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Kansas City Chiefs 34, Lions 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 9:31, 1st and 1, on K.Johnson — 40.0 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 9:31 · 1st and 1
K.Johnson
Chiefs
(9:31) 33-K.Johnson up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (98-X.Williams). FUMBLES (98-X.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-21-B.Breeland at KC 0. 21-B.Breeland for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Dome
Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 34–30. Biggest swing: Q3 9:31, Chiefs +40.0% win probability on one snap.
40.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.HallLionsQ4 3:19(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-M.Hall pushed ob at KC 9 for 34 yards (35-C.Ward).
19.6pts
D.WilliamsChiefsQ4 0:23(:23) (Shotgun) 31-D.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
19.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 11 chunk plays, against Chiefs at 7 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Chiefs won this one — -0.18 expected points per carry, against Lions at -0.40 expected points per carry.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chiefs won this one — +0.11 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.10 expected points per snap.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 2 giveaways, against Chiefs at 3 giveaways.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 22.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Chiefs182 of 192 plays carry both curves
(9:31) 33-K.Johnson up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (98-X.Williams). FUMBLES (98-X.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-21-B.Breeland at KC 0. 21-B.Breeland for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble rulin
Swing −40.0 for LionsExpected points −13.58 for LionsThe model had Lions 20 points higher than the market did.play 106
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 9:31KC +40% win prob(9:31) 33-K.Johnson up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (98-X.Williams). FUMBLES (98-X.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-21-B.Breeland at KC 0. 21-B.Breeland for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 0:23DET +20% win prob(:23) (Shotgun) 31-D.Williams up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 3:19DET +20% win prob(3:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 17-M.Hall pushed ob at KC 9 for 34 yards (35-C.Ward).
3rd · 1:14DET +17% win prob(1:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 19-K.Golladay for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:55DET +16% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle to KC 49 for 15 yards (25-W.Harris).
4th · 1:32DET +14% win prob(1:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce pushed ob at DET 33 for 18 yards (21-T.Walker).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
D.Williams's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 0:23 left in the 4th put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st10:09M.Prater·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap D.Muhlbach+30–3
4th0:23D.Williams·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+734–30
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryLions
Chiefs3–4Lions
438Total yards447
6.5Yards per play6.1
45%Success rate48%
44%Third-down rate38%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays11
25First downs25
0Sacks taken4
3Turnovers2
The read
Lions ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chiefs, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.11Chiefs: +0.11 expected points added per play
−0.10Lions: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.23Chiefs: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.16Lions: +0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.18Chiefs: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.40Lions: −0.40 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 67 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Lions’s 73 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Lions 6.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.11 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 20 pts
right on their number · +2.2 vs their 15.3%, and they swing ±8.3 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Lions6.4%
inside their normal wobble · −4.4 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.1 week to week (−0.87× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was KC's pass rate over expected, 3.7 pts against a season mean of 7.8 pts — and KC swings 4.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
46 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
77Andrew WylieOT · Every snap100%68 snaps
71Mitchell SchwartzT · Every snap100%68 snaps
76Laurent Duvernay-TardifG · Every snap100%68 snaps
Darius SlayCBDa'Shawn HandDEMike DanielsDTBeau BenzschawelGPaul PerkinsRBOday AboushiTDanny AmendolaWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 3
Jeff DriskelQBDavid BloughQBRick WagnerT
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Johnson up−45% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:31) 33-K.Johnson up the middle to KC 1 for no gain (98-X.Williams). FUMBLES (98-X.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-21-B.Breeland at KC 0. 21-B.Breeland for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q3 9:31 · Lions · 1st & goal at KC 1 · gained nothing · -13.58 EP · −44.7% win probability
180 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 81 yards from the KC 14 for a field goal. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
45%
Yards
885
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0466%
Lions2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR26-0.4227%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.1377%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.6352%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.4838%
Lions0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Lions2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Chiefs0Lions3
Field goal12 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Chiefs 2
No good10 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Lions 18
Chiefs0Lions9
Chiefs0Lions10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Chiefs 5
The period ended10 plays, from the Chiefs 14 to the Lions 4
2nd quarter48 plays
Chiefs3Lions10
Field goal3 plays, from the Lions 7 to the Lions 5
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 41
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Chiefs 32
Punt6 plays, from the Lions 16 to the Lions 27
Chiefs9Lions10
Chiefs10Lions10
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 30 to the Lions 1
Chiefs10Lions13
Field goal11 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Chiefs 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Chiefs13Lions13
Field goal7 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Lions 26
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter45 plays
Fumble lost1 play
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chiefs 36 to the Chiefs 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chiefs 18 to the Chiefs 29
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chiefs19Lions13
Touchdown3 plays, from the Chiefs 28 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs20Lions13
Chiefs20Lions16
Field goal9 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Chiefs 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, five linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 40
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Chiefs20Lions22
Chiefs20Lions23
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chiefs 8
The period ended6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Lions 44
4th quarter57 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw5.0 seconds
Chiefs26Lions23
Chiefs27Lions23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Lions 1
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 48
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Chiefs 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Chiefs27Lions29
Chiefs27Lions30
Touchdown10 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Chiefs 6
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerThree
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chiefs33Lions30
Chiefs34Lions30
Touchdown18 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Lions 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and five backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Chiefs 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -7.5
Closing total
54.5
Chiefs moneyline
-364
Lions moneyline
+307
Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 4 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 54.5; the game landed 64 — over by 9.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Walt Anderson
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Matt Patricia
4th · 2:31DET +14% win prob(2:31) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 19-K.Golladay for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
3rd · 9:49DET +13% win prob(9:49) 41-J.McKissic up the middle pushed ob at KC 2 for 26 yards (35-C.Ward). PENALTY on KC-98-X.Williams, Face Mask (15 Yards), 1 yard, enforced at KC 2.
Chiefscategory by categoryLions
Chiefs0
Lions3
