2019 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2019 · Empower Field at Mile High
Jacksonville JaguarsWinner
26
Denver Broncos
24
Jacksonville Jaguars 26–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:04, DEN +26% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q4 · 0:04DEN +26% win prob(:04) 4-J.Lambo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Orzech, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
- Q3 · 2:57DEN +21% win prob(2:57) 27-L.Fournette left tackle to DEN 12 for 81 yards (20-D.Dawson).
- Q4 · 1:18DEN +19% win prob(1:18) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass deep left to 12-D.Westbrook pushed ob at DEN 27 for 32 yards (20-D.Dawson).
- Q4 · 1:46DEN +16% win prob(1:46) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 10-E.Sanders ran ob at JAX 8 for 27 yards (36-R.Harrison).
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Jaguars | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 76 | 53 |
| Total yards | 455 (edge) | 372 |
| Yards per play | 6.0 | 7.0 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.17 (edge) | 0.04 |
| Success rate | 43% (edge) | 42% |
| Dropback rate | 50% | 72% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.08 | 0.12 (edge) |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.25 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Third downs | 4/14 | 4/11 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 10 (edge) | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 (edge) | 17 |
| Sacks taken | 5 | 0 (edge) |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Jaguars won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DEN | DEN 22 | 9 | 39 | 3:54 | Punt | |
| 2 | JAX | JAX 1 | 4 | 6 | 1:59 | Punt | |
| 3 | DEN | DEN 47 | 3 | 53 | 0:50 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | JAX | JAX 25 | 11 | 68 | 5:04 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | DEN | DEN 26 | 5 | 4 | 1:00 | Punt | |
| 6 | JAX | JAX 31 | 4 | -7 | 1:02 | Punt | |
| 7 | DEN | DEN 31 | 7 | 69 | 2:32 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | JAX | JAX 25 | 6 | 12 | 1:44 | Punt | |
| 9 | DEN | DEN 7 | 4 | 2 | 0:55 | Punt | |
| 10 | JAX | JAX 45 | 4 | -2 | 2:17 | Punt | |
| 11 | DEN | DEN 36 | 11 | 62 | 4:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | JAX | JAX 25 | 5 | 7 | 1:55 | Punt | |
| 13 | DEN | DEN 24 | 6 | 28 | 1:32 | Interception | |
| 14 | JAX | DEN 43 | 7 | 31 | 0:41 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | DEN | DEN 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:08 | End of half | |
| 16 | JAX | JAX 25 | 18 | 80 | 10:24 | Touchdown | |
| 17 | DEN | DEN 20 | 5 | 6 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 18 | JAX | JAX 7 | 4 | 103 | 1:47 | Touchdown | |
| 19 | DEN | DEN 25 | 5 | 2 | 0:54 | Punt | |
| 20 | JAX | JAX 16 | 8 | 24 | 3:47 | Punt | |
| 21 | DEN | DEN 36 | 5 | 22 | 1:35 | Punt | |
| 22 | JAX | JAX 6 | 13 | 78 | 7:00 | Turnover on downs | |
| 23 | DEN | DEN 25 | 8 | 85 | 1:22 | Touchdown | |
| 24 | JAX | JAX 25 | 9 | 55 | 1:32 | Turnover on downs |
0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 103 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- DEN -2.5
- Closing total
- 37
- JAX moneyline
- +124
- DEN moneyline
- -137
Broncos closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 37; the game landed 50 — over by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Empower Field at Mile High
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 87°F, wind 14 mph
- Referee
- Ronald Torbert
- Rest
- JAX 10 days · DEN 7 days
- Coaches
- Doug Marrone vs Vic Fangio