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Seattle Seahawks 27 at Arizona Cardinals 10. Final.
Seahawks -5.5 ✓U 49 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 4
Seattle Seahawks 27, Cardinals 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 4:23, 2nd and 5, on J.Clowney — 11.1 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:23 · 2nd and 5
J.Clowney
Seahawks
(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 90-J.Clowney at ARI 27. 90-J.Clowney for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Seahawks closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Seattle Seahawks 27–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 4:23, Seahawks +11.1% win probability on one snap.
11.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
K.MurraySeahawksQ1 14:01(14:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 33 for -5 yards (56-M.Kendricks).
4.2pts
Z.GonzalezSeahawksQ1 9:48(9:48) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Winslow.
9.0pts
What separated them
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.11 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Seahawks won this one — +0.17 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.21 expected points per dropback.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Seahawks won this one — no giveaways, against Cardinals at 1 giveaway.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Seahawks154 of 164 plays carry both curves
(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 90-J.Clowney at ARI 27. 90-J.Clowney for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −11.1 for CardinalsExpected points −8.51 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 21 points higher than the market did.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:23SEA +11% win prob(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 90-J.Clowney at ARI 27. 90-J.Clowney for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:48SEA +9% win prob(9:48) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-9-R.Winslow.
1st · 14:01SEA +4% win prob(14:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 33 for -5 yards (56-M.Kendricks).
1st · 12:53ARI +4% win prob(12:53) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 16-T.Sherfield to SEA 45 for 15 yards (94-E.Ansah).
1st · 0:17ARI +4% win prob(:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 31-D.Johnson to SEA 20 for 31 yards (33-T.Thompson; 30-B.McDougald).
4th · 10:27ARI +4% win prob(10:27) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
J.Myers's 33-yard field goal with 5:03 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st5:03J.Myers·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.OttLead never changed again+33–0
Seahawks ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Seahawks: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.11Cardinals: −0.11 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.17Seahawks: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.21Cardinals: −0.21 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.13Seahawks: +0.13 expected points added per play
+0.06Cardinals: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Seahawks ran 59 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 58 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Seahawks 4, Cardinals 3.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.16 expected points added per play vs -0.11.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 70.2% in week 3 against 49.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
49 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.1 vs their 10.1%, and they swing ±4.9 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Cardinals17.6%
inside their normal wobble · +4.0 vs their 13.7%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 3.8 pts, 6.4 points above their season mean of -2.7 pts and 1.1 times their own 5.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Michael DogbeDTCharles WashingtonFSLamont GaillardGAndy LeePJoshua MilesTBrett TothTDamiere ByrdWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Brett HundleyQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Seahawks attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Seahawks←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
K.Murray pass−17% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 31-D.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 90-J.Clowney at ARI 27. 90-J.Clowney for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:23 · Cardinals · 2nd & 5 at ARI 30 · gained nothing · -8.51 EP · −17.0% win probability
152 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 164 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 164 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 80 yards from the ARI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, SEA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
164 of 164 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
164
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
44%
Yards
661
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0373%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR31+0.0971%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15-0.9260%
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9-0.0422%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.0238%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+1.1150%
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Seahawks0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
164 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
164 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
No good12 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 26
Seahawks3Cardinals0
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 33 to the Cardinals 15
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Seahawks9Cardinals0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 30
Seahawks10Cardinals0
The period ended10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 49
2nd quarter46 plays
Seahawks10Cardinals3
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Seahawks 15
Seahawks16Cardinals3
Seahawks17Cardinals3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 9
No good8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 30
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 38 to the Seahawks 47
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 6 to the Cardinals 10
The period ended1 play
Seahawks20Cardinals3
Field goal11 plays, from the Seahawks 44 to the Cardinals 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter32 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 42
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 19 to the Cardinals 20
Punt7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 42
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 24 to the Cardinals 43
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 9 to the Seahawks 25
4th quarter48 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Seahawks 15 to the Seahawks 29
Seahawks20Cardinals9
Seahawks20Cardinals10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Seahawks 9
Seahawks26Cardinals10
Seahawks27Cardinals10
Touchdown23 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Cardinals 2
The period ended11 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Seahawks 9
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
