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New England Patriots 16 at Buffalo Bills 10. Final.
Patriots -7 no coverU 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 4
New England Patriots 16, Bills 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:34, 3rd and 9, on J.Collins — 11.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:34 · 3rd and 9
J.Collins
Patriots
(1:34) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 15-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Collins at NE 38. 58-J.Collins to NE 49 for 11 yards (67-Q.Spain).
Patriots closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
New England Patriots 16–10. Biggest swing: Q4 1:34, Patriots +11.0% win probability on one snap.
11.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.BrownBillsQ4 14:26(14:26) M.Barkley in at QB. (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass deep right to 15-J.Brown to NE 17 for 28 yards (24-S.Gilmore). Caught along sideline at NE 18. Penalty on NE-24-S.Gilmore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
8.3pts
P.ChungPatriotsQ4 10:50(10:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-P.Chung at NE -2. Touchback. Ball deflected off hands of Z.Jones at NE 3 before INT. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass incomplete short right to 11-Z.Jones. Ball deflected off hands of Z.Jones at NE 3 before bouncing to P.Chung 2 yds. into end zone.
7.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 4 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 7 chunk plays, against Patriots at 3 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bills owned this one and still lost it — 37% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 27% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Billsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Patriots won this one — 5 of 17 on third down, against Bills at 2 of 13 on third down.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bills.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Patriots178 of 187 plays carry both curves
(1:34) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 15-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Collins at NE 38. 58-J.Collins to NE 49 for 11 yards (67-Q.Spain).
Swing −11.0 for BillsExpected points −2.03 for BillsThe model had Bills 6 points higher than the market did.play 183
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:34NE +11% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 15-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Collins at NE 38. 58-J.Collins to NE 49 for 11 yards (67-Q.Spain).
4th · 14:26BUF +8% win prob(14:26) M.Barkley in at QB. (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass deep right to 15-J.Brown to NE 17 for 28 yards (24-S.Gilmore). Caught along sideline at NE 18. Penalty on NE-24-S.Gilmore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
4th · 10:50NE +8% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-P.Chung at NE -2. Touchback. Ball deflected off hands of Z.Jones at NE 3 before INT. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass incomplete short right to 11-Z.Jones. Ball deflected off hands of Z.Jones at NE 3 before bouncing to P.Chung 2 yds. into end zone.
3rd · 10:40BUF +7% win prob(10:40) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 4:06NE +7% win prob(4:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Jackson [53-K.Van Noy] at BUF 43. 27-J.Jackson to BUF 42 for 1 yard (11-Z.Jones). Receiver and coverage along sideline. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
B.Bolden's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 7:39 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:39B.Bolden·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+66–0
1st6:30M.Slater·11-yd return TD11-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+713–0
2nd2:00S.Hauschka·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+313–3
3rd1:00S.Gostkowski·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+316–10
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryBills
Patriots3–5Bills
227Total yards375
3.8Yards per play5.4
27%Success rate37%
29%Third-down rate15%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays7
10First downs19
0Sacks taken5
1Turnovers4
The read
Bills ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Patriots, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.28Patriots: −0.28 expected points added per play
−0.27Bills: −0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.41Patriots: −0.41 expected points added per play
−0.40Bills: −0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Patriots: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.08Bills: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 59 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Bills’s 70 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 3, Bills 3.
NoteBills outgained Patriots 375-227 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's sack or hit rate turned over: 29.6% in week 3 against 13.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
51 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −2.5 vs their 16.2%, and they swing ±7.4 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Bills10.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.7 vs their 15.0%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−0.74× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBUF's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.9%, 16.2 points above their season mean of 54.7% and 1.3 times their own 12.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Barkley pass−16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:34) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 15-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Collins at NE 38. 58-J.Collins to NE 49 for 11 yards (67-Q.Spain).
Q4 1:34 · Bills · 3rd & 9 at NE 39 · gained nothing · -2.03 EP · −15.7% win probability
176 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 191 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 191 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 93 yards from the NE 5 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
191 of 191 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
191
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
31%
Yards
599
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR55-0.2482%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26-0.2873%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR16-0.0838%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR10-0.36100%
Bills2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.2820%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Patriots1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Bills2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Patriots2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bills2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
191 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
191 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter51 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 30
Intercepted8 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 40
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.5 seconds
Patriots6Bills0
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Bills 4
Patriots12Bills0
Touchdown6 plays
Patriots13Bills0
Punt9 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 35
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 6 to the Patriots 12
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 41 to the Patriots 48
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 40 to the Patriots 42
Intercepted19 plays, from the Patriots 5 to the Bills 2
Patriots13Bills3
Field goal6 plays, from the Bills 20 to the Patriots 20
Punt5 plays
No good9 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Patriots 26
3rd quarter42 plays
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldTwo backs and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFive linemen, four linebackers and two backsIn the boxEleven defenders
Patriots13Bills9
Patriots13Bills10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bills 25 to the Patriots 1
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 26
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 39 to the Bills 45
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Bills 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.9 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Bills 12 to the Bills 23
Patriots16Bills10
Field goal7 plays, from the Bills 42 to the Bills 4
The period ended5 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Patriots 47
4th quarter49 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Patriots 45 to the Patriots 2
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 3 to the Patriots 6
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Patriots 42
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Patriots 25
Punt7 plays, from the Bills 27 to the Bills 41
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 15 to the Patriots 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Patriots 39
The period ended5 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Patriots -7
Closing total
41.5
Patriots moneyline
-321
Bills moneyline
+274
Patriots closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 26 — under by 15.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 63°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the east; overcast.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Patriots 7 days · Bills 7 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Sean McDermott
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 6:30NE +6% win prob(6:30) 9-C.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by 27-J.Jackson, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by NE-18-M.Slater at BUF 11. 18-M.Slater for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:49BUF +6% win prob(9:49) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White to BUF 35 for 14 yards (23-M.Hyde). Caught near sideline at BUF 40.
3rd · 3:20BUF +6% win prob(3:20) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 10-J.Gordon pushed ob at BUF 7 for 31 yards (21-J.Poyer). Caught at BUF 30, crossing to sideline. Buffalo challenged the play for possible offensive pass interference, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #2.)
