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Chicago Bears 16, Vikings 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 15:00, 1st and 10, on K.Cousins — 9.2 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 15:00 · 1st and 10
K.Cousins
Bears
(15:00) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 18 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-97-N.Williams at MIN 16. 97-N.Williams to MIN 16 for no gain (71-R.Reiff).
Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 16–6. Biggest swing: Q3 15:00, Bears +9.2% win probability on one snap.
9.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.DiggsBearsQ2 6:42(6:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 14-S.Diggs. Chicago challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to CHI 34 for 10 yards (20-P.Amukamara). FUMBLES (20-P.Amukamara), RECOVERED by CHI-21-H.Clinton-Dix at CHI 20.
8.5pts
A.MillerBearsQ2 2:02(2:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short middle to 17-A.Miller to MIN 29 for 5 yards (20-Mac.Alexander).
7.8pts
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Bears at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Bears won this one — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 3 giveaways.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Bears won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Vikings at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — -0.05 expected points per carry, against Bears at -0.32 expected points per carry.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Vikings156 of 168 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 18 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-97-N.Williams at MIN 16. 97-N.Williams to MIN 16 for no gain (71-R.Reiff).
Swing +9.2 for BearsExpected points +5.85 for BearsThe model had Bears 6 points higher than the market did.play 79
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 15:00MIN +9% win prob(15:00) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 18 for -7 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-97-N.Williams at MIN 16. 97-N.Williams to MIN 16 for no gain (71-R.Reiff).
2nd · 6:42MIN +9% win prob(6:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 14-S.Diggs. Chicago challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to CHI 34 for 10 yards (20-P.Amukamara). FUMBLES (20-P.Amukamara), RECOVERED by CHI-21-H.Clinton-Dix at CHI 20.
2nd · 2:02CHI +8% win prob(2:02) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short middle to 17-A.Miller to MIN 29 for 5 yards (20-Mac.Alexander).
1st · 6:54CHI +7% win prob(6:54) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 33-D.Cook to MIN 40 for 13 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix).
1st · 8:52CHI +7% win prob(8:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass deep left to 12-A.Robinson pushed ob at MIN 5 for 25 yards (21-M.Hughes).
2nd · 4:05CHI +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Cohen's 10-yard touchdown catch with 7:50 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:50T.Cohen·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom C.Danielfrom C.DanielLead never changed again+70–7
2nd0:04E.Pineiro·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+30–10
3rd12:52E.Pineiro·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+30–13
3rd3:07E.Pineiro·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+30–16
4th3:02D.Cook·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+66–16
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryBears
Vikings1–6Bears
222Total yards269
3.8Yards per play4.0
31%Success rate34%
38%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
2Explosive plays2
14First downs15
6Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Bears ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.26Vikings: −0.26 expected points added per play
−0.06Bears: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.33Vikings: −0.33 expected points added per play
+0.17Bears: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Vikings: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.32Bears: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 59 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Bears’s 67 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 1, Bears 4.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.06 expected points added per play vs -0.26.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIN's early-down pass rate turned over: 33.3% in week 3 against 67.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30 pts to 22 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.8 vs their 15.2%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (−0.80× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Bears14.0%
right on their number · +1.3 vs their 12.6%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (+0.23× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 67.4%, 20.4 points above their season mean of 47.0% and 1.5 times their own 14.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kevin ToliverDBAkiem HicksDTBilal NicholsDTRoquan SmithLBKyle LongOGMike DavisRBRiley RidleyWRTaylor GabrielWR
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Cousins pass−9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:42) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 14-S.Diggs. Chicago challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs to CHI 34 for 10 yards (20-P.Amukamara). FUMBLES (20-P.Amukamara), RECOVERED by CHI-21-H.Clinton-Dix at CHI 20.
Q2 6:42 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at CHI 44 · gained 10 · -3.62 EP · −9.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 92 yards from the MIN 8 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
36%
Yards
491
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42-0.0062%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0688%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.9056%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.3556%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.350%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1425%
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0683%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Vikings0Bears6
Vikings0Bears7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 5
Punt11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 47
The period ended6 plays, from the Bears 5 to the Bears 25
2nd quarter41 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Bears 45
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Vikings 5 to the Bears 44
Vikings0Bears10
Field goal21 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Vikings 8
3rd quarter40 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Vikings0Bears13
Field goal4 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Vikings 14
Punt5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 33
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 16 to the Bears 25
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Vikings 36
Vikings0Bears16
Field goal11 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Vikings 12
The period ended10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 30
4th quarter51 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 5 to the Bears 12
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Bears 47
Vikings6Bears16
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Bears 2
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 40 to the Bears 44
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 26
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 24
The period ended3 plays, from the Vikings 27 to the Vikings 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -1
Closing total
38
Vikings moneyline
-108
Bears moneyline
-102
Vikings closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 38; the game landed 22 — under by 16.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 66°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Bears 6 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Matt Nagy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(4:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to MIN 41 for 10 yards (29-X.Rhodes).
1st · 7:50CHI +6% win prob(7:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Daniel pass short left to 29-T.Cohen for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:53CHI +6% win prob(9:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 33-D.Cook. PENALTY on CHI-39-E.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 11.
