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Washington Commanders 3 at New York Giants 24. Final.
Giants -3 ✓U 48 ✓
The verdict · 2019 Week 4
New York Giants 24, Commanders 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 14:08, 3rd and 5, on R.Connelly — 12.4 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 14:08 · 3rd and 5
R.Connelly
Giants
(14:08) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short right intended for 19-R.Davis INTERCEPTED by 57-R.Connelly (20-Ja.Jenkins) at WAS 37. 57-R.Connelly to WAS 32 for 5 yards (8-C.Keenum).
Giants closed -3 and covered, winning by 21.
New York Giants 24–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 14:08, Giants +12.4% win probability on one snap.
12.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
S.ShepardGiantsQ1 10:13(10:13) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to WAS 2 for 13 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
6.5pts
J.PeppersGiantsQ3 1:29(1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle intended for 87-J.Sprinkle INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Peppers [94-D.Tomlinson] at WAS 32. 21-J.Peppers for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4.5pts
What separated them
Third down
Giants won this one — 8 of 12 on third down, against Commanders at 2 of 11 on third down.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.31 expected points per dropback, against Commanders at -0.57 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 50% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 29% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Giants won this one — -0.02 expected points per snap, against Commanders at -0.55 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Note
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Expected points are not on file for every man in this box score, so a side without one names nobody rather than naming its yardage leader.
No skill-position workloads on file for this game.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market saw this game the same way — never more than 4 points apart.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Commanders151 of 160 plays carry both curves
(14:08) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short right intended for 19-R.Davis INTERCEPTED by 57-R.Connelly (20-Ja.Jenkins) at WAS 37. 57-R.Connelly to WAS 32 for 5 yards (8-C.Keenum).
Swing +12.4 for GiantsExpected points +4.15 for GiantsModel and market agree here.play 5
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 14:08WAS +12% win prob(14:08) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short right intended for 19-R.Davis INTERCEPTED by 57-R.Connelly (20-Ja.Jenkins) at WAS 37. 57-R.Connelly to WAS 32 for 5 yards (8-C.Keenum).
1st · 10:13NYG +7% win prob(10:13) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to WAS 2 for 13 yards (35-M.Nicholson).
3rd · 1:29WAS +4% win prob(1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle intended for 87-J.Sprinkle INTERCEPTED by 21-J.Peppers [94-D.Tomlinson] at WAS 32. 21-J.Peppers for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:31WAS +4% win prob(8:31) 8-D.Jones pass deep left intended for 87-S.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar [97-T.Settle] at WAS 41. 23-Q.Dunbar to WAS 47 for 6 yards (12-C.Latimer).
1st · 11:41NYG +4% win prob(11:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 87-S.Shepard to WAS 19 for 5 yards (31-F.Moreau).
2nd · 2:52NYG +4% win prob(2:52) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins scrambles right end to NYG 1 for 14 yards (55-D.Mayo).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
W.Gallman Jr's 6-yard touchdown catch with 8:51 left in the 1st put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Giants ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.57 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.55Commanders: −0.55 expected points added per play
−0.02Giants: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.57Commanders: −0.57 expected points added per play
+0.31Giants: +0.31 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.49Commanders: −0.49 expected points added per play
−0.36Giants: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 48 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Giants’s 66 at 52%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 1, Giants 4.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.02 expected points added per play vs -0.55.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 3 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 40.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -25 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · −2.9 vs their 14.7%, and they swing ±5.8 week to week (−0.50× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Giants18.2%
inside their normal wobble · +3.8 vs their 14.4%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.59× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2019 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 41.5%, 18.9 points below their season mean of 60.4% and 2.1 times their own 9.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Chad SladeGTae DavisILBAlec OgletreeLBEric SmithOTAlex TanneyQBSaquon BarkleyRBKaden SmithTE
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Spencer PulleyCEli ManningQB
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Keenum pass−10% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(14:08) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short right intended for 19-R.Davis INTERCEPTED by 57-R.Connelly (20-Ja.Jenkins) at WAS 37. 57-R.Connelly to WAS 32 for 5 yards (8-C.Keenum).
Q1 14:08 · Commanders · 3rd & 5 at WAS 30 · gained nothing · -4.15 EP · −10.2% win probability
149 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 160 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 160 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 94 yards from the NYG 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
160 of 160 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
160
EPA per play
-0.21
Success rate
41%
Yards
565
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2359%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.6373%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.3733%
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
160 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
160 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 30
Commanders0Giants6
Commanders0Giants7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 32 to the Commanders 1
Punt10 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 38
The period ended9 plays, from the Giants 6 to the Commanders 45
2nd quarter53 plays
Commanders0Giants13
Commanders0Giants14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Commanders 44 to the Commanders 1
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 19 to the Commanders 25
Intercepted2 plays, from the Giants 17 to the Giants 40
Punt4 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Giants 21
Commanders3Giants14
Field goal15 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Giants 1
Commanders3Giants17
Field goal15 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Commanders 2
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 38
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 13 to the Commanders 20
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Commanders 5
Commanders3Giants23
Touchdown2 plays, from the Commanders 2 to the Commanders 22
Commanders3Giants24
The period ended5 plays, from the Commanders 10 to the Commanders 11
4th quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 22 to the Commanders 27
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 31
Intercepted5 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Giants 43
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Giants 41
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 3 to the Commanders 11
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Giants 35 to the Giants 36
Intercepted3 plays, from the Giants 37 to the Giants 31
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Commanders 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Giants -3
Closing total
48
Commanders moneyline
+146
Giants moneyline
-163
Giants closed -3 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 48; the game landed 27 — under by 21.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Mild, 75°F at kickoff; breezy at 10 mph out of the north; clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Commanders 6 days · Giants 7 days
Coaches
Jay Gruden vs Pat Shurmur
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 7:14NYG +4% win prob(7:14) (Shotgun) 8-C.Keenum pass short middle to 25-C.Thompson to WAS 37 for 8 yards (31-M.Thomas; 36-S.Chandler).
2nd · 6:41WAS +4% win prob(6:41) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle intended for 87-S.Shepard INTERCEPTED by 23-Q.Dunbar at NYG 37. 23-Q.Dunbar to NYG 37 for no gain (87-S.Shepard).
