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2019 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
JaguarsJacksonville26
BY 2final margin
BroncosDenver24
Jacksonville Jaguars 26 at Denver Broncos 24. Final.
Broncos -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 4
Jacksonville Jaguars 26, Broncos 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:04, 3rd and 15, on J.Lambo — 26.4 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:04 · 3rd and 15
J.Lambo
Jaguars
(:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
26.4
O 37 ✓
15.9 mph wind
Broncos closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Jacksonville Jaguars 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, Jaguars +26.4% win probability on one snap. Played in 15.9 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
L.FournetteJaguarsQ3 2:57(2:57) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to DEN 12 for 81 yards (20-D.Dawson).
21.4pts
D.WestbrookJaguarsQ4 1:18(1:18) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at DEN 27 for 32 yards (20-D.Dawson).
18.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Jaguars won this one — +0.25 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Jaguars won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Broncos at 7 chunk plays.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 1 giveaway.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Jaguars won this one — +0.17 expected points per snap, against Broncos at +0.04 expected points per snap.
Jaguarsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Jaguars177 of 188 plays carry both curves
(:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Swing −26.4 for BroncosExpected points −0.20 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 7 points higher than the market did.play 187
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:04DEN +26% win prob(:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
3rd · 2:57DEN +21% win prob(2:57) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to DEN 12 for 81 yards (20-D.Dawson).
4th · 1:18DEN +19% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at DEN 27 for 32 yards (20-D.Dawson).
4th · 1:46DEN +16% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 10-E.Sanders ran ob at JAX 8 for 27 yards (36-R.Harrison).
4th · 1:38DEN +12% win prob(1:38) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:16DEN +11% win prob(1:16) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short middle to 80-J.O'Shaughnessy for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:03
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Lambo's 33-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put Jacksonville Jaguars ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:04J.Lambo·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap M.OrzechLead never changed again+326–24
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryBroncos
Jaguars5–3Broncos
455Total yards372
6.0Yards per play7.0
43%Success rate42%
29%Third-down rate36%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
10Explosive plays7
23First downs17
5Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Jaguars ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.17Jaguars: +0.17 expected points added per play
+0.04Broncos: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.08Jaguars: +0.08 expected points added per play
+0.12Broncos: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.25Jaguars: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.16Broncos: −0.16 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 76 snaps at a 50% dropback rate against Broncos’s 53 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 5, Broncos 4.
NoteJaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's sack or hit rate, 31.6%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 7.4 points clear of the next team along.
2.3 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 3.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.1 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
JAX's pass rate over expected, −13.8 pts, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 6.1 points clear of the next team along.
A 3.5-swing turn from week 3.
76 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
DEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 41.8% in week 3 against 69.0% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
JAX's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.5% in week 3 against 7.9% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
38 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
DEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.9 pts in week 3 against +6.7 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
53 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 20 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.2 vs their 18.1%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−1.56× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Broncos31.6%
off script — got home · +18.6 vs their 13.0%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+2.31× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 31.6%, 18.6 points above their season mean of 13.0% and 2.3 times their own 8.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Jacksonville Jaguars
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
68Andrew NorwellG · Every snap100%85 snaps
75Jawaan TaylorT · Every snap100%85 snaps
65Brandon LinderC · Every snap100%85 snaps
15Gardner MinshewQB · Every snap100%85 snaps
74Cam RobinsonT · Every snap100%85 snaps
27Leonard FournetteRB · Full-time84%71 snaps
18Chris ConleyWR · Heavy rotation78%66 snaps
17D.J. CharkWR · Heavy rotation73%62 snaps
12Dede WestbrookWR · Heavy rotation62%53 snaps
80James O'ShaughnessyTE · Heavy rotation59%50 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Lambo+33% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q4 0:04 · Jaguars · 3rd & goal at DEN 15 · gained nothing · +0.20 EP · +33.5% win probability
175 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was JAX moving 93 yards from the JAX 7 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
41%
Yards
826
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0971%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32-0.1172%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18+0.4928%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.4375%
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.000%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.1071%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 22 to the Jaguars 39
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 1 to the Jaguars 7
Jaguars0Broncos6
Jaguars0Broncos7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Broncos 47 to the Jaguars 25
Jaguars3Broncos7
Field goal11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Broncos 7
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 26 to the Broncos 30
Punt4 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 31 to the Broncos 34
2nd quarter56 plays
Jaguars3Broncos13
Jaguars3Broncos14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Broncos 49 to the Jaguars 7
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 37
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 7 to the Broncos 9
Punt5 plays, from the Jaguars 45 to midfield
Jaguars3Broncos17
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Jaguars 11
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 28
Intercepted6 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Jaguars 33
Jaguars6Broncos17
Field goal11 plays, from the Broncos 43 to the Broncos 18
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Jaguars12Broncos17
Jaguars13Broncos17
Touchdown20 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Broncos 7
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 20 to the Broncos 26
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Jaguars19Broncos17
Jaguars20Broncos17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Jaguars 7 to the Broncos 12
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 42
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter50 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 24 to the Jaguars 42
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Jaguars 42
Jaguars23Broncos17
Field goal16 plays, from the Jaguars 6 to the Broncos 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Jaguars23Broncos23
Jaguars23Broncos24
Touchdown8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Jaguars 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Jaguars26Broncos24
Field goal12 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Broncos 10
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
