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Cincinnati Bengals 3 at Pittsburgh Steelers 27. Final.
Steelers -3.5 ✓U 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 4
Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Bengals 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 10:39, 3rd and 2, on J.Conner — 14.3 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 10:39 · 3rd and 2
J.Conner
Steelers
(10:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 30-J.Conner for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.3
Steelers closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 24.
Pittsburgh Steelers 27–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 10:39, Steelers +14.3% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.ConnerBengalsQ1 4:06(4:06) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 30-J.Conner up the middle to CIN 42 for no gain (40-B.Wilson, 94-S.Hubbard).
11.2pts
A.DaltonSteelersQ2 5:54(5:54) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at PIT 26 for -8 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 29. 90-T.Watt to PIT 29 for no gain (71-A.Smith).
14.2pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — +0.42 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.57 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.39 expected points per snap.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bengals owned this one and still lost it — +0.07 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.36 expected points per carry.
Bengalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Bengals153 of 161 plays carry both curves
(10:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 30-J.Conner for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.3 for SteelersExpected points +3.07 for SteelersModel and market agree here.play 51
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 10:39PIT +14% win prob(10:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short right to 30-J.Conner for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:54CIN +14% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at PIT 26 for -8 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 29. 90-T.Watt to PIT 29 for no gain (71-A.Smith).
1st · 4:06CIN +11% win prob(4:06) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 30-J.Conner up the middle to CIN 42 for no gain (40-B.Wilson, 94-S.Hubbard).
1st · 9:27CIN +10% win prob(9:27) (Shotgun) 2-M.Rudolph pass short left to 18-D.Johnson to PIT 15 for 3 yards (59-N.Vigil). FUMBLES (59-N.Vigil), RECOVERED by CIN-30-J.Bates III at PIT 15. 30-J.Bates III to PIT 15 for no gain (53-M.Pouncey).
2nd · 13:19PIT +9% win prob(13:19) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to CIN 46, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.
2nd · 1:48CIN +8% win prob(1:48) 38-J.Samuels left guard to CIN 11 for -5 yards (59-N.Vigil).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Conner's 21-yard touchdown catch with 10:39 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:25R.Bullock·28-yd field goal28-yard field goalholder K.Huber · snap C.Harris+33–0
2nd10:39J.Conner·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom M.Rudolphfrom M.RudolphLead never changed again+73–7
2nd1:01C.Boswell·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+33–10
4th5:56C.Boswell·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+33–27
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categorySteelers
Bengals0–9Steelers
175Total yards329
2.7Yards per play6.2
33%Success rate55%
29%Third-down rate38%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays6
14First downs17
8Sacks taken0
2Turnovers1
The read
Steelers ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.39Bengals: −0.39 expected points added per play
+0.09Steelers: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.57Bengals: −0.57 expected points added per play
+0.42Steelers: +0.42 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.07Bengals: +0.07 expected points added per play
−0.36Steelers: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 64 snaps at a 72% dropback rate against Steelers’s 53 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Steelers 4.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
CIN's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 2.9 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.0-swing turn from week 3.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -26 pts to 22 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −15.4 vs their 15.4%, and they swing ±9.5 week to week (−1.61× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Steelers23.9%
inside their normal wobble · +4.7 vs their 19.2%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.78× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCIN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 15.4 points below their season mean of 15.4% and 1.6 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton sacked−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(5:54) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at PIT 26 for -8 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree], RECOVERED by PIT-90-T.Watt at PIT 29. 90-T.Watt to PIT 29 for no gain (71-A.Smith).
Q2 5:54 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at PIT 18 · lost 11 · -5.66 EP · −18.5% win probability
151 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 161 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 161 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 75 yards from the PIT 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
161 of 161 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
161
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
37%
Yards
501
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.3272%
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1460%
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR8+0.2150%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Bengals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bengals0 RB, 4 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
161 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
161 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Steelers 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Bengals3Steelers0
Field goal4 plays, from the Steelers 15 to the Steelers 10
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bengals 42
Punt4 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 47
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Bengals 48 to the Bengals 47
Punt5 plays
Bengals3Steelers6
Bengals3Steelers7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bengals 46 to the Bengals 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost11 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 18
Bengals3Steelers10
Field goal14 plays, from the Steelers 29 to the Bengals 6
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 39
3rd quarter41 plays
Bengals3Steelers16
Bengals3Steelers17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Bengals 2
Punt5 plays
Bengals3Steelers23
Bengals3Steelers24
Touchdown3 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 31 to the Steelers 38
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 49
4th quarter38 plays
Intercepted11 plays, from the Bengals 49 to the Steelers 8
Bengals3Steelers27
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Bengals 27
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Steelers 48
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
