2019 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
Los Angeles ChargersWinner
30
Miami Dolphins
10
Los Angeles Chargers 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:02, MIA +7% win probability on one snap. Played in 15 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
Win probability
(6:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 34-D.Watt pushed ob at MIA 49 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe). PENALTY on MIA-21-E.Rowe, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 49.
Highest-leverage plays
- Q1 · 6:02MIA +7% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 34-D.Watt pushed ob at MIA 49 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe). PENALTY on MIA-21-E.Rowe, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 49.
- Q2 · 11:59LAC +6% win prob(11:59) 19-J.Grant left end to LAC 12 for -2 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
- Q2 · 0:50MIA +6% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- Q1 · 12:18LAC +5% win prob(12:18) Direct snap to 5-T.Taylor. 5-T.Taylor right tackle to MIA 25 for 2 yards (96-T.Charlton; 52-R.McMillan). PENALTY on LAC-66-D.Feeney, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 25.
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
| Metric | Chargers | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 62 | 47 |
| Total yards | 393 (edge) | 233 |
| Yards per play | 6.3 (edge) | 5.0 |
| Expected points added / play | 0.29 (edge) | -0.13 |
| Success rate | 56% (edge) | 47% |
| Dropback rate | 52% | 62% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.67 (edge) | -0.16 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.12 | -0.07 (edge) |
| Third downs | 8/12 (edge) | 5/10 |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 4 | 4 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 22 (edge) | 11 |
| Sacks taken | 1 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 1 |
Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Possession by possession
Drive chart
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC | LAC 25 | 10 | 64 | 4:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 2 | MIA | MIA 25 | 8 | 80 | 3:40 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | LAC | LAC 25 | 9 | 60 | 3:47 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | MIA | MIA 21 | 13 | 57 | 6:35 | Turnover on downs | |
| 5 | LAC | LAC 9 | 10 | 50 | 5:05 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | MIA | LAC 48 | 7 | 16 | 2:31 | Turnover on downs | |
| 7 | LAC | LAC 40 | 9 | 60 | 2:51 | Touchdown | |
| 8 | MIA | MIA 22 | 8 | 44 | 0:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 9 | MIA | MIA 18 | 7 | 17 | 3:05 | Punt | |
| 10 | LAC | LAC 7 | 16 | 77 | 10:33 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | MIA | MIA 8 | 5 | -7 | 1:33 | Punt | |
| 12 | LAC | LAC 44 | 8 | 56 | 3:29 | Touchdown | |
| 13 | MIA | MIA 29 | 3 | 3 | 0:52 | Interception | |
| 14 | LAC | MIA 48 | 6 | 15 | 3:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 15 | MIA | MIA 25 | 9 | 23 | 3:25 | Turnover on downs | |
| 16 | LAC | MIA 48 | 6 | 11 | 3:56 | End of game |
0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 80 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.
Box score unavailable
Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
- Closing spread
- LAC -15
- Closing total
- 43.5
- LAC moneyline
- -806
- MIA moneyline
- +602
Chargers closed -15 and covered, winning by 20.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 40 — under by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
- Venue
- Hard Rock Stadium
- Roof / surface
- outdoors · grass
- Kickoff weather
- 88°F, wind 15 mph
- Referee
- Tony Corrente
- Rest
- LAC 7 days · MIA 7 days
- Coaches
- Anthony Lynn vs Brian Flores
Wind at 15 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.