7 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Jaguars 46
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 17
The period ended5 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Jaguars 26
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 15 to the Jaguars 47
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 33 to the Titans 37
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 24
Punt14 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 46
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 5 to the Jaguars 11
Punt5 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 10 to the Jaguars 24
3rd quarter33 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 11
Titans0Jaguars17
Field goal7 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Titans 22
Punt13 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 39
The period ended3 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 23
4th quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
Titans6Jaguars17
Titans7Jaguars17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Jaguars 1
Titans7Jaguars20
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 30
Punt8 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 40
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Titans 4
Drive ended5 plays, from the Titans 4 to the Titans 38
The period ended1 play
The period ended8 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Jaguars 37
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Titans -1.5
Closing total
38
Titans moneyline
-125
Jaguars moneyline
+113
Titans closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38; the game landed 27 — under by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 75°F at kickoff; breezy at 14 mph out of the north-east; 0.03 in of precipitation; light drizzle.
Referee
Shawn Hochuli
Rest
Titans 4 days · Jaguars 4 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Doug Marrone
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 11:13JAX +5% win prob(11:13) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete deep left to 12-D.Westbrook. PENALTY on TEN-26-L.Ryan, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at JAX 29 - No Play.
1st · 13:50JAX +5% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short right to 18-C.Conley pushed ob at JAX 34 for 15 yards (25-A.Jackson).
Titanscategory by categoryJaguars
Titans0
Jaguars6
