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polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:24 AM ET · 16 to play
Philadelphia Eagles 34 at Green Bay Packers 27. Final.
Packers -3.5 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 4
Philadelphia Eagles 34, Packers 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:28, 2nd and 3, on N.Bradham — 31.1 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:28 · 2nd and 3
N.Bradham
Eagles
(:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 83-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Bradham (39-C.James) at PHI -1. 53-N.Bradham to PHI 21 for 22 yards (10-D.Shepherd).
O 46 ✓
Packers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Philadelphia Eagles 34–27. Biggest swing: Q4 0:28, Eagles +31.1% win probability on one snap.
31.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
G.AllisonPackersQ2 0:14(:14) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 81-G.Allison for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.9pts
A.RodgersEaglesQ4 9:08(9:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Graham.
16.3pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Eagles won this one — +0.37 expected points per carry, against Packers at -0.28 expected points per carry.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Eagles won this one — 5 touchdowns on 5 trips, against Packers at 3 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Packers at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Eagles won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Packers at +0.17 expected points per snap.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 11 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Eagles172 of 179 plays carry both curves
(:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 83-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Bradham (39-C.James) at PHI -1. 53-N.Bradham to PHI 21 for 22 yards (10-D.Shepherd).
Swing −31.1 for PackersExpected points −4.95 for PackersThe model had Eagles 4 points higher than the market did.play 177
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:28PHI +31% win prob(:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 83-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Bradham (39-C.James) at PHI -1. 53-N.Bradham to PHI 21 for 22 yards (10-D.Shepherd).
4th · 9:08PHI +16% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Graham.
2nd · 0:14GB +14% win prob(:14) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 81-G.Allison for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00PHI +13% win prob(2:00) 12-A.Rodgers sacked at GB 22 for -7 yards (96-D.Barnett). FUMBLES (96-D.Barnett) [96-D.Barnett], RECOVERED by PHI-55-B.Graham at GB 21. 55-B.Graham to GB 17 for 4 yards (89-M.Lewis).
3rd · 4:40GB +12% win prob(4:40) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to PHI 29 for 26 yards (23-R.McLeod).
2nd · 0:31GB +12% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 81-G.Allison to PHI 19 for 31 yards (37-J.Cyprien).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Howard's 2-yard rushing touchdown with 14:17 left in the 4th put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th14:17J.Howard·2-yd TD run2-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+734–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Eaglescategory by categoryPackers
Eagles5–3Packers
338Total yards491
5.7Yards per play6.7
53%Success rate52%
56%Third-down rate55%
5Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays7
23First downs23
0Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Eagles ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.37 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Eagles: +0.29 expected points added per play
+0.17Packers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Eagles: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.29Packers: +0.29 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.37Eagles: +0.37 expected points added per play
−0.28Packers: −0.28 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 59 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Packers’s 73 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 5, Packers 7.
NotePackers outgained Eagles 491-338 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
GB's pass rate over expected, +11.6 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
73 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.6 points.
GB's early-down pass rate, 75.4%, sat 18.1 points above their season number of 57.3% — they passed early by 2.2 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 3.
61 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.3 points.
GB's sack or hit rate turned over: 20.0% in week 3 against 6.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
30 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −13.3 vs their 16.7%, and they swing ±10.1 week to week (−1.32× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Packers6.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.0 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.25× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.4%, 18.1 points above their season mean of 57.3% and 2.2 times their own 8.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Philadelphia Eagles
53 dressed · 8 never used
79Brandon BrooksG · Every snap100%62 snaps
73Isaac SeumaloG · Every snap100%62 snaps
65Lane JohnsonT · Every snap100%62 snaps
11Carson WentzQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
71Jason PetersOT · Every snap100%62 snaps
62Jason KelceC · Every snap100%62 snaps
13Nelson AgholorWR · Full-time90%56 snaps
17Alshon JefferyWR · Full-time81%50 snaps
86Zach ErtzTE · Heavy rotation76%47 snaps
88Dallas GoedertTE · Heavy rotation69%43 snaps
16Mack HollinsWR · Heavy rotation65%40 snaps
24Jordan HowardRB · Heavy rotation53%33 snaps
26Miles SandersRB · Rotational35%22 snaps
43Darren SprolesRB · Situational11%7 snaps
19J.J. Arcega-WhitesideWR · Situational10%6 snaps
85Alex EllisTE · Situational5%3 snaps
72Halapoulivaati VaitaiT · Situational5%3 snaps
Dressed, never took a snap · 8
Ronald DarbyCBShareef MillerDETimmy JerniganDTNate HerbigGMatt PryorOGJosh McCownQBNate SudfeldQBDeSean JacksonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass−27% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:28) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle intended for 83-M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by 53-N.Bradham (39-C.James) at PHI -1. 53-N.Bradham to PHI 21 for 22 yards (10-D.Shepherd).
Q4 0:28 · Packers · 2nd & goal at PHI 3 · gained nothing · -4.95 EP · −26.9% win probability
170 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 89 yards from the GB 11 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.20
Success rate
50%
Yards
827
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR61+0.1777%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.2856%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.2842%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Packers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 48
Eagles0Packers6
Eagles0Packers7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Eagles 3
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Packers 47
The period ended14 plays, from the Packers 10 to the Eagles 23
2nd quarter57 plays
Eagles0Packers10
Field goal4 plays, from the Eagles 15 to the Eagles 12
Eagles6Packers10
Eagles7Packers10
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 6
Eagles7Packers13
Field goal8 plays, from the Packers 24 to the Eagles 13
Eagles13Packers13
Eagles14Packers13
Touchdown14 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Packers 3
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 29
Eagles20Packers13
Eagles21Packers13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Packers 17 to the Packers 1
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Eagles21Packers19
Eagles21Packers20
Touchdown10 plays, from the Packers 30 to the Eagles 19
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter43 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 45
Eagles27Packers20
Touchdown9 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Packers 20
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 32
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 16 to the Eagles 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Eagles27Packers26
Eagles27Packers27
Touchdown9 plays, from the Packers 28 to the Eagles 14
The period ended8 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Packers 34
4th quarter42 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Eagles33Packers27
Eagles34Packers27
Touchdown3 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Packers 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.3 seconds
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Eagles 1
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 1 to the Packers 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Intercepted14 plays, from the Packers 11 to the Eagles 3
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -3.5
Closing total
46
Eagles moneyline
+169
Packers moneyline
-190
Packers closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 61 — over by 15.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lambeau Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 61°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 5 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Eagles 4 days · Packers 4 days
Coaches
Doug Pederson vs Matt LaFleur
2nd · 10:20GB +11% win prob(10:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams to PHI 36 for 40 yards (23-R.McLeod; 96-D.Barnett). Penalty on PHI-54-K.Grugier-Hill, Defensive Offside, declined. PENALTY on PHI-23-R.McLeod, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at PHI 36.
3rd · 3:21GB +10% win prob(3:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 80-J.Graham for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Eaglescategory by categoryPackers
Eagles0
Packers6
