2019 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2019 · New Era Field

New England PatriotsWinner

Buffalo Bills

NE -7 no coverU 41.5 ✓Patriots closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

New England Patriots 16–10. Biggest swing: Q4 1:34, NE +11% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:34NE — BUF BUF ball · 3rd & 9NE 88%

(1:34) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 15-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Collins at NE 38. 58-J.Collins to NE 49 for 11 yards (67-Q.Spain).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:34NE +11% win prob(1:34) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 15-J.Brown INTERCEPTED by 58-J.Collins at NE 38. 58-J.Collins to NE 49 for 11 yards (67-Q.Spain).
Q4 · 14:26BUF +8% win prob(14:26) M.Barkley in at QB. (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass deep right to 15-J.Brown to NE 17 for 28 yards (24-S.Gilmore). Caught along sideline at NE 18. Penalty on NE-24-S.Gilmore, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
Q4 · 10:50NE +8% win prob(10:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass short right intended for 11-Z.Jones INTERCEPTED by 23-P.Chung at NE -2. Touchback. Ball deflected off hands of Z.Jones at NE 3 before INT. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-M.Barkley pass incomplete short right to 11-Z.Jones. Ball deflected off hands of Z.Jones at NE 3 before bouncing to P.Chung 2 yds. into end zone.
Q3 · 10:40BUF +7% win prob(10:40) 17-J.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Bills
Offensive plays	59	70
Total yards	227	375 (edge)
Yards per play	3.8	5.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.28	-0.27 (edge)
Success rate	27%	37% (edge)
Dropback rate	66%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.41	-0.40 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02	0.08 (edge)
Third downs	5/17 (edge)	2/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	19 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1 (edge)	4

Bills outgained Patriots 375–227 but lost the turnover battle 4–1. That was the game.

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 15	6	15	1:43	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 24	5	11	2:45	Interception
3	NE	50	8	50	2:57	Touchdown
4	BUF	BUF 37	5	1	1:13	Defensive touchdown
5	BUF	BUF 25	8	33	3:27	Punt
6	NE	NE 6	4	6	1:23	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 41	3	6	1:30	Interception
8	NE	NE 29	4	1	0:25	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 40	5	18	2:10	Punt
10	NE	NE 5	16	76	8:19	Interception
11	BUF	BUF 20	6	47	2:13	Turnover on downs
12	NE	NE 25	5	0	0:23	Punt
13	BUF	BUF 32	8	37	1:32	Turnover on downs
14	BUF	BUF 25	11	75	4:23	Touchdown
15	NE	NE 23	5	2	1:37	Punt
16	BUF	BUF 39	4	-5	2:06	Punt
17	NE	BUF 46	4	6	1:27	Punt
18	BUF	BUF 12	3	11	1:30	Interception
19	NE	BUF 42	7	38	2:59	Turnover on downs
20	BUF	BUF 35	10	59	5:14	Turnover on downs
21	NE	NE 3	4	3	1:31	Punt
22	BUF	BUF 47	5	11	0:38	Punt
23	NE	NE 20	4	10	0:59	Punt
24	BUF	BUF 27	5	24	2:17	Punt
25	NE	NE 15	6	20	2:10	Punt
26	BUF	BUF 14	6	47	1:42	Interception
27	NE	NE 49	3	0	1:27	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 76 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a interception.

Box score unavailable

Player stat lines for this game have not been ingested yet. Scores, lines, and environment context above are complete.

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NE -7
Closing total: 41.5
NE moneyline: -321
BUF moneyline: +274

Patriots closed -7, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 26 — under by 15.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 58°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: NE 7 days · BUF 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Sean McDermott

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.