2019 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2019 · NRG Stadium

Carolina PanthersWinner

Houston Texans

HOU -5.5 upsetU 47.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Carolina Panthers 16–10. Biggest swing: Q3 10:34, CAR +21% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 10:34CAR — HOU CAR ball · 2nd & 8CAR 68%

(10:34) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 25 for -9 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), RECOVERED by HOU-99-J.Watt at CAR 18. 99-J.Watt to CAR 18 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 10:34CAR +21% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 25 for -9 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), RECOVERED by HOU-99-J.Watt at CAR 18. 99-J.Watt to CAR 18 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
Q4 · 4:11CAR +21% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 29 for -7 yards (92-V.Butler). FUMBLES (92-V.Butler) [92-V.Butler], RECOVERED by CAR-25-E.Reid at HOU 33. 25-E.Reid to HOU 33 for no gain (25-D.Johnson).
Q2 · 2:31CAR +16% win prob(2:31) 10-D.Hopkins pass short right intended for 23-C.Hyde INTERCEPTED by 47-R.Cockrell at CAR 9. 47-R.Cockrell to CAR 46 for 37 yards (74-M.Scharping).
Q2 · 4:27CAR +13% win prob(4:27) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at HOU 45 for -11 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus) [59-W.Mercilus], touched at HOU 47, RECOVERED by HOU-91-C.Watkins at CAR 46. 91-C.Watkins to CAR 46 for no gain (73-G.Van Roten).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Texans
Offensive plays	65	61
Total yards	297 (edge)	264
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	-0.21 (edge)	-0.30
Success rate	38% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	57%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.20 (edge)	-0.58
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.21	0.28 (edge)
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	5
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	15
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	6
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Panthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.30.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 14	6	26	2:56	Fumble
2	HOU	HOU 19	12	16	7:09	Punt
3	CAR	CAR 41	6	29	2:32	Turnover on downs
4	HOU	HOU 25	10	41	3:48	Turnover on downs
5	CAR	CAR 42	4	6	1:01	Punt
6	HOU	HOU 15	10	76	4:35	Turnover on downs
7	CAR	CAR 29	8	24	3:41	Fumble
8	HOU	CAR 46	4	28	2:02	Interception
9	CAR	CAR 46	6	54	1:08	Touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 25	5	7	0:29	Punt
11	CAR	CAR 10	5	21	0:35	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 40	1	12	0:04	End of half
13	HOU	HOU 25	7	19	2:38	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 21	4	-3	1:55	Fumble
15	HOU	CAR 18	5	18	1:48	Touchdown
16	CAR	CAR 25	10	33	3:39	Punt
17	HOU	HOU 10	4	5	1:20	Punt
18	CAR	CAR 21	9	37	3:50	Turnover on downs
19	HOU	HOU 25	5	-4	2:03	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 13	11	40	5:44	Punt
21	HOU	HOU 10	6	18	2:58	Fumble
22	CAR	HOU 33	7	30	3:37	Turnover on downs
23	HOU	HOU 25	6	28	0:28	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 76 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a turnover on downs.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -5.5
Closing total: 47.5
CAR moneyline: +224
HOU moneyline: -257

Texans closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 26 — under by 21.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: CAR 7 days · HOU 7 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Bill O'Brien