2019 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium
Cleveland BrownsWinner
40
Baltimore Ravens
25
Cleveland Browns 40–25. Biggest swing: Q4 9:47, BAL +17% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(9:47) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 9:47BAL +17% win prob(9:47) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q2 · 5:42CLE +16% win prob(5:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Canady at BAL 39. 26-M.Canady to BAL 42 for 3 yards (86-P.Brown).
- Q3 · 6:20CLE +16% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram up the middle to CLE 26 for 6 yards (35-J.Whitehead, 53-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (35-J.Whitehead), RECOVERED by CLE-92-C.Thomas at CLE 26. 92-C.Thomas to CLE 26 for no gain (21-M.Ingram).
- Q2 · 1:46BAL +14% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 80-J.Landry to BAL 22 for 65 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Browns | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 61 | 67 |
| Total yards | 531 (edge) | 398 |
| Yards per play | 8.7 (edge) | 5.9 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.39 (edge) | 0.01 |
| Success rate | 44% | 54% (edge) |
| Dropback rate | 56% | 58% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.40 (edge) | -0.02 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.37 (edge) | 0.05 |
| Third downs | 6/13 (edge) | 4/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 8 (edge) | 6 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 21 | 24 (edge) |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 4 |
| Turnovers | 1 (edge) | 3 |
Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CLE | CLE 25 | 5 | -1 | 1:28 | Punt | |
| 2 | BAL | BAL 35 | 4 | 2 | 2:11 | Punt | |
| 3 | CLE | CLE 16 | 14 | 99 | 8:31 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | BAL | BAL 21 | 9 | 26 | 2:57 | Punt | |
| 5 | CLE | CLE 10 | 6 | 22 | 3:21 | Punt | |
| 6 | BAL | BAL 36 | 7 | 14 | 3:13 | Punt | |
| 7 | CLE | CLE 9 | 6 | 43 | 2:44 | Interception | |
| 8 | BAL | BAL 42 | 8 | 61 | 3:40 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | CLE | CLE 13 | 11 | 76 | 1:47 | Turnover on downs | |
| 10 | BAL | BAL 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:08 | End of half | |
| 11 | BAL | BAL 15 | 9 | 57 | 3:45 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | CLE | CLE 25 | 5 | 75 | 1:34 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | BAL | BAL 25 | 8 | 49 | 3:30 | Fumble | |
| 14 | CLE | CLE 26 | 9 | 84 | 5:18 | Touchdown | |
| 15 | BAL | BAL 25 | 16 | 77 | 6:02 | Touchdown | |
| 16 | CLE | CLE 17 | 3 | 88 | 0:16 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | BAL | BAL 24 | 5 | 7 | 1:20 | Turnover on downs | |
| 18 | CLE | BAL 31 | 4 | 6 | 1:19 | Turnover on downs | |
| 19 | BAL | BAL 25 | 5 | 21 | 1:04 | Interception | |
| 20 | CLE | CLE 20 | 4 | 0 | 0:22 | Punt | |
| 21 | BAL | BAL 40 | 2 | 0 | 0:09 | Interception | |
| 22 | CLE | BAL 39 | 7 | 39 | 3:07 | Touchdown | |
| 23 | BAL | BAL 21 | 7 | 84 | 1:44 | Touchdown | |
| 24 | CLE | CLE 23 | 2 | 0 | 0:30 | End of game |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 99 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- BAL -7.5
- Closing total
- 47
- CLE moneyline
- +279
- BAL moneyline
- -327
Ravens closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47; the game landed 65 — over by 18.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- M&T Bank Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 83°F, wind 8 mph
- Referee
- Shawn Hochuli
- Rest
- CLE 7 days · BAL 7 days
- Coaches
- Freddie Kitchens vs John Harbaugh
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.