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2019 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
ChargersLos Angeles30
BY 20final margin
DolphinsMiami10
Los Angeles Chargers 30 at Miami Dolphins 10. Final.
Chargers -15 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 4
Los Angeles Chargers 30, Dolphins 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:02, 2nd and 5, on D.Watt — 7.3 win-probability points to the Chargers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:02 · 2nd and 5
D.Watt
Chargers
(6:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 34-D.Watt pushed ob at MIA 49 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe). PENALTY on MIA-21-E.Rowe, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 49.
Chargers closed -15 and covered, winning by 20.
Los Angeles Chargers 30–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:02, Chargers +7.3% win probability on one snap.
7.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.GrantChargersQ2 11:59(11:59) 19-J.Grant left end to LAC 12 for -2 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
6.0pts
A.EkelerChargersQ2 0:50(:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
5.9pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Chargers won this one — +0.67 expected points per dropback, against Dolphins at -0.16 expected points per dropback.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Dolphins at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Chargers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Dolphins at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Chargers won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Dolphins at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 26.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 50 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Chargers144 of 156 plays carry both curves
(6:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 34-D.Watt pushed ob at MIA 49 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe). PENALTY on MIA-21-E.Rowe, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 49.
Swing −7.3 for DolphinsExpected points −2.62 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 48 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:02MIA +7% win prob(6:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 34-D.Watt pushed ob at MIA 49 for 21 yards (21-E.Rowe). PENALTY on MIA-21-E.Rowe, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 49.
2nd · 11:59LAC +6% win prob(11:59) 19-J.Grant left end to LAC 12 for -2 yards (23-R.Jenkins).
2nd · 0:50MIA +6% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 12:18LAC +5% win prob(12:18) Direct snap to 5-T.Taylor. 5-T.Taylor right tackle to MIA 25 for 2 yards (96-T.Charlton; 52-R.McMillan). PENALTY on LAC-66-D.Feeney, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 25.
1st · 6:39MIA +5% win prob(6:39) (Shotgun) 3-J.Rosen pass deep right to 11-D.Parker for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 15:00LAC +5% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right tackle to LAC 28 for 3 yards (52-R.McMillan; 56-D.Godchaux).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Ekeler's 18-yard touchdown catch with 0:50 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:17T.Long·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap C.Mazza+33–0
4th7:32T.Long·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder T.Taylor · snap C.Mazza+330–10
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryDolphins
Chargers8–0Dolphins
393Total yards233
6.3Yards per play5.0
56%Success rate47%
67%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
4Explosive plays4
22First downs11
1Sacks taken5
0Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.67 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Chargers: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.13Dolphins: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.67Chargers: +0.67 expected points added per play
−0.16Dolphins: −0.16 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.12Chargers: −0.12 expected points added per play
−0.07Dolphins: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 62 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 47 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Dolphins 2.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 6 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LAC's early-down pass rate turned over: 72.5% in week 3 against 44.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 23 pts
leaned — got home · +11.9 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±8.0 week to week (+1.49× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Dolphins9.4%
right on their number · −1.4 vs their 10.8%, and they swing ±5.2 week to week (−0.28× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 52.8%, 13.7 points below their season mean of 66.5% and 1.9 times their own 7.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
47 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
75Michael SchofieldG · Every snap100%67 snaps
78Trent ScottT · Full-time96%64 snaps
69Sam TeviT · Full-time91%61 snaps
53Mike PounceyC · Full-time91%61 snaps
17Philip RiversQB · Full-time91%61 snaps
66Dan FeeneyG · Full-time87%58 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time84%56 snaps
15Dontrelle InmanWR · Heavy rotation75%50 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Heavy rotation72%48 snaps
80Sean CulkinTE · Heavy rotation58%39 snaps
87Lance KendricksTE · Heavy rotation57%38 snaps
35Troymaine PopeRB · Rotational42%28 snaps
11Geremy DavisWR · Rotational40%27 snaps
16Andre PattonWR · Rotational36%24 snaps
34Derek WattFB · Rotational28%19 snaps
77Forrest LampOG · Rotational25%17 snaps
5Tyrod TaylorQB · Situational10%7 snaps
61Scott QuessenberryC · Situational9%6 snaps
79Trey PipkinsT · Situational9%6 snaps
Inactive · 6
Mike BadgleyKEaston StickQBJustin JacksonRBVirgil GreenTEHunter HenryTEMike WilliamsWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Sanders−9% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
Q2 0:03 · Dolphins · 3rd & 1 at LAC 34 · gained nothing · -1.84 EP · −9.2% win probability
142 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 156 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 156 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 75 yards from the MIA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
156 of 156 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
156
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
46%
Yards
623
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.0260%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR24-0.3067%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13+0.7346%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.2467%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.2950%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.0929%
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
156 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
156 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Chargers3Dolphins0
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Dolphins 21
Chargers3Dolphins6
Chargers3Dolphins7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chargers 34
Chargers9Dolphins7
Chargers10Dolphins7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Dolphins 13
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 21 to the Chargers 47
2nd quarter50 plays
Chargers10Dolphins10
Field goal11 plays, from the Chargers 43 to the Chargers 10
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Dolphins 37
No good7 plays, from the Chargers 48 to the Chargers 32
Chargers16Dolphins10
Chargers17Dolphins10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 40 to the Dolphins 18
No good10 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Chargers 34
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 40
Chargers20Dolphins10
Field goal19 plays, from the Chargers 7 to the Dolphins 18
The period ended5 plays
4th quarter37 plays
Punt1 play
Chargers26Dolphins10
Chargers27Dolphins10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Dolphins 1
Intercepted3 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Dolphins 32
Chargers30Dolphins10
Field goal6 plays, from the Dolphins 48 to the Dolphins 31
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chargers 47
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 48 to the Dolphins 37
2nd quarter1 plays
The period ended1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Chargerscategory by categoryDolphins
Chargers3
Dolphins0
