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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 16, Texans 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 10:34, 2nd and 8, on K.Allen — 21.1 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 10:34 · 2nd and 8
K.Allen
Texans
(10:34) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 25 for -9 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), RECOVERED by HOU-99-J.Watt at CAR 18. 99-J.Watt to CAR 18 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
Dome
Texans closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Carolina Panthers 16–10. Biggest swing: Q3 10:34, Texans +21.1% win probability on one snap.
21.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
R.CockrellPanthersQ2 2:31(2:31) 10-D.Hopkins pass short right intended for 23-C.Hyde INTERCEPTED by 47-R.Cockrell at CAR 9. 47-R.Cockrell to CAR 46 for 37 yards (74-M.Scharping).
16.2pts
D.WatsonPanthersQ4 4:11(4:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 29 for -7 yards (92-V.Butler). FUMBLES (92-V.Butler) [92-V.Butler], RECOVERED by CAR-25-E.Reid at HOU 33. 25-E.Reid to HOU 33 for no gain (25-D.Johnson).
21.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Texans owned this one and still lost it — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Panthers won this one — -0.20 expected points per dropback, against Texans at -0.58 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Panthers won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Texans at 4 of 11 on third down.
Panthersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Panthers at 3 giveaways.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Panthers164 of 175 plays carry both curves
(10:34) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 25 for -9 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), RECOVERED by HOU-99-J.Watt at CAR 18. 99-J.Watt to CAR 18 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
Swing +21.1 for TexansExpected points +5.79 for TexansThe model had Panthers 7 points higher than the market did.play 100
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 10:34CAR +21% win prob(10:34) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at CAR 25 for -9 yards (99-J.Watt). FUMBLES (99-J.Watt), RECOVERED by HOU-99-J.Watt at CAR 18. 99-J.Watt to CAR 18 for no gain (22-C.McCaffrey).
4th · 4:11CAR +21% win prob(4:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 29 for -7 yards (92-V.Butler). FUMBLES (92-V.Butler) [92-V.Butler], RECOVERED by CAR-25-E.Reid at HOU 33. 25-E.Reid to HOU 33 for no gain (25-D.Johnson).
2nd · 2:31CAR +16% win prob(2:31) 10-D.Hopkins pass short right intended for 23-C.Hyde INTERCEPTED by 47-R.Cockrell at CAR 9. 47-R.Cockrell to CAR 46 for 37 yards (74-M.Scharping).
2nd · 4:27CAR +13% win prob(4:27) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at HOU 45 for -11 yards (59-W.Mercilus). FUMBLES (59-W.Mercilus) [59-W.Mercilus], touched at HOU 47, RECOVERED by HOU-91-C.Watkins at CAR 46. 91-C.Watkins to CAR 46 for no gain (73-G.Van Roten).
1st · 12:13CAR +12% win prob(12:13) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen sacked at HOU 26 for -2 yards (57-B.Scarlett). FUMBLES (57-B.Scarlett) [57-B.Scarlett], RECOVERED by HOU-55-B.McKinney at HOU 18. 55-B.McKinney to HOU 19 for 1 yard (10-C.Samuel).
1st · 12:20
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Slye's 55-yard field goal with 14:55 left in the 4th put Carolina Panthers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st2:28J.Slye·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+33–0
2nd8:03K.Fairbairn·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+33–3
4th14:55J.Slye·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.JansenLead never changed again+313–10
4th0:31J.Slye·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder M.Palardy · snap J.Jansen+316–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryTexans
Panthers6–1Texans
297Total yards264
4.6Yards per play4.3
38%Success rate38%
50%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays5
18First downs15
3Sacks taken6
3Turnovers2
The read
Panthers ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.21Panthers: −0.21 expected points added per play
−0.30Texans: −0.30 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Panthers: −0.20 expected points added per play
−0.58Texans: −0.58 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.21Panthers: −0.21 expected points added per play
+0.28Texans: +0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 65 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Texans’s 61 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 2, Texans 3.
NotePanthers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.30.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 15 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.2 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.68× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Texans16.2%
right on their number · +3.0 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 51.0 points below their season mean of 51.0% and 1.3 times their own 40.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Hopkins pass−18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(2:31) 10-D.Hopkins pass short right intended for 23-C.Hyde INTERCEPTED by 47-R.Cockrell at CAR 9. 47-R.Cockrell to CAR 46 for 37 yards (74-M.Scharping).
Q2 2:31 · Texans · 2nd & 4 at CAR 18 · gained nothing · -6.88 EP · −18.2% win probability
162 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 175 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 175 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 66 yards from the HOU 15 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
175 of 175 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
175
EPA per play
-0.15
Success rate
36%
Yards
561
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0858%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.3268%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.7745%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10-0.7440%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1978%
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.2857%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
175 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
175 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Texans 24
Punt13 plays, from the Texans 19 to the Panthers 47
Panthers3Texans0
Field goal6 plays, from the Panthers 41 to the Texans 30
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 48
2nd quarter54 plays
No good4 plays, from the Panthers 38 to the Panthers 34
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 42 to the Panthers 48
Panthers3Texans3
Field goal13 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Panthers 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Panthers 29 to the Texans 34
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Panthers 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Panthers9Texans3
Panthers10Texans3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Texans 3
Punt6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 32
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 31
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 34
Panthers10Texans9
Panthers10Texans10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Panthers 1
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Texans 42
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 15
The period ended10 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Texans 38
4th quarter44 plays
Panthers13Texans10
Field goal2 plays
Punt6 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Texans 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Texans 10 to the Texans 36
Panthers16Texans10
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 33 to the Texans 8
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.1 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Panthers 47
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -5.5
Closing total
47.5
Panthers moneyline
+224
Texans moneyline
-257
Texans closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 26 — under by 21.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Adrian Hill
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Texans 7 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Bill O'Brien
HOU +11% win prob
(12:20) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 10-C.Samuel (32-L.Johnson). PENALTY on HOU-32-L.Johnson, Defensive Pass Interference, 36 yards, enforced at CAR 40 - No Play.
2nd · 1:57HOU +10% win prob(1:57) (Shotgun) 7-K.Allen pass deep right to 13-J.Wright to HOU 21 for 27 yards (39-T.Gipson).
4th · 0:04CAR +9% win prob(:04) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete deep left (25-E.Reid) [53-B.Burns].
