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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:23 AM ET · 16 to play
Tennessee Titans 24, Falcons 10 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 12:09, 1st and 10, on A.Brown — 13.7 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:09 · 1st and 10
A.Brown
Titans
(12:09) 72-D.Quessenberry reported in as eligible. 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 46 ✓
Dome
Falcons closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 24–10. Biggest swing: Q1 12:09, Titans +13.7% win probability on one snap.
13.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
M.RyanTitansQ1 0:13(:13) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 44 for -10 yards (99-J.Casey). FUMBLES (99-J.Casey) [99-J.Casey], RECOVERED by TEN-99-J.Casey at TEN 46. 99-J.Casey to TEN 46 for no gain (81-A.Hooper). PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Butler, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
11.8pts
C.SantosTitansQ2 10:07(10:07) 7-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
8.8pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Titans won this one — -0.11 expected points per carry, against Falcons at -0.41 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.25 expected points per dropback, against Falcons at -0.06 expected points per dropback.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.06 expected points per snap, against Falcons at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 2 trips, against Titans at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Titans169 of 179 plays carry both curves
(12:09) 72-D.Quessenberry reported in as eligible. 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.7 for FalconsExpected points −4.74 for FalconsThe model had Titans 4 points higher than the market did.play 12
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:09ATL +14% win prob(12:09) 72-D.Quessenberry reported in as eligible. 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:13TEN +12% win prob(:13) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 44 for -10 yards (99-J.Casey). FUMBLES (99-J.Casey) [99-J.Casey], RECOVERED by TEN-99-J.Casey at TEN 46. 99-J.Casey to TEN 46 for no gain (81-A.Hooper). PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Butler, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
2nd · 10:07ATL +9% win prob(10:07) 7-C.Santos 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
3rd · 5:18TEN +8% win prob(5:18) 2-M.Ryan sacked at TEN 39 for -9 yards (58-H.Landry).
1st · 8:18ATL +8% win prob(8:18) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 84-C.Davis to TEN 36 for 16 yards (59-D.Campbell).
2nd · 9:15ATL +7% win prob(9:15) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones ran ob at ATL 41 for 11 yards (25-A.Jackson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.Brown's 11-yard touchdown catch with 2:32 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
3rd11:41M.Bryant·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Bosher · snap J.Harris+324–10
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryFalcons
Titans5–2Falcons
365Total yards422
6.0Yards per play5.6
46%Success rate41%
46%Third-down rate36%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
8Explosive plays8
18First downs22
0Sacks taken5
0Turnovers1
The read
Titans ahead 5–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Titans: +0.06 expected points added per play
−0.13Falcons: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.25Titans: +0.25 expected points added per play
−0.06Falcons: −0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Titans: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.41Falcons: −0.41 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 61 snaps at a 46% dropback rate against Falcons’s 75 at 80%. Red-zone trips: Titans 4, Falcons 2.
NoteFalcons outgained Titans 422-365 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.1% in week 3 against 18.3% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 64.9% in week 3 against 40.4% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +6.1 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.11× that swing) · 60 dropbacks
Falcons14.3%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 10.2%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.60× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 75.4%, 10.9 points above their season mean of 64.6% and 1.1 times their own 9.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Quessenberry reported+15% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:09) 72-D.Quessenberry reported in as eligible. 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 12:09 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 45 · gained 55 · +4.74 EP · +15.0% win probability
167 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 85 yards from the ATL 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
787
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53-0.1587%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR30-0.1727%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.1564%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR8+0.0963%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1550%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter48 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 39
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 17 to the Falcons 21
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Titans6Falcons0
Titans7Falcons0
Touchdown2 plays
Titans7Falcons6
Titans7Falcons7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Titans 1
Titans13Falcons7
Titans14Falcons7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Falcons 11
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Titans 34
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Titans 34 to the Titans 37
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Falcons 14
Titans17Falcons7
Field goal5 plays, from the Titans 38 to the Falcons 27
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Falcons 27 to the Titans 39
Titans23Falcons7
Titans24Falcons7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Falcons 23
No good13 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Titans 14
The period ended6 plays, from the Titans 22 to the Titans 28
3rd quarter42 plays
Titans24Falcons10
Field goal13 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Titans 14
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 45
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Falcons 5 to the Titans 30
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Falcons 49
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 10 to the Falcons 12
The period ended4 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Falcons 29
4th quarter40 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Falcons 24 to the Falcons 10
Drive ended10 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Titans 46
Drive ended2 plays, from the Titans 36 to the Titans 43
Turnover on downs2 plays, from the Titans 44 to the Titans 25
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Falcons 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Falcons 2 to the Falcons 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
