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2019 Week 4 · Sun, Sep 29, 2019 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Final
BuccaneersTampa Bay55
BY 15final margin
RamsLos Angeles40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55 at Los Angeles Rams 40. Final.
Rams -9 upset
The verdict · 2019 Week 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55, Rams 40 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 8:25, 3rd and 9, on M.Peters — 20.4 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 8:25 · 3rd and 9
M.Peters
Rams
(8:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left intended for 85-B.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at TB 32. 22-M.Peters for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
O 48.5 ✓
Rams closed -9 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55–40. Biggest swing: Q4 8:25, Rams +20.4% win probability on one snap.
20.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
J.WhiteheadBuccaneersQ2 13:39(13:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 18-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Whitehead (58-S.Barrett) at TB 24. 31-J.Whitehead pushed ob at TB 35 for 11 yards (77-A.Whitworth; 17-R.Woods). PENALTY on LA-17-R.Woods, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 35.
14.8pts
L.DavidBuccaneersQ2 8:45(8:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 81-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David at LA 35. 54-L.David to LA 9 for 26 yards (77-A.Whitworth).
14.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Buccaneers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Rams at 4 giveaways.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Buccaneers won this one — +0.55 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.04 expected points per dropback.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Buccaneers won this one — 8 of 13 on third down, against Rams at 4 of 11 on third down.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Buccaneers won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Rams at -0.05 expected points per snap.
Buccaneersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Buccaneers212 of 224 plays carry both curves
(8:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left intended for 85-B.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at TB 32. 22-M.Peters for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +20.4 for RamsExpected points +5.98 for RamsThe model had Buccaneers 3 points higher than the market did.play 185
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 8:25TB +20% win prob(8:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left intended for 85-B.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at TB 32. 22-M.Peters for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 13:39TB +15% win prob(13:39) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 18-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 31-J.Whitehead (58-S.Barrett) at TB 24. 31-J.Whitehead pushed ob at TB 35 for 11 yards (77-A.Whitworth; 17-R.Woods). PENALTY on LA-17-R.Woods, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TB 35.
2nd · 8:45TB +15% win prob(8:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 81-G.Everett INTERCEPTED by 54-L.David at LA 35. 54-L.David to LA 9 for 26 yards (77-A.Whitworth).
4th · 1:17TB +13% win prob(1:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at LA 43 for -11 yards (58-S.Barrett). FUMBLES (58-S.Barrett) [58-S.Barrett], RECOVERED by TB-93-N.Suh at LA 37. 93-N.Suh for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:00LA +11% win prob(10:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. PENALTY on TB-56-R.Nunez-Roches, Unnecessary Roughness, 14 yards, enforced at TB 28 - No Play.
2nd · 11:33
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
P.Barber's 3-yard rushing touchdown with 10:57 left in the 1st put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 15 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:57P.Barber·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Buccaneers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.55 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Buccaneers: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.05Rams: −0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.55Buccaneers: +0.55 expected points added per play
−0.04Rams: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Buccaneers: −0.10 expected points added per play
−0.14Rams: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Buccaneers ran 72 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Rams’s 82 at 87%. Red-zone trips: Buccaneers 7, Rams 5.
NoteRams outgained Buccaneers 518-465 but lost the turnover battle 4-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LA's early-down pass rate, 84.1%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 4 — 8.6 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.1-swing turn from week 3.
69 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 14.1 points.
TB's sack or hit rate turned over: 28.9% in week 3 against 12.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
71 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −2.4 vs their 15.1%, and they swing ±7.2 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 71 dropbacks
Rams11.6%
right on their number · −2.6 vs their 14.2%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 84.1%, 25.8 points above their season mean of 58.3% and 1.8 times their own 14.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Buccaneers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Buccaneers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Winston pass−17% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(8:25) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep left intended for 85-B.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 22-M.Peters at TB 32. 22-M.Peters for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 8:25 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 9 at TB 12 · gained nothing · -5.98 EP · −17.1% win probability
210 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 224 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 224 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
14 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TB moving 87 yards from the TB 11 for a opp touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, TB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
224 of 224 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
224
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
45%
Yards
982
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR74-0.1385%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1978%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.4025%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Rams1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Buccaneers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Buccaneers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
224 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
224 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Buccaneers6Rams0
Buccaneers7Rams0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 40 to the Rams 3
Punt12 plays, from the Rams 25 to midfield
Punt13 plays, from the Buccaneers 9 to the Rams 37
The period ended7 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 43
2nd quarter69 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Buccaneers 34 to the Buccaneers 29
Buccaneers13Rams0
Buccaneers14Rams0
Touchdown8 plays, from midfield to the Rams 2
Intercepted4 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 31
Buccaneers20Rams0
Buccaneers21Rams0
Touchdown2 plays
Buccaneers21Rams6
Buccaneers21Rams7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 13
Punt6 plays
Buccaneers21Rams13
Buccaneers21Rams14
Touchdown6 plays, from midfield to the Buccaneers 5
Drive ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 39
Buccaneers27Rams14
Buccaneers28Rams14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Rams 47 to the Rams 5
Buccaneers28Rams17
Field goal9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 40
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Buccaneers28Rams20
Field goal17 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 14
Buccaneers31Rams20
Field goal11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Rams 40
Intercepted6 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 40
The period ended6 plays, from the Buccaneers 47 to the Rams 15
4th quarter72 plays
Buccaneers37Rams20
Buccaneers38Rams20
Touchdown2 plays
Buccaneers38Rams26
Buccaneers38Rams27
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 5
Buccaneers44Rams27
Buccaneers45Rams27
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Buccaneers 33
Buccaneers45Rams33
Buccaneers45Rams34
Touchdown11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Buccaneers45Rams40
Touchdown4 plays, from the Buccaneers 11 to the Buccaneers 12
Buccaneers48Rams40
Field goal15 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Rams 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Buccaneers54Rams40
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Buccaneers 36
Buccaneers55Rams40
The period ended11 plays, from the Rams 9 to the Rams 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -9
Closing total
48.5
Buccaneers moneyline
+385
Rams moneyline
-473
Rams closed -9 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 95 — over by 46.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 75°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 8 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Bradley Rogers
Rest
Buccaneers 7 days · Rams 7 days
Coaches
Bruce Arians vs Sean McVay
LA +9% win prob
(11:33) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 12-C.Godwin to LA 2 for 30 yards (32-E.Weddle).
3rd · 2:54TB +9% win prob(2:54) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 34-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 58-S.Barrett at TB 43. 58-S.Barrett pushed ob at TB 47 for 4 yards (79-R.Havenstein).
1st · 10:35TB +9% win prob(10:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 12-B.Cooks to LA 41 for 4 yards (54-L.David). PENALTY on LA-77-A.Whitworth, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 37 - No Play.
