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Cleveland Browns 40 at Baltimore Ravens 25. Final.
Ravens -7.5 upsetO 47 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 4
Cleveland Browns 40, Ravens 25 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 9:47, 1st and 15, on N.Chubb — 17.0 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:47 · 1st and 15
N.Chubb
Browns
(9:47) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
17.0
Ravens closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 40–25. Biggest swing: Q4 9:47, Browns +17.0% win probability on one snap.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.CanadyRavensQ2 5:42(5:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Canady at BAL 39. 26-M.Canady to BAL 42 for 3 yards (86-P.Brown).
16.3pts
M.IngramBrownsQ3 6:20(6:20) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram up the middle to CLE 26 for 6 yards (35-J.Whitehead, 53-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (35-J.Whitehead), RECOVERED by CLE-92-C.Thomas at CLE 26. 92-C.Thomas to CLE 26 for no gain (21-M.Ingram).
16.0pts
What separated them
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Ravens at +0.01 expected points per snap.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Browns won this one — 1 giveaway, against Ravens at 3 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Browns won this one — +0.37 expected points per carry, against Ravens at +0.05 expected points per carry.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.40 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Browns169 of 178 plays carry both curves
(9:47) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −17.0 for RavensExpected points −7.18 for RavensThe model had Browns 7 points higher than the market did.play 135
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:47BAL +17% win prob(9:47) 24-N.Chubb right tackle for 88 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:42CLE +16% win prob(5:42) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 80-J.Landry INTERCEPTED by 26-M.Canady at BAL 39. 26-M.Canady to BAL 42 for 3 yards (86-P.Brown).
3rd · 6:20CLE +16% win prob(6:20) (Shotgun) 21-M.Ingram up the middle to CLE 26 for 6 yards (35-J.Whitehead, 53-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (35-J.Whitehead), RECOVERED by CLE-92-C.Thomas at CLE 26. 92-C.Thomas to CLE 26 for no gain (21-M.Ingram).
2nd · 1:46BAL +14% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 80-J.Landry to BAL 22 for 65 yards (23-T.Jefferson).
3rd · 10:33BAL +13% win prob(10:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 83-R.Seals-Jones pushed ob at BAL 14 for 59 yards (29-E.Thomas).
3rd · 9:49BAL +11% win prob(9:49) 24-N.Chubb right guard for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
N.Chubb's 14-yard rushing touchdown with 9:49 left in the 3rd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Browns ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.39Browns: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.01Ravens: +0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.40Browns: +0.40 expected points added per play
−0.02Ravens: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.37Browns: +0.37 expected points added per play
+0.05Ravens: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 61 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Ravens’s 67 at 58%. Red-zone trips: Browns 6, Ravens 3.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BAL's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, sat 14.7 points below their season number of 17.6% — they stayed blocked by 2.0 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 3.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 13 pts
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 14.1%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Ravens2.9%
off script — stayed blocked · −14.7 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−2.03× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 14.7 points below their season mean of 17.6% and 2.0 times their own 7.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jimmy SmithCBBrandon WilliamsDTBrynden TrawickFSBen PowersGTrace McSorleyQBJaleel ScottWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Robert Griffin IIIQBPatrick MekariT
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 83-R.Seals-Jones pushed ob at BAL 14 for 59 yards (29-E.Thomas).
Q3 10:33 · Browns · 2nd & 8 at CLE 27 · gained 59 · +4.55 EP · +16.4% win probability
167 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 88 yards from the CLE 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
44%
Yards
927
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0158%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35+0.1471%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.7033%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0563%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.0660%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 29
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 37
Browns6Ravens0
Browns7Ravens0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Ravens 9
The period ended7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 46
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt1 play
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Browns 32
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 36 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Ravens 48
Browns7Ravens6
Browns7Ravens7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Browns 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linebackers and six backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Browns10Ravens7
Field goal14 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Ravens 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Browns10Ravens10
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 15 to the Browns 23
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Browns16Ravens10
Browns17Ravens10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 14
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 32
Browns23Ravens10
Browns24Ravens10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Browns 26 to the Ravens 2
The period ended4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 40
4th quarter60 plays
Browns24Ravens16
Browns24Ravens18
Touchdown14 plays, from the Ravens 45 to the Browns 6
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Browns30Ravens18
Touchdown3 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Ravens 24 to the Ravens 31
Browns33Ravens18
Field goal5 plays, from the Ravens 31 to the Ravens 25
Intercepted5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 46
Punt6 plays
Intercepted2 plays
Browns39Ravens18
Browns40Ravens18
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 39 to the Ravens 1
Browns40Ravens24
Browns40Ravens25
Touchdown8 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Browns 45
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
